عوامل مؤثر در بروز بحران امنیتی در شهرهای ایران (کاربست نظریه محرومیت نسبی در تحلیل اعتراضات آبان 1398)

محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی و پژوهشی پژوهش و برنامه ریزی شهری

محمدرضا قائدی ¹ , حسین مذنب ² , محمدرضا امانی ³

1 - استادیار گروه علوم سیاسی، دانشکده حقوق و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، شیراز، ایران.
2 - دانشجوی دکتری گروه روابط بین‌الملل، واحد بین الملل کیش، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، جزیره کیش، ایران.
3 - کارشناس ارشد علوم سیاسی دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران.

تاریخ دریافت : 1400/06/23 تاریخ پذیرش : 1400/07/17 تاریخ انتشار : 1400/09/01

کلید واژه: محرومیت نسبی, بحران امنیتی, اعتراض, شورش, آبان‌ 1398,

چکیده مقاله :

به‌ دنبال افزایش قیمت بنزین در آبان ماه 1398، اعتراض‌هایی در سطح شهرهای ایران رخ داد. این اعتراض‌ها که به‌صورت مسالمت‌آمیز آغاز و در انتها به شورش انجامید، به بحرانی امنیتی برای حاکمیت تبدیل شد که با دامنه، شدت و گستردگی بسیاری همراه بود. این در حالی بود که طی دو سال قبل از آن (دی‌ 1396 و مرداد 1397) اعتراض‌هایی با دامنۀ محدودتر انجام‌ شده بود. در این حادثه تعدادی از مردم، نیروهای نظامی و امنیتی کشته و مجروح شدند و به زیرساخت‌های کشور علی‌الخصوص در سطح جامعۀ شهری آسیب‌ها و خسارت‌های درخور توجهی وارد شد؛ بنابراین به‌منظور جلوگیری از وقوع مجدد چنین مسئله‌ای، این پژوهش به‌دنبال یافتن پاسخ این سؤال است: چه عواملی منجر به بروز این بحران امنیتی در شهرهای ایران شده است؟ برای یافتن پاسخ با روش توصیفی ـ تحلیلی و با گردآوری اسناد و فیش‌برداری مرتبط، نظریۀ مرتبط بررسی شد و باتوجه ‌به آن وقایع مرتبط از سال 139۶ تا 139۸ تحلیل گردید. در پاسخ، فرضیۀ طرح‌شده با کاربست نظریۀ محرومیت نسبی این است که کاهش توانایی‌های مردم منجر به بروز اعتراض، شورش و در نهایت تبدیل به یک بحران امنیتی می‌شود. نتیجه آنکه مردم طی دو سال زندگی خود در سال‌های 139۶ تا 139۸ در وضعیت تحریم‌های بین‌المللی، کاهش رشد اقتصادی، افزایش نرخ خوراکی‌ها، افزایش نرخ دلار، سکه و کاهش درآمد سرانه، کاهش توانایی‌هایشان آشکار شد و با آغاز ناگهانی افزایش قیمت بنزین این حس ایجاد شد که فاصلۀ میان انتظارات و توانایی‌ها بسیار زیاد شده است. احساس محرومیت نسبی ایجادشده در مردم، منجر به اعتراض‌هایی شد که در نهایت به شورش و بحران امنیتی تبدیل گشت.

چکیده انگلیسی:

Following the increase in gasoline prices in November 2019, protests took place in Iranian cities. The protests, which began peacefully and eventually led to riots, turned into a security crisis for the regime that was widespread, intense, and widespread. This was despite the fact that during the two years before that (December 2017 and August 2018), protests with a more limited scope had taken place. Since a number of people, military and security forces were killed and wounded in this incident and significant damage was done to the country's infrastructure, especially in the urban community, in order to prevent such a recurrence, this study seeks to find the answer to this question. What are the factors that led to this security crisis in Iranian cities? To find the answer by descriptive-analytical method and by collecting related documents and filing, the relevant theory was examined and according to it, the related events from 2017-2018 were examined. In response, the hypothesis put forward by applying the theory of relative deprivation was that a decline in people's abilities would lead to protests, riots, and ultimately to a security crisis. The result is that during the two years of their lives in the years 2017-2019 in the conditions of international sanctions, slowing economic growth, rising food prices, rising dollar, coins and declining per capita income, their abilities became apparent and with the sudden onset of gasoline prices this feeling was created. The gap between expectations and capabilities widened, and the sense of relative deprivation created in the people led to protests that eventually turned into riots and security crises.

