اثر تخصیص منطقه‌ای منابع آب در شاخص یک‌پارچه آب – اقتصاد – محیط‌زیست بر رشد اقتصادی پایدار در استان‌های ایران

محورهای موضوعی : Business Administration and Entrepreneurship

محمد هادی اکبرزاده ¹ , مسعود خداپناه ² , منصور زراء‌نژاد ³

1 - دانشجوی دکتری رشته اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران
2 - دانشیار رشته اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران
3 - استاد تمام رشته اقتصاد، گروه اقتصاد، دانشکده اقتصاد و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه شهید چمران اهواز، اهواز، ایران

تاریخ دریافت : 1400/06/26 تاریخ پذیرش : 1402/11/10 تاریخ انتشار : 1402/11/01

کلید واژه: رشد اقتصادی, استان های ایران, شاخص یک پارچه, آنتروپی فازی, روش گشتاورهای تعمیم یافته (GMM),

چکیده مقاله :

چکیده
مقدمه: هر چند همه صاحب­نظران اجماع کامل دارند که ورشکستگی آبی تبدیل به اساسی­ترین چالش پیش روی توسعه در ایران طی دهه­های آینده خواهد شد؛ هنوز یک سیستم یک­پارچه آب – اقتصاد – محیط­زیست برای تخصیص پایدار منابع آب و سیاست­گذاری منطقه­ای برای حل مشکلات آبی در کشور وجود ندارد. هدف این پژوهش بررسی اثر تخصیص منطقه­ای منابع آب در شاخص یک­پارچه آب – اقتصاد – محیط­زیست بر رشد اقتصادی منطقه­ای در استان­های ایران بوده است.
روش­: پس از تعیین شاخص یک­پارچه آب مجازی بر اساس آخرین ادبیات نظری و تجربی، شاخص یک­پارچه آب– اقتصاد–محیط­زیست برای سیاست­گذاری منطقه­ای آب در 31 استان کشور با استفاده از روش ارزیابی جامع فازی و رویکرد آنتروپی برآورد شده است. در حدود 55 عنوان داده برای برآورد شاخص یک­پارچه آب منطقه­ای استفاده شده است که این داده­ها از سالنامه­های آماری ملی و استانی، مرکز آمار ایران، وزارت صنعت، معدن و تجارت، آمارنامه بخش کشاورزی و موسسه تحقیقات فنی کشاورزی جمع­آوری شده و مورد تجزیه و تحلیل قرار گرفته است. در نهایت، اثر تخصیص منطقه­ای منابع آب در شاخص یک­پارچه آب- اقتصاد- محیط­زیست بر رشد اقتصادی استان­های کشور با استفاده از روش گشتاورهای تعمیم­یافته (GMM) طی دوره زمانی 1397-1391 برآورد شده است.
یافته ­ها: در هر یک از استان­های کشور بسته به وضعیت قوت و ضعف آن استان در هر یک از ابعاد منابع آب، تکنولوژی و حمل و نقل، اقتصادی، اجتماعی و زیست­محیطی در شاخص آب- اقتصاد- محیط زیست، نیازمند اتخاذ رویکرد و سیاست­گذاری متناسب با شرایط خاص آن استان وجود دارد. افزون بر این، در نظر گرفتن سیستم­های یک­پارچه برای تخصیص منابع آب و به­کارگیری آن در قالب شاخص یک­پارچه آب- اقتصاد- محیط­زیست می­تواند اثری مثبت و معنادار بر رشد اقتصادی استان­های کشور داشته باشد. همچنین اثر مثبت و معنادار سرمایه انسانی، تشکیل سرمایه و امید به زندگی در رشد اقتصادی استان­های کشور تایید شد.
نتیجه­ گیری: نتایج مطالعه نشان داد که سیاست­گذاری در زمینه تخصیص منابع آب در ایران با هدف دستیابی به رشد اقتصادی باید به­صورت منطقه­ای و بر اساس یک شاخص یک­پارچه آبی- اقتصادی- زیست­محیطی صورت گیرد تا بتوان بر اساس ظرفیت­هایی آبی در هر استان سیاست­­گذاری­های آبی متناسب با وضعیت همان استان را انجام داد. افزون بر این، استان­های ضعیف در شاخص یک­پارچه منطقه­ای باید طی دوره بلندمدت فعالیت­های تولیدی بخش­های کشاورزی و صنایع دسته ­اول و دسته­ دوم از نظر آب­بری را تا حد امکان کاهش داده و کالاهای تولیدی آب­بر را از استان­های با وضعیت قوی از نظر شاخص یک­پارچه آبی- اقتصادی- زیست­محیطی منطقه­ای وارد کنند تا بتوانند فرآیند رشد اقتصادی خود را با وضعیت آبی- اقتصادی- اجتماعی و زیست­محیطی خود به شکلی پایدار سازگار کنند. 

چکیده انگلیسی:

Abstract
Introduction: Despite the consensus among all experts that water bankruptcy will be the main development challenge in Iran for the coming decades which can threat Iran's regional development and food security; there is still no integrated water-economy-environment index system for allocation of water resources in Iranian provinces. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to investigate the effects of regional water resource allocation in integrated water-economy- environment index on the economic growth of Iranian provinces.
Methods: After determining the integrated regional water-economy-environment index based on the recent theoretical and empirical literature, the integrated regional index was estimated for water resource allocations in 31 Iranian provinces using fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method and improved entropy approach. About 55 data titles were collected from various databases including Provincial and National Statistical Yearbooks, Statistical Centre of Iran, Ministry of Industry, Mine and Trade, Agricultural Statistical Yearbook, Agricultural Technical Research Institute. Finally, the effect of regional water resource allocations in water-economy-environment index on economic growth of Iranian provinces was estimated during the period from 2012 to 2018 using Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) approach.
Findings: Estimation of the total index with 5 main components revealed that Gilan, Mazandaran, Chaharmahaal & Bakhtiari and Khuzestan provinces can be suggested as the most suitable provinces to implement domestic virtual water strategy. The final results proved that policy making for implementation of virtual water strategy should be conducted regionally and individually based on the status of each province in water-economy-environment components of regional integrated index. Finally, the results of the study indicated that integrated regional water-economy-environment index had a positive and significant effect on economic growth of Iranian provinces. 

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