اثرات الگوی کشت بهینه بر وضعیت هیدرولوژیکی و اقتصادی حوضه آبریز زاینده‌رود: کاربرد مدل هیدرولوژیکی-اقتصادی
محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی
حدیث کاوند
1
(دانشگاه زابل، دانشکده کشاورزی، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی)
سامان ضیائی
2
(عضو هیات علمی گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه زابل)
مصطفی مردانی نجف آبادی
3
(استادیار گروه مهندسی ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی رامین خوزستان)
کلید واژه: الگوی کشت, شبیه‌سازی هیدرولوژیکی, بازده برنامه‌ای, فناوری‌های نوین,
چکیده مقاله :
مقدمه و هدف: منابع آب در حوضه‌ی آبریز رودخانه زاینده‌رود به دلیل خشکسالی و اثرات تغییر اقلیم در دهه‌های اخیر به شدت کاهش یافته و معیشت کشاورزان در سطح حوضه را با چالش همراه ساخته است. از این‌رو ارائه یک الگوی کشت هدفمند در جهت افزایش رفاه کشاورزان با توجه به پارامترهای هیدرولوژیکی سطح حوضه می‌تواند نقش موثری در بهبود اوضاع هیدرولوژیکی و اقتصادی سطح حوضه ایفا نماید.
مواد و روشها: در این مطالعه مدل شبیه‌سازی هیدرولوژیکی (مدل WEAP) با مدل بهینه‌یابی اقتصادی با هدف بیشینه‌سازی بازده برنامه‌ای کشاورزان با یکدیگر تلفیق شده‌است. همچنین، جهت برآورد نیاز آبی و عملکرد محصولات تحت بررسی، از ماژول MABIA استفاده شد.
یافتهها: نتایج نشان داد که در با بکارگیری الگوی کشت بهینه اقتصادی نسبت به شرایط کنونی، بازده برنامه‌ای برای مناطق نجف‌آباد، مهیار شمالی، لنجانات، کوهپایه-سگزی، اصفهان-برخوار و بن-سامان به ترتیب 14، 5، 15، 18، 15 و 20 میلیون ریال در هکتار افزایش خواهد یافت. همچنین، با افزایش سهم بکارگیری فناوری‌های نوین آبیاری در الگوی بهینه نسبت به الگوی کنونی، پارامترهای هیدرولوژیکی سطح حوضه از جمله مقدار تقاضای تأمین نشده آب حدود 14 درصد کاهش و درصد قابلیت اطمینان تأمین تقاضای آب حدود 2 درصد بهبود خواهد یافت.
بحث و نتیجه‌گیری: نتایج این مطالعه نشان می‌دهد که می‌توان با بکارگیری یک الگوی کشت بهینه، تضاد دو هدف اقتصادی و هیدرولوژیکی را مرتفع و بهبود شرایط اقتصادی و هیدرولوژیکی سطح حوضه را ممکن ساخت.
Introduction: Water resources in the Zayandehrood River basin have decreased sharply in recent decades due to drought and the effects of climate change and have challenged the livelihood of farmers in the basin. Therefore, providing a purposeful cropping pattern to increase the welfare of farmers according to the hydrological parameters of the basin can play an effective role in improving the hydrological and economic situation of the basin.
Materials and Methods: In this study, the hydrological simulation model (WEAP model) is combined with the economic optimization model with the aim of maximizing the farmers' gross margins. Also, MABIA module was used to estimate the net water requarment and yield of the crops under study.
Findings: The results showed that by applying the optimal economic cultivation model compared to the current situation, the gross margin for Najafabad, Mahyar Shomali, Lenjanat, Kuhpayeh-Segzi, Isfahan-Borkhar and Ben-Saman regions are 14, 5, 15, 18, , 15 and 20 million rials per hectare will increase, respectively. Also, using the new irrigation technologies in the optimal model compared to the current model, the hydrological parameters of the basin, including the amount of unmet water demand will be reduced about 14% and the reliability of water demand will be improved about 2%.
Conclusion: The results of this study show that by using an optimal cultivation model, the conflict between the two economic and hydrological objectives can be resolved and it is possible to improve the economic and hydrological conditions of the basin.
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