شبیه سازی تغییرات پوشش کاربری اراضی کشاورزی با استفاده از سامانه های چندعامله مبتنی بر برنامه ریزی ریاضی (MP-MAS) در شهرستان بابلسر

محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی

کمال عطایی سلوط ¹ (دانشجوی دکتری)
احمدعلی کیخا ² (عضو هیئت علمی اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه زابل)
محمود احمدپور ³ (استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه زابل)
سامان ضیائی ⁴ (عضو هیات علمی گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه زابل)
فرهاد حسینعلی ⁵ (استادیار عمران دانشگاه تربیت دبیر شهید رجایی تهران)

تاریخ دریافت : 1396/06/09 تاریخ پذیرش : 1398/10/22 تاریخ انتشار : 1398/10/01

کلید واژه: برنامه‌ریزی ریاضی مثبت, بابلسر, الگوسازی مبتنی بر عامل, تغییر پوشش کاربری اراضی, نظام چندعامله مبتنی بر برنامه‌ریزی ریاضی (MP-MAS),

چکیده مقاله :

با توجه به نگرانی‌ها در مورد تغییرات زیست‌محیطی، تغییرات پوشش کاربری اراضی در دهه‌های اخیر مورد توجه جدی قرار گرفته است. یکی از رویکردهای مشهور در زمینه‌ی شبیه‌سازی، الگوسازی مبتنی بر عامل (ABM) است. ABM مجموعه‌ای از الگوهای محاسباتی برای شبیه‌سازی کنش و واکنش‌های عامل‌های خودمختار است. هدف از این تحقیق در سال 1395، شبیه‌سازی وضعیت تغییرات پوشش کاربری اراضی کشاورزی شهرستان بابلسر طی 30 سال آتی با استفاده از نظام چندعامله مبتنی بر برنامه‌ریزی ریاضی (MP-MAS) است. نتایج نشان داد که محصولات دیم منطقه از الگوی کشت منطقه حذف خواهد شد و توسعه‌ی کشت مکانیزه محصول شلتوک اتفاق خواهد افتاد. سطح زیر کشت محصولات باغی منطقه از 3195 هکتار فعلی به بیش از 5585 هکتار رشد خواهد کرد. نتایج، کمک شایانی به مدیرانِ دارای نگاه استراتژیک به آینده‌ی تغییرات پوشش کاربری اراضی کشاورزی، خواهد کرد چراکه بازخورد سیاست‌ها و تصمیم‌های اقتصادی خود را می-توانند
شبیه‌سازی نمایند.

چکیده انگلیسی:

According to debates and concerns about environmental changes, land use coverage changes have been taken seriously in recent decades. One of the most popular approaches to the simulation is Agent-Based Modelling (ABM). ABM is a set of computational models for simulating the actions and reactions of autonomous agents. The purpose of this research in 2016, is to simulate the status of agricultural land use cover changes in Babolsar over the next 30 years using the mathematical programming based-multi agent system (MP-MAS). The results showed that rain fed products would eliminate from the cultivation pattern of the region, and the development of mechanized Rice cultivation will occur. The area under cultivation of the horticultural products of the region will grow from 3,959 hectares to over 5585 hectares. The results will help managers with a strategic insight at the future of agricultural land use cover changes as they can simulate feedback on their policies and economic decisions.

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