خوانش محرک های اثرگذار تقسیمات کشوری بر تحولات فضایی شهرها (مطالعه موردی: منطقه 18 و 19 شهر تهران)
سید حسین هاشمی نسب
1
(
دانشجوی دکتری، گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، واحد اسلامشهر، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اسلامشهر، ایران
)
فاطمه ادیبی سعدی نژاد
2
(
استادیار، گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، واحد اسلامشهر، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اسلامشهر، ایران
)
حمیدرضا جودکی
3
(
استادیار، گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، واحد اسلامشهر، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اسلامشهر، ایران
)
آزاده اربابی سبزواری
4
(
دانشیار، گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، واحد اسلامشهر، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اسلامشهر، ایران
)
ناصر عبادتی
5
(
دانشیار، گروه زمین شناسی، واحد اسلامشهر، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اسلامشهر، ایران
)
کلید واژه: تقسیمات کشوری, تحولات فضایی, ساماندهی سیاسی فضا, کلان¬شهر تهران.,
چکیده مقاله :
تقسیمات کشوری یکی از عوامل تأثیرگذار بر تحولات فضایی در شهرها است که میتواند به تغییرات عمدهای در ساختار و توسعه شهری منجر شود. این تغییرات ممکن است باعث پراکندهرویی، گسترش بافتهای حاشیهای و ایجاد چالشهای جدید در توزیع منابع و خدمات شهری شود. در این راستا تحقیق حاضر با هدف خوانش محرکهای اثرگذار تقسیمات کشوری بر تحولات فضایی منطقه 18 و 19 شهر تهران با تاکید بر پراکندهرویی و شکلگیری بافتهای حاشیهای انجام شده است. با توجه به اهداف تحقيق و مؤلفههاي مورد بررسي نوع تحقيق کاربردي و روش بررسي آن توصيفي- تحليلي است. دادههای نظری با روش اسنادی و دادههای تجربی با روش پیمایشی بر پایه تکنیک دلفی تهیهشده است. جامعه آماری 20 نفر از خبرگان و متخصصین بر اساس نمونهگیری قضاوتی یا هدفمند است که 35 عامل در قالب 5 بعد اصلی با روش تحلیل اثرات متقابل ساختاری در نرمافزار MICMAC پردازششده است. یافتهها از نظر تحلیل اثرات متقابل، بیانگر پراکندگی عوامل در وضعیتی پیچیده و بینابین از اثرگذاری و اثرپذیری است؛ نظام خوشهبندی عوامل حاکی از تمرکز در خوشه تاثیرپذیر است. از میان 35 نیروی پیش برنده، عوامل افزایش قیمت زمین و مسکن، کاهش توسعه زیرساختهای شهری در حاشیه، کاهش سیاستهای مدیریت زمین و مسکن، گسترش سکونتگاههای غیررسمی، افزایش نابرابریهای درآمدی بین مناطق، افزایش صنایع غیررسمی در مناطق حاشیهای، افزایش تخریب محیطزیست، افزایش استفاده از زمینهای بلااستفاده، تغییرات در ساختار اقتصادی، افزایش تداخلات مدیریتی بین نهادها، افزایش ساختوسازهای غیرمجاز، در مناطق مورد مطالعه بیشترین میزان تأثیرگذاری مستقیم را داشتند.
چکیده انگلیسی :
Administrative divisions are one of the influential factors affecting spatial transformations in cities, which can lead to significant changes in urban structure and development. These changes may result in urban sprawl, the expansion of peripheral areas, and new challenges in the distribution of urban resources and services. This research aims to analyze the driving forces of administrative divisions on spatial transformations in Districts 18 and 19 of Tehran, with a particular focus on urban sprawl and the formation of peripheral areas. Given the research objectives and the components under investigation, the research is applied and descriptive-analytical in nature. Theoretical data was collected through document analysis, while empirical data was collected using a survey based on the Delphi technique. The study population consisted of 20 experts and specialists, selected through purposive sampling. Thirty-five factors, categorized into five main dimensions, were analyzed using the MICMAC method. The findings, in terms of interdependence analysis, indicate a complex interplay of factors. The clustering system shows a concentration in the dependent cluster. Among the 35 driving forces, factors such as increasing land and housing prices, decreasing urban infrastructure development in peripheral areas, decreasing land and housing management policies, the expansion of informal settlements, increasing income inequality between regions, increasing informal industries in peripheral areas, increasing environmental degradation, increasing the use of unused land, changes in economic structure, increasing managerial overlaps between institutions, increasing unauthorized construction,
Extended Abstract
Introduction
In Iran, metropolises such as Tehran, due to population pressure and lack of sufficient infrastructure in the central areas, witness the expansion of peripheral tissues in their peripheral areas. These contexts often lack proper urban planning and sufficient infrastructural facilities, which lead to a decrease in the quality of life of the residents and aggravation of social and economic problems. The country's divisions, which unequally distribute resources and facilities among different urban areas, play a significant role in aggravating these inequalities. Another negative result of ineffective country divisions is increasing pressure on urban infrastructure. The excessive expansion of cities and the mismatch of spatial development with infrastructure capacities lead to a decline in the quality of public services and create management crises in cities. In this situation, providing services such as water, electricity, sewage and public transportation to scattered and marginal areas is associated with high costs, and often due to limited resources, these services are unevenly distributed among different areas. In addition, country divisions can lead to the weakening of social cohesion in cities. Marginal areas formed due to sprawl often lack strong social interactions and a sense of solidarity among residents. Due to the lack of access to suitable economic and social opportunities, these areas become centers of social problems such as unemployment, crime and poverty. This situation aggravates social disharmony and causes social tensions in urban areas.
