آینده پژوهی برنامه ریزی توسعه شکوفایی شهری (مطالعه موردی: شهر فسا)
محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی و پژوهشی پژوهش و برنامه ریزی شهری
یوسف شفیعی
1
,
عیسی ابراهیم زاده
2
,
محسن احد نژاد روشتی
3
1 - دانشجوی دكتري جغرافیا و برنامهریزي شهری، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران.
2 - استاد جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان، زاهدان، ایران
3 - استاد گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، دانشگاه زنجان، زنجان، ایران
کلید واژه: آینده پژوهی, شکوفایی شهری, میک مک, فسا.,
چکیده مقاله :
یکی از مفاهیم جدیدی که چندسالی است، توسط سازمان ملل مطرح گردیده است، مفهوم شکوفایی شهری میباشد. هدف سازمان ملل از شکوفایی، دسترسی به ایمنی فراگیر و قابل دسترس، فضاهای سبز و عمومی بویژه برای زنان، کودکان، سالمندان و افراد ناتوان است. مطابق با این پارادایم جدید شهری، ایجاد و استقرار شهرهای شکوفا، راهحلی برای غلبه بر این مشکلات شهری است و ضرورت یافت تا کیفیت زندگی در شهرها را بهبود بخشد. تحقیق حاضر، با هدف آیندهپژوهی برنامهریزی توسعه شکوفایی شهری فسا تنظیم گردید. از نظر نوع توصیفی- تحلیلی و به لحاظ هدف، نظري- کاربردي است و با بهرهگیری از ادبیات نظری و روش پیمایشی انجام شده است. بدین صورتکه، پرسشنامه به روش نمونهگیری هدفمند در اختیار 18 نفر خبره قرار گرفت و برای تجزیه و تحلیل دادهها از نرمافزار میکمک (Micmac) استفاده شد. شاخصهای بررسی شده شامل بهرهوری، زیرساخت، کیفیت زندگی، برابری و مشارکت و پایداری محیط، بوده است. بر اساس یافتههای تحقیق، سطح اعتبار و پایایی متغیرها در ماتریس سیستم شکوفایی شهری فسا، در سطح بسیار مطلوبی است و در آن میزان پرشدگی به دست آمده برای متغیرها با دوبار تکرار چرخش دادهای (پایایی بالا)، 84% را نشان داد. نتایج مشخص نمود که 17 عامل، نقش کلیدی در شکوفایی شهر فسا دارند.
One of the new concepts that has been proposed by the United Nations for several years is the concept of urban prosperity. The goal of the United Nations is prosperity, access to inclusive and accessible safety, green and public spaces, especially for women, children, the elderly and the disabled. According to this new urban paradigm, the creation and establishment of flourishing cities is a solution to overcome these urban problems and it was necessary to improve the quality of life in cities. The current research was organized with the aim of future research planning the development of the urban prosperity of Fasa. It is descriptive-analytical in terms of type and theoretical-applicative in terms of its purpose, and it was done by using theoretical literature and survey method. In this way, the questionnaire was given to 18 experts by targeted sampling method and Micmac software was used for data analysis. The investigated indicators included productivity, infrastructure, quality of life, equality and participation, and environmental sustainability. Based on the findings of the research, the level of validity and reliability of the variables in the matrix of Fasa's urban prosperity system is at a very favorable level, and the degree of filling obtained for the variables with two repetitions of data rotation (high reliability) shows 84%. gave the results showed that 17 factors play a key role in the prosperity of Fasa city.
