تحلیل عوامل رفتاری و روانی بر ناهنجاری‌های بازار سهام و تصمیم‌های سرمایه‌گذاران
مهرداد نعمتی
1
(
عضو هیئت علمی گروه مدیریت دانشگاه ایلام
)
سامان رحمانی نوروزآباد
2
(
دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی
)
کلید واژه: تصمیم‌های سرمایه‌گذاران, عوامل رفتاری و روانی, ناهنجاری‌های بازار سهام.,
چکیده مقاله :
مالی رفتاری به مطالعه متغیرهای روانشناختی که می‌تواند بر تصمیم‌گیری مالی تأثیر بگذارد کمک می‌کند. بنابراین، قبل از هر تصمیم سرمایه‌گذاری برای به حداکثر رساندن ثروت، بهتر است که ویژگی‌های بازارهای اوراق بهادار را با استفاده از ترکیبی از روانشناسی و مالی درک کرد. هدف پژوهش حاضر شناسایی تاثیر عوامل رفتاری و روانی بر ناهنجاری‌های بازار سهام و تصمیم‌های سرمایه‌گذاران در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران می‌باشد. در این پژوهش میدانی، به منظور جمع‌آوری داده‌ها از پرسشنامه‌ی استاندارد استفاده شده است. جامعه‌ی آماری این پژوهش سرمایه‌گذاران حقیقی در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران می‌باشد و از این جامعه‌ی آماری، 302 نفر از سرمایه‌گذاران به طور تصادفی ساده در دسترس و با استفاده از فرمول کوکران انتخاب و مورد بررسی قرار گرفتند. به منظور بررسی روابط بین متغیرهای پژوهش از تکنیک مدل‌یابی معادلات ساختاری و نرم‌افزار LISREL استفاده گردیده است. نتایج شاخص‌های خوبی برازش مانند RMSEA، GFI و AGFI نشان دهنده‌ی برازش خوب مدل و قابل استفاده بودن نتایج می‌باشد. نتایج بدست آمده حاکی از آن است که تاثیر اعتماد به نفس بیش از حد، تعصب گله‌ای، اثر تمایل، سواد مالی و تمایل به ریسک بر ناهنجاری‌های بنیادی و ناهنجاری‌های تکنیکال مثبت و معنادار است. همچنین ناهنجاری‌های بنیادی و ناهنجاری‌های تکنیکال تاثیر مثبت و معناداری بر تصمیم‌های سرمایه‌گذاران دارد. بر اساس تجزیه و تحلیل داده‌ها، مشخص شد سوگیری‌های رفتاری و ناهنجاری‌های بازار ارتباط نزدیکی با یکدیگر دارند. یافته‌های نقش واسطه‌ای ناهنجاری‌های بازار را در ارتباط با تصمیم‌گیری سرمایه‌گذاران تأیید کرد.
چکیده انگلیسی :
Behavioral finance helps in studying psychological variables that can influence financial decision-making. Therefore, before making any investment decision to maximize wealth, it is better to understand the characteristics of securities markets using a combination of psychology and finance. The present study aims to identify the impact of behavioral and psychological factors on stock market anomalies and investor decisions in the Tehran Stock Exchange. In this field study, a standard questionnaire was used to collect data. The statistical population of this research consists of individual investors in the Tehran Stock Exchange, and from this population, 302 investors were randomly selected and examined using Cochran’s formula. To examine the relationships between the research variables, the structural equation modeling technique and LISREL software were used. The results of good fit indices such as RMSEA, GFI, and AGFI indicate a good fit of the model and the usability of the results. The findings suggest that the impact of overconfidence, herd bias, disposition effect, financial literacy, and risk tolerance on fundamental and technical anomalies is positive and significant. Additionally, fundamental and technical anomalies have a positive and significant impact on investor decisions. Based on data analysis, it was found that behavioral biases and market anomalies are closely related. The findings confirmed the mediating role of market anomalies in relation to investor decision-making. The results showed that investors act irrationally in their decisions, which is likely to cause anomalies in the market.
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