منابع و مأخذ:

1. Abdi, Abbas (2019). The power gap has led to an inability to make decisions. Iran newspaper. No. 7216


2. Akhavan, Bahar and Bina, Ahmad (2020). Dual approach to the Iranian and French protests. Tehran: Institute for the Protection of Women's Rights


3. Ardestani, Ali and Tajik, Ehsan (2014). Social riots and the issue of relative deprivation (Case study: June 6 uprising in Varamin). Quarterly Journal of Politics (Tarbiat Modares University). First year. Number three. Fall 2014


4. Ariapoor, Mohsen (2005). Urban Unrest and Crisis: Perspectives and Opinions. Quarterly Journal of Strategic Defense Studies. Issue 22. Summer 2005.


5. Ayatollah Khamenei (2019) Office for the Preservation of Publications and Works of Grand Ayatollah Khamenei (December2019).Statements in the meeting of the people of Qom. 2020-01-08 farsi.khamenei.ir


6. Azizi, Majid et al. (2012). Possibility of dissatisfaction due to relative deprivation in the subsidy targeting plan. Strategic Management Quarterly. The first year of the second issue. Summer of 2012.


7. Barat Alipour, Mehdi and Amani, Mohammad Reza (2018). Identity Interactions in New Social Movements (Case Study: Protest Movements in Iran and England). Quarterly Journal of the Macro and Strategic Policies, 5(Vol 5. No 20), 1-20.


8. Bayat, Asef (2018). The Fire That Fueled the Iran Protests. January 27, 2018. theatlantic.com


9. Darabi, Ali (2019). 20 points about the events of November 98. December 30, 2019.alef.ir


10. Darzi Kalaei, Mohammad Reza (2011). Revolutionary movements in Bahrain and the theory of relative deprivation by Ted Robert Gurr. Middle East Studies Quarterly. Eighteenth year, third issue, autumn 2011.


11. Deputy of Economic Research (2020). A picture of the economic situation of the country; Challenges and solutions. Report of the Deputy of Economic Research of the Research Center of the Islamic Consultative Assembly.


12. Gharsban Roozbehani, Morteza (2018). A review of the events of 2017 and an analysis of the riots of January. Journal of the Preachers. No. 226. April and May 2018.


13. Ghasemi, Behzad and Bakhtiari, Mohammad (2018). Application and evaluation of the theory of relative deprivation in the Islamic Revolution of Iran. Quarterly Journal of Islamic Social Research. No. 118. Spring and winter of 2018.


14. Gheib parvar, gholam hossein (2019). Head Dar Ghaybparvar in Shiraz: The rioters of the November 2019 sedition were terrorists. Tasnim News Agency. tasnimnews.com


15. Goodwin, Jeff and Jasper, James (2015). Social movements (emergence, ups and downs), Translator: Saeed Madani Ghahfarkhi, Tehran: Bazetab Publications


16. Gurr, Ted Robert (2019). Political revolt, causes, consequences and alternatives. Translated by Saeed Sadeghi Jaqeh. Tehran: Research Institute for Strategic Studies.


17. Gurr, Ted Robert (2020). Why do humans rebel? Translated by Ali Morshedizad. Tehran: Research Institute for Strategic Studies. Sixth edition.


18. Haji Naseri, Saeed and Hosseini Maram, Farid (2014). Social movements (vital concepts in sociology) Volume I. (Jeff Godwin and James Jasper), Tehran: Mizan Publishing.


