برآورد تابع تقاضای نهاده‌ آب در تولید محصول برنج در شهرستان گرگان: کاربرد رگرسیون های به ظاهر نامرتبط (SUR)

محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی

ثریا انصاری روشنده ¹ (دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان.)
علی کرامت زاده ² (عضو هئیت علمی گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان.)
اعظم رضایی ³ (عضو هئیت علمی گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی گرگان.)
خلیل قربانی ⁴ (عضو هئیت علمی گروه مهندسی آب، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی.)

تاریخ دریافت : 1398/10/11 تاریخ پذیرش : 1401/06/10 تاریخ انتشار : 1401/05/01

کلید واژه: تابع هزینه ترانسلوگ, تابع تولید لئونتیف, کشش جزئی آلن, کشش قیمتی خودی و متقاطع,

چکیده مقاله :

مقدمه و هدف: با توجه به تغییر الگوی کشت شهرستان گرگان به سمت محصول برنج به عنوان یک محصول آب بر از یک طرف و افت سطح سفره آب زیرزمینی از طرف دیگر، اهمیت مطالعه مدیریت منابع آب و شناخت عوامل موثر بر تقاضای آب را بیش از پیش نمایان می‌کند.
مواد و روش­ها: یافته­ها:در این مطالعه به برآورد تابع تقاضای آب در تولید محصول برنج، با استفاده از روش‌های سیستمی و رگرسیون­های به ظاهر نامرتبط (SUR) پرداخته شد. داده‌های مربوط به این پژوهش در سال 97-1396 از راه تکمیل 314 پرسش‌نامه به روش نمونه‌گیری طبقه‌ای تصادفی از شالی‌کاران شهرستان گرگان بدست آمد.
بحث و نتیجه­گیری: تقاضای آب کشش پذیر نیست، یعنی با افزایش قیمت آب تقاضای آب کاهش قابل توجهی نخواهد داشت.  بنابراین پیشنهاد می‌شود در کنار ابزار قیمت آب از سیاست‌های تکمیلی نظیر افزایش راندمان و استفاده از روش‌های مدرن آبیاری نیز استفاده شود.

چکیده انگلیسی:

Introduction: Given the changing cropping pattern of Gorgan County in favor of rice as more irrigated product on one hand and groundwater level decline on the other hand, it is more important to study and identify the factors affecting rice water demand.
Materials and Methods: In this study, the estimation of water demand function in rice production was investigated using system estimation methods and seemingly unrelated regressions (SUR). The required data were collected through filling out 314 questionnaires by farmers. Sample farmers were selected by stratified random sampling method in Gorgan in 2017-18.
Findings: The results showed that most of the coefficients were significant at the 5% level and Allen's partial elasticity had the expected sign.  This indicates that there is a reverse relationship between price and quantity of water demanded. The self-price elasticity of water demand indicates that for a 1 percent increase in water price, water demand decreases by 0.19 percent.
Conclusion: The demand for water is inelastic, That is, with the increase in water prices, water demand will not decrease significantly. Accordingly, it is recommended to use complementary policies such as increasing efficiency and using modern irrigation methods along with water pricing policy.

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