Methodology
This research, adopting a foresight approach, aims to identify the most significant drivers of administrative divisions on spatial transformations in Districts 18 and 19 of Tehran, with a particular focus on urban sprawl and the formation of peripheral areas. The study employs a mixed-methods approach, combining document analysis and a Delphi survey, and is grounded in novel foresight methods. A combination of quantitative and qualitative models is utilized for analysis. The Delphi method was used to identify the barriers, with document analysis providing the initial data. A purposive sampling technique was employed to select a panel of experts due to the non-generalizable nature of the study. The criteria for selecting experts included theoretical expertise, practical experience, willingness to participate, and accessibility. A total of 20 experts in urban geography, urban planning, and regional planning were selected. The MICMAC method was used to analyze the data. The Delphi method identified 35 primary factors categorized into four dimensions: economic, social, physical, and institutional-managerial.
Results and Discussion
The analysis of the mutual effects of 35 drivers of country divisions on the spatial developments of the 18th and 19th districts of Tehran, emphasizing the dispersion and formation of marginal tissues, through the 35x35 matrix, shows a complex and highly interactive system. The filling degree of 97.14% of this matrix shows the wide effects and deep interactions between different factors. This high level of saturation shows that the selected stimuli have played a significant role in shaping the spatial evolution of the region, and the influence of none of them can be completely ignored.
Out of a total of 1190 possible relationships in the matrix, only 74 relationships have been identified with a zero value, which means no influence and influence among these specific factors. This low number of unrelated relationships indicates that most of the factors are in a network of mutual effects. Relationships with a value of one (208 items) also indicate weak effects between some factors, but are still significant in the overall framework of the analysis.Major part of the matrix relationships, namely 756 relationships, are marked with a value of 2, which indicates a relatively strong influence between the factors. This issue indicates that many stimuli have systematic connections and deep influence on the process of spatial developments. This level of relatively strong impact highlights the importance of planned and coordinated policy interventions to manage sprawl and marginal tissues. Finally, 226 relationships with a value of 3, as the highest level of influence, indicate key relationships between factors. These relationships show that a number of stimuli not only have a high impact, but are also mutually influenced by other factors. These findings emphasize that for the optimal management of the spatial developments of regions 18 and 19, there is a need to analyze these key relationships and design comprehensive and integrated strategies.
Conclusion
The findings of this research showed that the general pattern of dispersion of the factors affecting the country divisions on the spatial developments in terms of the analysis of mutual effects, as a whole, indicates the state of an unstable environmental system in which the studied factors in terms of effectiveness and effectiveness are complex and It has intermediates. The state of clustering is indicative of cluster concentration in the area of influential factors. Among the 35 driving forces, 13 factors have a key effect on the situation of the subject under study in the 18th and 19th districts of Tehran. Therefore, it can be concluded that the increase in the price of land and housing has become one of the main drivers of country divisions in the spatial developments of Tehran's 18th and 19th districts, with emphasis on dispersion and the formation of marginal structures. This issue, along with the reduction of urban infrastructure development in marginal areas, has become the basis for the expansion of spatial inequalities and unbalanced access to urban services. The lack of effective policies in land and housing management has led to the non-optimal use of urban land and the expansion of informal settlements, which has led to a decrease in the quality of life and an increase in poverty in these areas. From the economic and social point of view, the expansion of informal settlements and the increase of informal industries in marginal areas have weakened the economic structures of these areas and caused an increase in income inequality. These factors have caused citizens' access to sustainable economic opportunities to decrease and marginal areas to become centers of poverty and social harm. Also, the inappropriate distribution of urban facilities and services has widened the gap between central and peripheral areas and minimized social interactions. Finally, management interactions between institutions and weakness in policy coordination have led to an increase in unauthorized constructions and environmental destruction. The increase in the use of unused land and the destruction of agricultural land for marginal development indicate ineffective management in these areas. These issues, in addition to threatening natural resources, have caused the sustainable development in these areas to face serious challenges. In general, to reduce the negative consequences of these factors, special attention should be paid to the implementation of integrated management policies, fair distribution of facilities and conservation of natural resources.
