تاثیر جنگ دوم قره باغ بر محیط پیرامونی امنیتی ایران
محورهای موضوعی : روابط خارجی ایران
معصومه فلاحتی
1
,
رحمت حاجی مینه
2
,
افشین زرگر
3
,
آرمین امینی
4
1 - PhD student of International Relations,Faculty of Law and Political sciences,Karaj Branch, Islamic Azad University,Karaj,Iran.
2 - عضو هیات علمی دانشگاه آزاد واحد شرق تهران
3 - عضو هیئت علمی دانشگاه آزاد واحد کرج
4 - دانشگا ه آزاد
کلید واژه: بحران, رقابت های منطقه ای, محیط امنیتی, ژئوپولتیک, قفقاز جنوبی, جمهوری اسلامی ایران.,
چکیده مقاله :
در سالهای اخیر ثبات در محیط امنیتی منطقه آسیای مرکزی و قفقاز، با چالشهای فزاینده ای روبرو بوده است.گرایش های ملی گرایانه،وجود بحرانها، چالشهای داخلی، ضعف در دولت ملت سازی و ورود بازیگران خارجی، محیط امنیتی آن را با پیچیدگی هایی روبرو کرده است. فروپاشی شوروی و تغییرات ژئوپولتیک صورت گرفته در منطقه قفقاز، عواملی هستند که باعث اهمیت و تاثیرگذاری بیشتر عوامل ژئوپولتیک این منطقه شده اند. با توجه به همسایگی و اشتراکات تاریخی و فرهنگی ایران با این منطقه و اثرگذاری تغییرات ژئوپولتیکی بحران اخیر بر امنیت ملی جمهوری اسلامی ایران پرسش اصلی این است که جنگ دوم قره باغ بر محیط پیرامونی امنیتی ایران چه تاثیری گذاشته است؟ فرضیه اصلی مقاله چنین است که حضور بازیگران منطقه ای و فرامنطقه ای و بعضاً دارای منافع متعارض در جنگ دوم قره باغ موجب تداوم بحران گشته و تاثیر این الگو مبتنی بر تداوم بحران، باعث امنیتی شدن و امنیتی ماندن محیط پیرامونی ایران در قفقاز جنوبی خواهد بود.این نوشتار براساس روش پژوهش کیفی و از نوع مطالعه موردی مبتنی بر چهارچوب نظری مدل بحران برچر انجام شده است و به این نتیجه رسیده ایم که بحران اخیر به دلیل تداوم، آثاری بر کشورهای منطقه به ویژه بر ایران، که منطقه قفقاز در محیط پیرامونی امنیتی آن قرار دارد، خواهد داشت و این وضعیت مانع از همبودگی اقتصادی و سیاسی در منطقه گشته و برای پیگیری منافع ایران در منطقه محذوریت ایجاد خواهد کرد.
The collapse of the Soviet Union and the geopolitical changes in the Caucasus region are the factors that have made the geopolitical factors of this region more important and influential.Considering Iran's neighborhood and historical and cultural commonalities with this region and the effect of geopolitical changes of the recent crisis on the national security of the Islamic Republic of Iran, the main question is, what effect has the second Karabakh war had on Iran's security environment?The main hypothesis of the article is that the presence of regional and extra-regional actors and sometimes with conflicting interests in the Second Karabakh War caused the continuation of the crisis and the effect of this model based on the continuation of the crisis will make Iran's peripheral environment in the South Caucasus more secure and remain secure. This article is based on the qualitative research method and a case study based on the theoretical framework of Brecher's crisis model and we have come to the conclusion that due to its continuation, the recent crisis will have effects on the countries of the region, especially on Iran, where the Caucasus region is located in its security periphery, and this situation has prevented economic and political integration in the region, and for follow-up Iran's interests will create restraint in the region.
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