اثرات اقتصادی و زیست محیطی سیاست‏های حمایتی دولت بر محصولات زراعی دشت رامجرد استان فارس

محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی

سمانه رحمانی ¹ , فاطمه فتحی ² , زهرا زهرا کوهی کراده ³ , زهرا مرادنژاد دیل ⁴

1 - بخش اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز
2 - اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشکده کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران
3 - بخش اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز
4 - بخش اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه شیراز

تاریخ دریافت : 1403/08/20 تاریخ پذیرش : 1404/05/03 تاریخ انتشار : 1404/05/03

کلید واژه: سیاست حمایت دولت, نرخ ارز, الگوی بهینه کشت, مصرف آب, برنامه ریزی ریاضی مثبت,

چکیده مقاله :

 

 تحقیق حاضر اثرات افزایش قیمت خرید تضمینی را تا سطح قیمت جهانی در قالب دو سناریو نرخ ارز بازار آزاد و ترجیحی بررسی می‌کند. همچنین اثرات حذف یارانه کودهای شیمیایی بر الگوی کشت، درآمد کشاورزان و مصرف نهاده‌ها با هدف تحلیل آثار درآمدی و زیست‌محیطی در دشت رامجرد  بررسی شد. در این مطالعه از مدل برنامه‌ريزي رياضي مثبت (PMP) برای بررسی سه سناریو دکر شده، استفاده شد. داده ها بر اساس اطلاعات آماری سال زراعی 1400-1401 از طریق پرسشنامه و آمارنامه جهاد کشاورزی استان فارس بدست آمد: نتایج نشان دادند در سناریو اول سطح زیر کشت محصولات آب‌اندوز بویژه گندم افزایش و در مقابل سطح زیر کشت محصولات آب‌بر همچون برنج و گوجه‌فرنگی کاهش می‌یابد. در سناریوی دوم، سطح زیر کشت محصولات آب‌اندوز مانند کلزا و جو کاهش می‌یابد. در سناریوی سوم سطح زیر کشت گندم کاهش یافته و این سناریو با 2/1% بیش‌ترین کاهش مصرف آب را به همراه داشت. میانگین درآمد کشاورزان در دو سناریو اول افزایش می‌یابد؛ اما در سناریو سوم کاهش قابل توجهی در درآمد کشاورزان مشاهده می‌شود. مصرف انواع کود شیمیایی نیز تحت دو سناریوی اول افزایش می‌یابد، اما در سناریوی سوم کاهشی در مصرف کود نیتراته مشاهده نمی‌شود. افزایش قیمت محصولات ممکن است منجر به تغییرات در الگوهای کشت شود که بر مصرف آب و درآمد کشاورزان تأثیر می‌گذارد. همچنین حذف یارانه‌‌ی کودهای شیمیایی به نظر می‌رسد تأثیر منفی بر درآمد کشاورزان داشته، اما منجر به کاهش مصرف آب و سطح زیر کشت محصولات آب‌برمی‌گردد. 

 

 

 

چکیده انگلیسی:

 

Governments often implement policies to support agricultural production, primarily to ensure food security and strengthen farmers' livelihoods. This study analyzes the effects of aligning guaranteed crop purchase prices with global levels under two scenarios: free market and preferential exchange rates. It also evaluates the impact of removing chemical fertilizer subsidies on crop patterns, farmers' income, and input use in the Ramjerd plain of Fars province. Materials and Methods: In this study, a Positive Mathematical Programming (PMP) model was used to analyze three scenarios. Data were collected through questionnaires and statistical reports from the Agricultural Jihad Organization of Fars Province for the agricultural year 1400-1401. Findings: The results indicated that in the first scenario, the area under cultivation for water-saving crops, particularly wheat, increased, while the area for water-intensive crops like rice and tomatoes decreased. In the second scenario, the area for water-saving crops like rapeseed and barley declined. The third scenario saw a reduction in wheat cultivation with the highest water consumption reduction of 1.2%. Farmers' income increased in the first two scenarios but dropped significantly in the third. Chemical fertilizer use rose in the first two scenarios, with no decrease in nitrate fertilizer use in the third. Conclusion: Raising crop prices can alter cropping patterns, impacting water use and farmers' income. Removing chemical fertilizer subsidies may reduce water use but negatively affect farmers' income. This study helps policymakers understand the economic and environmental impacts of agricultural policies.

منابع و مأخذ:

[1] Aayog N. Development Monitoring and Evaluation Office. Evaluation Report on Efficacy of Minimum Support Prices (MSP) on Farmers. New Delhi: Government of India; 2016, pp: 1-99. [http://164.100.94.191/niti/writereaddata/files/writereaddata/files/document_publication/MSP-report.pdf]
[2] Afghah SM, Faqihian F, Abdolizadeh L, Zolfaqari M. Investigating the effects of the government's support and commercial policies in the agricultural sector using the policy analysis matrix (case study: major crops of Fars province). Iranian Journal of Trade Studies. 2014; 18(69): 23-58. (In Farsi) [https://sid.ir/paper/7187/fa]
[3] Azizi J. Investigating the impacts of liberalizing the prices of chemical fertilizers and pesticides on rice production in Gilan province. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development. 2005; 13(50): 95-123. (In Farsi) [https://sid.ir/paper/24308/fa]