19. Hamzehpour, Ali (2011). Security Strategies of the Foreign Policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran. Tehran: Publishing Organization of the Institute of Islamic Culture and Thought.


20. Heidari mohamad taghi, mohammadi shahram. (2020): Analysis of Social pathos in Informal Settlement Areas (Case Study: Islamabad Neighborhood of Zanjan City). Journal Research and Urban Planning, Vol 11, No 40, PP 59- 76


21. Hoshyar Manesh, Maryam et al. (2015). Economic dissatisfaction and contemporary movements in the Middle East based on the theory of relative deprivation. Two Quarterly Journal of Political Sociology of the Islamic World. Third year, number 2, autumn and winter 2015.


22. Hosseini, Hossein (1996). Urban crises and the theory of relative deprivation. Quarterly Journal of Defense Policy. No. 15 and 16. Summer 1996.


23. Hosseini, Hossein and Muslimi, Siavash (2015). Virtual social networking strategies to control the security crisis. National Security Quarterly. Fourth year, No. 15. Spring 2015


24. Hosseinpour, Jafar and Karamzadeh, Ismail (2019). The research future of controlling subversive collective actions with an emphasis on urban unrest. Security Horizons Quarterly. Thirteenth year, number forty-six. Spring 2019.


25. Islamic Republic News Agency (2019). Symptoms of recent unrest: Fuel prices sparked. ID: 83561481 irna.ir


26. Ismaili, Mohammad Mehdi (2019). A sociological reading of the recent unrest. News ID: 419660 fararu.com


27. ISPA (2019). The most important findings of ISPA in 1998. Published on 2020-03-19 ispa.ir


28. Kazemiam .Gholamreza, Ehsan Barari, Fattah Sharif Zadeh, Vajhollah Ghorbanizadeh. (2021):Developing the appropriate good urban governance model for metropolises of Iran and the integrated analysis of current situation (Case study: Mashhad), Journal Research and Urban Planning, Vol 12, No 44, PP 55- 74


29. Kazemian, Hussein (2018). How socio-political crises occur based on chaos theory. Two scientific journals of security knowledge. Fifth year, ninth year, autumn and winter of 2018.


30. Lahsaeizadeh, Abdul Ali (2012). The role of relative deprivation in increasing urban violence in the study areas of Kermanshah. Quarterly Journal of Urban Sociological Studies. Issue 3. Summer 2012.


31. Lotfi, Sedigheh, Anamradnejad, Rahim Bardi, Sasanipour, Mohammad. (2014). Investigating the feeling of security in public spaces (Case study of Shiraz metropolis). Journal of Urban Research and Planning, 5 (19), 39-56.


32. Madani, Saeed (2020). Dead fire; A look at the November 1998 protests (internal report). Thanks to the Rahman Institute. Project manager Saeed Madani in collaboration with some researchers.


33. Mardom salari newspaper (2020). Azadi spring coin prices. 15 July 2016 Content Code: 132315 & the price of the dollar. 14 July 2016 Content Code: 132262


34. Marofi, sakineh, jafari shams abad mozhgan. (2018): Comparative study of the role of configuration and spatial arrangement of urban neighborhoods in the sense of security Residents (Case study: Jahanshahr and Mehrovila neighborhoods in Karaj), Journal Research and Urban Planning, Vol 9, No 34, PP 119- 132


35. Mesri Nejad, Farhad (2019). The main root of the November events was the ignorance of public opinion / We use all means of demanding. Fars News Agency farsnews.ir


36. Moeidfar, Saeed and Parvin, Sattar (2009). Meta-analysis of studies conducted in the field of social issues in Iran. Journal of Applied Sociology, winter. Issue 36.


37. Mohseni Tabrizi, Ali Reza and Darvish Mullah, Mohammad Hossein (2008). Assessing the feeling of relative deprivation and relative perceptual deprivation of youth (Tehran city study). Quarterly Journal of Sociological Studies, No. 34, Fall 2008.


