خوانش و اولویت‌بندی مولفه‌های تأثیرگذار بر تحقق‌پذیری شهر امن در پهنۀ مرکزی شهر تهران

محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی و پژوهشی پژوهش و برنامه ریزی شهری

حافظ مهدنژاد ¹ (استادیار گروه جغرافیا و برنامهریزی شهری، دانشگاه سیدجمال الدین اسدآبادی، اسدآباد، ایران)
وحید بارانی ² (استادیار گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه علوم انتظامی امین، تهران، ایران.)
فریاد پرهیز ³ (دکتری جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، رئیس اداره مطالعات شهرسازی و معماری شهرداری اصفهان، اصفهان، ایران.)

تاریخ دریافت : 1399/10/19 تاریخ پذیرش : 1401/02/03 تاریخ انتشار : 1402/05/01

کلید واژه: شهر تهران, احساس امنیت, شهر امن, شاخص‌های کالبدی, بافت های فرسوده,

چکیده مقاله :

بافت های فرسوده به خاطر ویژگی های اجتماعی، اقتصادی، فرهنگی و کالبدی-محیطی، به شدت مستعد وقوع جرم و بزهکاری هستند. بر همین مبنا، هدف پژوهش حاضر خوانش و اولویت­بندی مولفه­های تأثیرگذار بر تحقق پذیری شهر امن در بافت­های فرسوده شهری در پهنۀ مرکزی شهر تهران است. جامعۀ آماری شامل ساکنان بافت­های فرسودۀ مناطق 11 و 12 شهر تهران، است که حجم نمونه بر اساس فرمول کوکران، 400 نفر است. از روش­های تحلیل عاملی تائیدی، بارتلت، آزمون کالموگروف- اسمیرنف، ماتریس ضرایب همبستگی و تحلیل مسیر، برای تحلیل داده­ها استفاده گردید. از نرم‌افزار LISREL8.8 برای تحلیل داده­ها استفاده گردید. بر اساس نتایج آزمون­های کیسر/ مییر/ الکین (برابر 66/0)، کفایت تعداد نمونه تایید و بر مبنای آزمون معناداری بارتلت (001/0P< ؛ 105 =df ؛ 040/738 =X2) فرضیه‌ نبود همبستگی بین متغیرها رد شده است. بر اساس یافته­های پژوهش، توزیع کلیه روابط موجود در مؤلفه­ها و متغیرهای پژوهش نرمال است. میزان آمارۀ T برای متغیرهای پژوهش مشتمل بر احساس امنیت، نورپردازی، معابر، الگوی فعالیت­ها و کاربری­ها، کیفیت محله­های مسکونی، فرم فضا، هویت شهروندان، تراکم جمعیت، نظارت اجتماعی، اشتغال و مسکن به ترتیب برابر با 52/10، 29/8،  18/5، 62/9، 79/8، 88/9، 29/10، 11/7، 56/4، 61/9 و 69/8 است. با عنایت به مقدار آمارۀ T و سطح معناداری مناسب آنها(001/0)، این متغییرها بر تحقق­پذیری شهر امن در بافت­های فرسوده شهری در پهنۀ مرکزی شهر تهران تأثیر بارزی دارند.  بر اساس مدل تحلیل مسیر، مولفه احساس امنیت با ضریب 20/0 بیشترین تأثیر را داشته و پس از آن مولفه­های نورپردازی، معابر، الگوی فعالیت­ها و کاربری­ها، کیفیت محله­های مسکونی، فرم فضا، هویت شهروندان، تراکم جمعیت، نظارت اجتماعی و اشتغال با ضریب به ترتیب با ضریب 15/0،  14/0، 10/0،  09/0، 07/0،  06/0، 05/0، 03/0  و 04/0  در اولویت­های بعدی قرار دارند.

چکیده انگلیسی:

Worn tissues are highly prone to crime due to their social, economic, cultural and physical-environmental characteristics. Accordingly, the purpose of this study is Influential components prioritization on inhabitants security of urban worn textures in Central area of Tehran. The present study is applied in terms of purpose and descriptive-analytical in terms of method. The statistical population includes the worn tissues residents in the 11th and 12th districts of Tehran.The sample size is estimated at 400 based on the Cochran's formula. Various methods have been used for analysis for the safety assesment of residents such as confirmatory factor analysis, Bartlett, Kalmogorov-Smirnov test, correlation coefficient matrix and path analysis. LISREL8.8 software is used for data analysis. The results of Kiser / Meyer / Alkin (KMO) sampling adequacy tests are equal to 0.66. As a result, the adequacy of the number of samples is confirmed. Based on Bartlett significance test (P <0.001; df = 105; X2 = 040/740), is rejected the hypothesis of no correlation between variables
The research findings has indicate that based on the results of Kalmogorov-Smirnov test, the distribution of all relationships is normal in the components and variables of the research. The amount of T-statistics for research variables including feeling of security, lighting, passages, pattern of activities and uses, quality of residential areas, form of space, citizen identity, population density, social monitoring, employment and housing are equal to 10.52, 8/29 , 5/18, 9/62, 8/79, 9/88, 10/29, 7/11, 4/56, 9/61 and 8/69 respectively. These variables have a significant effect on the security of worn textures residents in the central area of Tehran, considering the value of T-statistics and their appropriate level of significance (0.001). According to the route analysis model, the component of feeling safe had the most effect with a coefficient of 0.20. Then, components have had the greatest impact such as Lighting(with a coefficient of 0.15), passages(0.14), pattern of activities and uses(0.10), quality of residential areas(0.09), form of space(0.07), identity of citizens(0.06), population density(0.05), social monitoring(0.03) and finally employment(0.04).

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