[4] Bakhshi M, Paykani GR, Hosseini SS, Saleh I. Investigating the effects of removing subsidies on chemical fertilizers and applying direct payment policies on the pattern of production and consumption of inputs (case study: Sabzevar crop sub-sector). Agricultural Economics. 2010; 4(2): 185-207. (In Farsi) [https://sid.ir/paper/124385/fa]
[5] ByBordi M. Optimum production and consumption of chemical fertilizers in line with the goals of sustainable agriculture. Karaj: Agricultural Research, Education and Promotion Organization, Vice-Chancellor of Training and Manpower Equipping, Publishing of Agricultural Education; 2000. [http://fipak.areeo.ac.ir/faces/search/bibliographic/biblioFullView.jspx?_afPfm=-g72fa4tur]
[6] Farmyards V, Hosseini S, Salami H, Yazdani S. Analysis of regional effects of wheat market liberalization in Iran. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development. 2018; 26(3): 145-170. (In Farsi) [https://doi.org/10.30490/aead.2018.81011]
[7] Howitt RE. Positive mathematical programming. American Journal of Agricultural Economics. 1995; 77(2): 329-342. [https://doi.org/10.2307/1243543]
[8] Khalaji H, Dashti H, Qahraman Zade M. The effect of guaranteed purchase policy on the area under wheat cultivation in East Azarbaijan province. The 12th National Specialized Conference on Agricultural Economics. Iran, Sanandaj, 2021. [https://civilica.com/doc/1798457]
[9] Lankoski J, Thiem A. Linkages between agricultural policies, productivity and environmental sustainability. Ecological Economics. 2020; 178: 106809. [https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106809]
[10] Mansouri H, Kohansal MR, Khadem Ghousi MF. Introducing a lexicographic goal programming for environmental conservation program in farm activities (A case study in Iran). China Agricultural Review. 2009; 1(4): 478-484. [https://doi.org/10.1108/17561370910989284]
[11] Ministry of Agriculture Jihad of Fars Province. Agricultural statistics report of Fars Province. 2021.
[12] Moteshare zade B, Malakoti M. Optimum production and consumption of chemical fertilizers in the country a valuable step towards self-sufficiency and achieving sustainable agriculture. Deputy of Training and Manpower Equipping of TAT Organization, Ministry of Agriculture-Jahad; 2001. [http://civilica.com/doc/1073962]
[13] Noori K. Study on rice price policy efficiency in Iran. Pajouhesh-va-Sazandegi. 2004; 16(61 in agronomy and horticulture): 74-81. (In Farsi) [https://sid.ir/paper/417520/fa]
[14] OECD. Agricultural policy monitoring and evaluation. OECD Publishing; 2020a. [https://doi.org/10.1787/928181a8-en]
[15] OECD. Producer and Consumer Support Estimates database. OECD; 2020b. [http://www.oecd.org/agriculture/agricultural-policies/producerandconsumersupportestimatesdatabase.htm]
[15] Paris Q, Howitt RE. An analysis of ill-posed production problems using maximum entropy. American Journal of Agricultural Economics. 1998; 80(1): 124-138. [https://doi.org/10.2307/3180275]
[16] Pishbahar E, Khodabakhshi S. Effects of elimination subsidies of agricultural inputs on crop cultivation pattern in Tehran province. Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development Research. 2015; 46(3): 551-558. (In Farsi) [https://sid.ir/paper/146305/fa]
[17] Rahmani F, Ahmadian M, Yazdani S. Studying the effects of agricultural input subsidy elimination on selected agricultural production in Iran. Agricultural Economics: Iranian Journal of Agricultural Economics. 2011; 5(3): 55-74. (In Farsi) [https://sid.ir/paper/124614/fa]

[18] Shabanzadeh M, Peykani G, Hosseini SS, Yazdani S. Change from the purchasing price policy to the guaranteed price policy and its effects on cropping pattern in Qazvin plain. Journal of Agricultural Economics Research. 2019; 11(1[41]): 101-129. (In Farsi) [https://sid.ir/paper/158791/fa]
[19] Shahzad MA, Razzaq A, Qing P. On the wheat price support policy in Pakistan. Journal of Economic Impact. 2019; 1(3): 80-86. [https://doi.org/10.52223/jei0103192]
[20] Shirmahi S, Peykanei G, Mortazavi SA, Zamani O. Evaluating the effect of removing of chemical fertilizers subsidy on the cropping pattern in Rey country. Journal of Agricultural Economics Research. 2014; 6(1[21]): 155-176. (In Farsi) [https://sid.ir/paper/158587/fa]
[21] Shokatfadaee M, Khalili M. Agricultural policy. Tehran: Payamnor University; 2010. [https://taaghche.com/book/70913/Agricultural policy]
[22] Ta'ali Moghaddam A, Shahnoushi Froshani N, Mosavi S, Dourandish A. The impacts of wheat’s guaranteed price on its production in Iran. Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development. 2015; 23(2): 113-142. (In Farsi) [https://doi.org/10.30490/aead.2015.58995]