38. Moin (Persian Culture) (2020). Definite Persian culture. Online. vajehyab.com/moein


39. Olumi, Farid and Jalali, Reza (2020). The effect of the feeling of relative deprivation on the tendency of some residents of the west of the country to ISIL. Quarterly Journal of Strategic Studies. Twenty-third year, No. 87, Spring 2020.


40. ParsiPour, Hassan, Zia Tawana, Mohammad Hassan. (2013). Postmodernism and the city with an emphasis on urban planning patterns and designs. Journal of Urban Research and Planning, 4 (No. 13), 57-76.


41. Poursaid, Farzad (2018 a). Street riots in December 1996; Event or process. From the book "Protests and Unrests in December 2017 (Analysis and Estimates)" by Ebrahim Hajiani. Tehran: Research Institute for Strategic Studies.


42. Poursaid, Farzad (2018 b). August Unrest: Continuation or change in the pattern of protests in December 1996. National Security Watch Magazine. No. 77. September 2016.


43. Rabiee, Ali (2007). Social crises in Iran today. Iranian Sociological Quarterly. Issue 31 fall 2007.


44. Rafiei Bahabadi, Mehdi (2018). Lost hope, the social context of the December protest rallies. From the book "Protests and Unrests in December 2017 (Analysis and Estimates)" by Ebrahim Hajiani. Tehran: Research Institute for Strategic Studies.


45. Rahmani Fazli, Abdolreza (2019). Iran newspaper.no:7215


46. Rajabi, Hadi. (2013). the Impact of the Islamic Council of Tehran on the Attitudes of Tehran Citizens towards Political Participation. Journal of Urban Research and Planning, 4 (No. 13), 97-112.


47. Sam Daliri, Kazem (2003). Measuring relative deprivation in Ted Robertger's theory. Quarterly Journal of Strategic Studies. The sixth year. Number four. Winter 2003


48. Sasanian, Saeed (2018). Al-Arabiya psychological operations on the Arabs of Khuzestan focusing on the feeling of relative deprivation of welfare. Security Horizons Quarterly. Issue 38, spring 2018.


49. Saveh Droudy, Mostafa and Panahi, Mohammad (2019). The role of social movements in the emergence of security crises in the next decade J.A. Iran. Quarterly Journal of Research Security. 18th year, number 67. Fall 2019.


50. Seifzadeh, Hossein and Golpayegani, Hassan (2009). Relative deprivation and turnover in the June 2, 1997 elections. Quarterly Journal of Politics. Volume 39, Number 3. Fall 2009.


51. Shams, Bijan (2019). The main root of the November events was the ignorance of public opinion / we use all means of demanding. Fars News Agency 2019-12-03 farsnews.ir


52. Shoja, Morteza (2011). Comparative approaches to security studies. Tehran: Andisheh Asr.


53. Statistics Center of Iran (2019). National Statistics & Report: Housing price and rent information in urban areas of the country in winter 2019


54. Statistics Center of Iran (2020). amar.org.ir


55. Torabi, Yousef and Goodarzi, Ayatollah (2001). An autopsy approach to relative deprivation in the emergence of rebellion and social unrest. Quarterly Journal of Law Enforcement Knowledge. Issue 11. Winter 2001.


56. Yousefi Ramandi, Rasool (2020). Designing a Strategic Model for Security Crisis Management Based on the Supreme Leader's Intellectual System (Modzaleh Al-Aali) Quarterly Journal of Crisis and Emergency Management. Twelfth year, new period, number 1, spring 2020.


57. Zarei, Saadullah (2019). Investigating the sedition of the recent riots and the wisdom of the arrival of the leadership. Journal of the Guardian of Islam. November and December 2019. Nos. 453 and 454


58. Zayyari Keramatollah, Yadollahnia Hajar, Yadollahnia Hossein. (2020): Urban Management Performance Analysis with Emphasis on Good Urban Governance Indicators from the Citizen's Perspective (Case Study: Sari City). Journal Research and Urban Planning, Vol 11, No 40, PP 1- 16