بازنگری رابطهی میان شدت انرژی و ارزش افزوده در بخش کشاورزی ایران؛ شواهدی جدید بر پایه رهیافت خودرگرسیون برداری پانلی
محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزیمعین نقشبندی 1 , یوسف محنت فر 2 , سعید راسخی 3
1 - فارغ التحصیل کارشناسی ارشد، اقتصاد انرژی،دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه مازندران
2 - استادیار، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه مازندران
3 - استاد، دانشکده علوم اقتصادی و اداری، دانشگاه مازندران
کلید واژه: شدت مصرف انرژی, رهیافت خودرگرسیون برداری پانلی, ارزشافزودهی بخش کشاورزی,
چکیده مقاله :
مقدمه و هدف: از کشاورزی به عنوان یکی از بخشهای مهم در رشد و توسعه یاد میشود. از اینرو، بررسی رابطه میان ارزش افزودهی بخش کشاورزی و تعیینکنندههای آن مورد توجه محققین و سیاستگذارن اقتصادی بوده است. در این میان، ارتباط متقابل میان شدت مصرف انرژی در بخش کشاورزی و ارزشافزودهی آن یکی از موارد مناقشهآمیز است. مواد و روشها: پژوهش حاضر با به کارگیری رهیافت خودرگرسیون برداری پانل رابطهی علّی میان متغیرهای مذکور را در استانهای ایران طی سالهای 1394 – 1384 مورد بازبینی قرار دادهاست. یافتهها: نتایج نشان میدهد یک رابطهی دو طرفه میان شدت مصرف انرژی و ارزش افزوده در بخش کشاورزی برقرار است. تحلیل توابع واکنش آنی نشاندهنده پاسخ مثبت شدت مصرف انرژی به تکانهی ارزش افزوده است، اما ارزش افزودهی بخشکشاورزی در رویارویی با تکانهی شدت مصرف انرژی واکنش منفی نشان میدهد. با استفاده از تجزیهی واریانس مشخص شد مقدار اندکی از تغییرات ارزش افزودهی بخش کشاورزی توسط شدت مصرف انرژی توضیح داده میشود. در عین حال، ارزش افزوده سهم نسبی بیشتری در تغییرات شدت مصرف انرژی دارد. بحث و نتیجهگیری: پیشنهاد میشود که جهت استفادهی بهتر از انرژی در بخش کشاورزی، بهجای سیاستهای مبتنی بر کاهش کمی در مصرف انرژی، در زمینه افزایش کارایی و بهرهوری انرژی سرمایهگذاریهای لازم صورت گیرد.
Introduction: Agriculture is considered as one of the important sectors in the process of growth and development. Hence, the study of the relationship between the value added of the agricultural sector and its determinants has been of interest to researchers and economic policy makers.
Materials and Methods: In this regard, the present study, using the Panel Vector Auto regression approach, reviewed the causal relationship between these variables in the Iranian provinces during the years 2005 -2015.
Findings: The analysis of the instantaneous response functions indicates a positive response of the energy consumption intensity to the value added shock, but the added value of the agricultural sector is negative in response to the energy consumption intensity impulse. Using variance analysis, a small amount of agricultural sector value added changes are explained by energy intensity. At the same time, value added has a greater relative contribution to energy intensity changes.
Conclusion: Therefore, it is recommended that investments be made to increase energy efficiency and productivity in order to make better use of energy in agriculture rather than policies based on quantitative reduction in energy consumption.
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