Extended Abstract
Introduction
One of the new concepts that has been proposed by the United Nations for several years is the concept of urban prosperity. The goal of the United Nations is to promote access to inclusive and accessible safety, green and public spaces, especially for women, children, the elderly and the disabled. In many cities, the level of social stability of citizens and urban areas depends on the indicators of urban prosperity prevailing in those areas. Since in the process of urban planning, paying attention to social issues is unavoidable and an integral part of urban plans, by determining the dimensions of social sustainability, it is possible to investigate and identify the procedures that affect the social issues of the society. did Considering the importance of urban life and in line with it, the emergence of metropolises as complex systems, foresight will play a significant role in the fate of these cities and metropolises. In recent years, the city of Fasa has faced serious obstacles in terms of physical development (the existence of agricultural lands and gardens, barracks and military centers, canals and steep slopes have deprived Fasa of the possibility of continuous physical development). is facing Therefore, in order to provide suitable space for this increase in population and increase the welfare and quality of life of the people, the level of prosperity in the city should be evaluated. Field surveys indicate that with these developments in the process of urbanization and changes in the needs of citizens and the priorities of urban services, Fasa city managers have not been able to respond to the problems and needs of this city. These issues and problems have affected the stability in the city and degraded the quality of life of the citizens and have caused attention to a new approach called urban prosperity in this city. One of the most important requirements for the implementation of urban prosperity programs is the future research approach. Paying attention to the concept of future research and measuring it and recognizing its facilitating factors can increase the possibility of realizing or advancing the goals of urban plans and be an effective step in the direction of urban prosperity. In the current research, it was tried to identify the key factors and the main drivers involved in the urban prosperity of Fasa and to study the future of planning the development of the urban prosperity of Fasa.
Methodology
The present research will be prospective in terms of practical purpose, in terms of descriptive-analytical method, and in terms of time perspective. Data collection is by document and field method. Using library studies, including articles, internal and external research, and internet search, the background, theoretical foundations, and research indicators were identified, and field information was obtained through a questionnaire and the formation of a panel of experts. The results of this stage were categorized into five indicators of productivity, infrastructure, equality and participation, quality of life and environmental sustainability. The researcher's questionnaire made in the Micmac software, the degree of connection of the variables with the related field, was confirmed by 18 experts who were selected by purposeful sampling, and 17 variables were identified as key variables.
Results and discussion
Identifying the key and effective factors in the area of urban prosperity is the first step in planning this area; Because until these effective factors are not identified, it will not be possible to achieve sustainable development in the field of urban prosperity. Therefore, in this research, in order to identify the most important factors affecting the future development of Fasa city, by using the opinions of the group of experts, 59 primary indicators were identified as the primary indicators affecting the development of Fasa city. The identified and determined indicators were placed in Mic Mac software; Because the number of identified indicators is 59, the dimensions of the matrix are 59x59. The main results were presented based on the points in the MICMAC software in the questionnaire section. The filling rate of the first matrix is more than 84%. Which shows that the determined indicators have a high influence on each other and out of the total, 2957 evaluated relationships of the indicators, 524 relationships have a value of 0 (zero), which means that the indicators do not influence each other. Among these 467 links, the number is 1 (one), which indicates the weak influence of the indicators on each other, about 747 links have the number 2 (two), which indicates the relatively strong influence of the indicators on each other, and 718 links have the number 3 (three) is a sign of many relationships, a key indicator that has a lot of influence. About 1025 links have the number P (four), which indicates potential index links.
Conclusion
The findings show that the effects of urban prosperity can be examined in five indicators of productivity, infrastructure, equality and participation, quality of life and environmental sustainability. Now, the complexity, continuous changes, uncertainty and multidimensionality of the space indicate the fact that Fasa's urban management should follow the planning regarding this new concept in more distant horizons. In this regard, future research, as a very powerful tool in the field of urban management, has recently entered the urban field, especially the issue of urban prosperity, and as a tool that is able to draw long-term perspectives focused on environmental changes. It is a suitable lever in overcoming the obstacles and problems in order to create urban prosperity in Fasa and it can increase the horizon of the people involved and urban managers of Fasa. The findings indicate that 17 key factors are effective in urban prosperity in Fasa. Currently, the city of Fasa is facing problems such as inadequacy of urban services, occurrence of social anomalies, urban traffic, social inequality, inefficiency of urban management, etc. On the other hand, the lack of a specific management procedure and the lack of a regular and coherent plan and the lack of proper foresight to solve these problems have caused positive steps to be taken in order to improve these problems and, as a result, the prosperity of the city of Fasa. The future research approach, as a new approach, provides the necessary conditions and infrastructure to design a comprehensive and coherent plan that includes all the necessary conditions for the creation and development of the prosperity of this city, through the creation of communication, coordination and consensus among managers. And the officials of this city provide it.
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