عوامل قیمتی و غیر قیمتی مؤثر بر عرضه صادرات بادام ایران: کاربرد مدل خودتوضیحی با وقفه های گسترده
قاسم لیانی
1
(
استادیار دانشگاه شهرکرد گروه مدیریت و توسعه روستایی دکتری اقتصاد کشاورزی
)
حبیب امینی
2
(
گروه مدیریت و توسعه روستایی دانشکده کشاورزی دانشگاه شهرکرد
)
کلید واژه: صادرات بادام, نرخ ارز, تحریم, تولید بادام, قیمت نسبی ,
چکیده مقاله :
چکیده:
مقدمه: بررسی عوامل مؤثر بر عرضه صادرات محصولات کشاورزی از اهمیت راهبردی برخوردار است، چراکه این مطالعات می‌توانند با شناسایی موانع و فرصت‌های پیش‌روی صادرات، به سیاست‌گذاران در طراحی برنامه‌های عملیاتی برای افزایش توان صادراتی کشور کمک نمایند.
مواد و روش: در این مطالعه تلاش شد تا اثر متغیرهای قیمتی و غیرقیمتی در بلندمدت و کوتاه مدت بر عرضه صادرات بادام ایران ارزیابی شود. به منظور دستیابی به اهداف مطالعه از روش اقتصادسنجی خود توضیحی با وقفههای گسترده (ARDL) و دادههای سالهای 2023-1990 استفاده شد.
نتایج: نتایج نشان داد متغیرهای قیمت نسبی و نرخ ارز در بلندمدت به‌ترتیب با ضرایب 07/1 و 84/0 اثر مثبت و معناداری بر عرضه صادرات بادام دارند، که حاکی از حساسیت بالای صادرات به شرایط قیمتی و رقابتی بین‌المللی است. در مقابل، اثر سرمایه گذاری مستقیم خارجی و تحریم بر عرضه صادرات بادام منفی بدست آمده است. در کوتاه‌مدت نیز ضریب برآوردی متغیر تولید داخلی بادام و قیمت نسبی به ترتیب 59/0 و 35/0 برآورد شد. بنابراین انتظار میرود با افزایش تولید داخلی این محصول و افزایش قیمت جهانی در مقایسه با قیمت داخلی بادام، عرضه صادرات این محصول افزایش یابد. تأثیر رشد تولیدناخالص داخلی ایران نیز بر صادات این محصول باغی مثبت ارزیابی شد. اثر متغیر آزادسازی تجاری بر صادرات بادام در بلندمدت و کوتاه مدت متفاوت است. بر اساس نتایج انتظار میرود در بلندمدت این متغیر اثر مثبتی بر عرضه صادرات بادام ایران داشته باشد، در حالی که وقفه آن در کوتاه‌مدت اثر منفی و معناداری را نشان می‌دهد.
نتیجه گیری: بر اساس نتایج تحقیق، توصیه می‌شود سیاست‌گذاران از طریق حمایت هدفمند از تولیدکنندگان (اعم از تأمین نهاده‌های باکیفیت و توسعه فناوری‌های فرآوری) و مدیریت هوشمند نرخ ارز، زمینه را برای افزایش رقابت‌پذیری قیمتی بادام ایران در بازارهای جهانی فراهم نمایند. همچنین اجرای تدریجی آزادسازی تجاری همراه با بسته‌های حمایتی (مانند بیمه صادرات و تسهیلات مالی) برای کاهش شوک‌های کوتاه‌مدت، رفع موانع تحریمی و جذب سرمایه‌گذاری‌های خارجی در زنجیره ارزش بادام ضروری به نظر می‌رسد. این اقدامات می‌تواند توأمان به افزایش تولید داخلی و توسعه پایدار صادرات بینجامد.
چکیده انگلیسی :
Abstract
Introduction: Understanding the factors that affect the export supply of agricultural products is strategically crucial, as these studies can help policymakers identify barriers and opportunities for export development (Aghamiri et al., 2024). This process, in turn, can facilitate the creation of operational programs designed to enhance the country's export capacity. Considering the review of past studies, the necessity of conducting a systematic study that can simultaneously examine the effects of price factors (such as exchange rates and relative prices) and non-price factors (such as production volume, trade liberalization, gross domestic product growth, investment, and economic sanctions) on Iranian almond exports is becoming more and more apparent. This study aims to identify the contribution of each of these variables in determining the export supply of Iranian almonds and, using the analytical framework of the ARDL model, can provide two key achievements: (1) Identifying leverage points (variables with the highest and lowest impact) to improve competitiveness in global markets, (2) Providing differentiated policy solutions for stakeholders (producers, traders, and policymakers) based on the short-term and long-term effects of these factors. So far, many studies in Iran have not addressed the export supply of horticultural products, including almonds. Therefore, this study, with a practical perspective, paves the way for increasing Iran's share in the highly competitive global almond market. Especially given the recent fluctuations in production and institutional challenges, achieving a sustainable model for developing the export of this strategic product is an undeniable necessity.
Materials and Methods: This study evaluates how both price and non-price determinants impact Iran’s almond export supply in both the short and long run. The econometric analysis uses the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model with annual data ranging from 1990 to 2023 to fulfill this objective.
Results and Discussion: The analysis reveals that relative prices and exchange rate variables significantly and positively influence almond export supply in the long run, with estimated coefficients of 1.07 and 0.84, respectively. These findings indicate a strong sensitivity of almond exports to international pricing and competitiveness conditions. Conversely, foreign direct investment and economic sanctions negatively affect the almond export supply. In the short run, the coefficients for domestic almond production and relative prices are estimated at 0.59 and 0.35, respectively, suggesting that an increase in domestic production and higher world prices compared to domestic prices are likely to enhance almond export supply. Additionally, economic growth, as measured by GDP, positively influences almond export performance. Moreover, the effect of trade liberalization on almond exports varies between the short and long run; it has a negative and significant impact in the short term but turns positive in the long run, indicating a necessary adjustment period before realizing the full benefits.
Conclusion: The empirical findings suggest that policymakers should support almond producers through targeted interventions—such as ensuring access to high-quality inputs and promoting processing technologies—while also adopting strategic exchange rate management to improve the global price competitiveness of Iranian almonds. Furthermore, a phased implementation of trade liberalization, coupled with supportive measures like export insurance and financial incentives, is essential to alleviate short-term shocks, navigate sanction-related challenges, and attract foreign investment throughout the almond value chain. Such coordinated efforts could jointly foster increased domestic production and sustainable export growth.
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