بررسی اثر تغییراقلیم بر تبخیر- تعرق و نیاز آبی گندم در منطقهی بجنورد
محورهای موضوعی : برگرفته از پایان نامهسمیرا یارمحمدی 1 , مهدی ذاکری نیا 2 , خلیل قربانی 3 , افشین سلطانی 4
1 - کارشناس ارشد آبیاری و زهکشی
2 - دانشیار گروه مهندسی آب، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان
3 - دانشیار گروه مهندسی آب، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان
4 - استاد گروه زراعت، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان
کلید واژه: گندم, تبخیر- تعرق, نیاز آبی, تغییراقلیم, شبیه ساز گردش عمومی,
چکیده مقاله :
به منظور شناخت بیشتر نسبت به تاثیرات پدیدهی تغییراقلیم جهانی، در تحقیق پیش رو اثر تغییرات اقلیمی بر تبخیر- تعرق و نیاز آبی گندمهای دیم و آبی در منطقهی بجنورد مورد بررسی قرار گرفته است. بدین منظور، فراسنجهای هواشناسی حداقل و حداکثر دما، بارش و تابش روزانه طی سالهای 1983 تا 2012 از ادارهی هواشناسی اخذ، و به عنوان داده های مشاهده ای به نرم افزار LARS-WG وارد شدند. فراسنجهای دما و بارش منطقهی بجنورد با استفاده از شبیه ساز گردش عمومی HadCM3 و تحت نمایشنامههای انتشار A1B، A2 و B1 برای سه دورهی زمانی 2040-2011، 2070-2041 و 2100-2071 تولید شده، و با استفاده از نرم افزار LARS-WG5 ریزمقیاس شدند. از شبیه ساز SSM-WHEAT، که دارای قابلیت تغییر در تاریخ کشت میباشد، برای شبیه سازی رشد گندم استفاده شد. نتایج تغییر اقلیم حاکی از آن بودند که به طور کلی، دمای منطقه تا سال 2100 در تمام ماههای سال روند افزایشی خواهدداشت. همچنین اندازهی بارندگی در دسامبر، ژانویه، فوریه و مارس افزایش، اما در آوریل، می، آگوست و سپتامبر کاهش می یابد. نتایج شبیه سازی با SSM-WHEAT نیز نشان دادند که به خاطر کاهش در طول فصل رشد گندم، اندازهی تبخیر- تعرق گندم بهطور کلی تا سال 2100کاهش مییابد، اما تبخیر-تعرق طی فصل رشد در تاریخ کشتهای دیرتر در دیمکاری کاهش و در کشت آبی افزایش مییابد. با کاهش اندازهی تبخیر-تعرق، نیاز خالص آبیاری نیز تا پایان قرن حاضر کاهش می یابد، اما در هر دورهی زمانی با جابه جایی تاریخ کشت به سمت اواخر پاییز، بر مقدار آن افزوده میشود.
There is a general consensus among climate scientists about the rise in global temperature due to an increase in the anthropogenic greenhouse gases in the earth's atmosphere. This will undoubtedly change the pattern of evapotranspiration (ET) due to an increase in CO2 concentration of the air with the resultant deerease in the stomata opening. Predication of the wheat plant ET was achieved by entering the minimum and maximum air temperature, precipitation and daily radiation for the 1983-2012 period into the downscaled LARS-WG software and its incorporation into the HadCM3 general circulation model under the A1B, A2 and B1 climate change scenarios for the 2011-2040 , 2041-2070, and 2071-2100 periods. Results of the general circulation model for Bojnourd area indicates that the temperature will increase in all months of the year up to 2100 year. There will also be an increase in precipitation, in December, January, February and March, and its decreases in April, May, August and September. The generated temperature and precipitation date were fed into the SSM-WHEAT as an application for making changing planting date for simulation of wheat growth. Results indicated that the change in the mean maximum and minimum temperature and also that of precipitation reduced rate-fed wheat's ET up to the year 2100. On the contrary, the ET of the late-planted irrigation wheat will be increased and it would be decreased in rainfed farming.
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