تحلیل اثرات بلندمدت و کوتاه مدت شاخص توسعه انسانی، فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات و مخارج آموزش بر بیکاری زنان در ایران
محورهای موضوعی : زن و جامعه
1 - استادیار دانشکده اقتصاد دانشگاه علامه طباطبائی
کلید واژه: توسعه انساني, بيكاري زنان, ICT, مخارج آموزشی دولت, آزمون كرانههاي ARDL .,
چکیده مقاله :
استفاده بهینه از تمام ظرفیتهای عوامل تولید، از جمله نیروی کار، سرمایه، و زمین، نقشی اساسی در رشد و توسعه اقتصادی ایفا میکند. زنان بهعنوان نیمی از جمعیت، نقش کلیدی در این فرآیند دارند، کاهش بیکاری زنان نه تنها به بهبود وضعیت معیشتی خانوادهها کمک میکند، بلکه نقش مهمی در افزایش بهرهوری اقتصادی، کاهش فقر، و ارتقای عدالت جنسیتی دارد. با این حال، نرخ بالای بیکاری زنان نشاندهنده نارساییهای ساختاری و شکاف جنسیتی در بازار کار ایران است. از سوی دیگر، رشد فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات، توسعه انسانی، و سرمایهگذاری در بخش آموزش میتوانند نقش مهمی در کاهش بیکاری زنان ایفا کنند.
این مطالعه با هدف بررسی رابطه بلندمدت و کوتاهمدت میان بیکاری زنان و شاخص توسعه انسانی، فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات، مخارج آموزشی دولت در بازه زمانی 1370 تا 1400 انجام شده است. متغیرهای مورد بررسی شامل شاخص توسعه انسانی، فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات(ICT)، مخارج آموزشی دولت و شاخص قیمت تولیدکننده بوده و از مدل (ARDL)استفاده شده است. یافتههای نشان میدهد شاخص توسعه انسانی به طور معنادار و منفی بر نرخ بیکاری زنان تأثیرگذار است و این اثر در هر دو دوره کوتاهمدت و بلندمدت پایدار است. در بلندمدت، تمامی متغیرهای مورد بررسی شامل شاخص توسعه انسانی، فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات ، و مخارج آموزشی دولت تأثیر منفی و معناداری بر کاهش بیکاری زنان داشتهاند. با این حال، در کوتاهمدت، شاخص قیمت تولیدکننده تأثیری معنادار بر بیکاری زنان نشان نداده است. مهمترین نتیجه این پژوهش، برجسته شدن نقش شاخص توسعه انسانی به عنوان اثرگذارترین عامل در کاهش بیکاری زنان در بلندمدت است . این یافتهها ضرورت اتخاذ سیاستگذاریهای هدفمند در راستای ارتقای شاخصهای توسعه انسانی، توسعه زیرساختهای فناوری اطلاعات و ارتباطات، و افزایش سرمایهگذاری در حوزه آموزش را برجسته میکند. بهرهگیری از این سیاستها میتواند به کاهش فقر و افزایش مشارکت اقتصادی زنان، به ویژه در مناطق محروم، بیانجامد.
Introduction : Optimizing the utilization of all production factors, including labor, capital, and land, plays a vital role in economic growth and development. Women, as half of the population, hold a critical position in this process. Reducing women’s unemployment not only improves household welfare but also enhances economic productivity, alleviates poverty, and promotes gender equity. However, the persistently high unemployment rate among women reflects structural deficiencies and gender gaps in Iran’s labor market. Meanwhile, the growth of information and communication technology (ICT), human development, and public investment in education are potential drivers that could significantly reduce women’s unemployment.
Method:This study examines the long-term and short-term relationships between women’s unemployment and the Human Development Index (HDI), ICT, and government education expenditures over the period 1991–2021. The variables analyzed include HDI, ICT, government education expenditures, and the Producer Price Index (PPI). The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was employed to analyze these relationships.
Results: The findings reveal that the HDI has a significant and negative impact on women’s unemployment in both the short and long terms. In the long term, all examined variables, including HDI, ICT, and government education expenditures, have significant negative effects on reducing women’s unemployment. However, in the short term, the PPI does not exhibit a significant impact. The most notable result highlights the HDI as the most influential factor in reducing women’s unemployment in the long term, surpassing other variables in importance.
Conclusion: These results underscore the necessity of targeted policymaking to enhance human development indicators, expand ICT infrastructure, and increase investment in education. Such policies can play a pivotal role in reducing poverty and boosting women’s economic participation, particularly in underprivileged areas. Leveraging these strategies is essential to achieve sustainable development and gender equity
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