اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر شرایط هیدرولوژیکی و اقتصادی کشاورزان دشت بوشکان

محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی -پژوهشی تحقیقات اقتصاد کشاورزی

حمیده دانشگر ¹ (دانشجوی دکتری گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران.)
مهرداد باقری ² (استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران.)
مصظفی مردانی نجف آبادی ³ (استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه علوم کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی خوزستان، ملاثانی، ایران.)
فاطمه علیجانی ⁴ (استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران.)
غلامرضا یاوری ⁵ (دانشیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران.)

تاریخ دریافت : 1398/04/29 تاریخ پذیرش : 1398/11/09 تاریخ انتشار : 1400/05/01

کلید واژه: استان بوشهر, الگوی کشت, برنامه‌ریزی ریاضی مثبت, مدل LARS-WG, مدل WEAP,

چکیده مقاله :

برای کاهش اثرات پدیده تغییر اقلیم و بحران کم آبی بر بخش‌های گوناگون اقتصادی بویژه بخش کشاورزی، مدیریت جامع منابع آب ضروری است. هدف این پژوهش، ارزیابی اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر وضعیت هیدرولوژیکی و الگوی کشت در محدوده دشت بوشکان از شهرستان دشتستان در استان بوشهر است. در این پژوهش برای بررسی وضعیت هیدرولوژیکی، عملکرد و نیاز آبی محصولات کشاورزی از مدل WEAP ماژول اقتصادی-زراعی آن MABIA استفاده شد. برای اعمال سناریوی تغییر اقلیم، از داده های هواشناسی شبیه سازی شده توسط مدلLARS_WG برای دوره زمانی2050-2019 در قالب دو سناریوی خوش‌بینانه و بدبینانه کمک گرفته شد. داده های مورد نیاز، از راه تکمیل و استخراج پرسشنامه مربوط به 100 بهره بردار در سال زراعی 97-96 گردآوری شد. سپس با استفاده از مدل برنامه ریزی ریاضی مثبت، اثرات تغییر اقلیم بر الگوی کشت برآورد شد. نتایج نشان ‌داد که با اعمال سناریوهای پژوهش، مقدار آب در دسترس در دوره 2050-2019 به صورت میانگین 14.4 تا 18.5 درصد کاهش می‌یابد. با اعمال این تغییرات در مدل برنامه‌ریزی ریاضی مثبت مشخص شد که در سناریوی خوش‌بینانه، سطح زیر کشت و سود ناخالص به ترتیب 25.5 و 42.45 درصد و در سناریوی بدبینانه، 38.63 و55.26 درصد کاهش می یابد.

چکیده انگلیسی:

Bushkan is one of the most important plains of Bushehr province which is considered as the agricultural pole of this province. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effects of climate change on the cropping patterns in different areas of Bushkan plain. Accordingly, in this study, the WEAP model and its agro-economic model, MABIA, have been used to study the hydrological status of the plain. Finally, using the positive mathematical programming (PMP), the effects of climate change on the cropping patterns in different areas of the Bushkan plain has been studied. The results show that by applying RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, the water availability of different regions of Bushkan Plain during the 2018-2050 period is reduced by an average of 6 and 12 percent. By applying these changes to the positive mathematical programming, it was found that the total area under the cultivation of six areas is greatly reduced. According to this fallow agricultural lands is suggested as an appropriate solution to prevent long-term damage to agricultural production in the region.

منابع و مأخذ:

Agarwal, S., Patil, J. P., Goyal, V. C., & Singh, A. (2018). Assessment of Water
    Supply–Demand Using Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) Model for Ur River
    Watershed, Madhya Pradesh, India. Journal of the Institution of Engineers (India):
    Series A, 1-12.

Arfini, F., Donati, M., & Paris, Q. (2003). A National PMP Model for Policy Evaluation
    in Agriculture Using Micro Data and Administrative Information. Paper Presented at
    the international conference Agricultural Policy Reform and The WTO: Where are
    we headin Capri, Italy.

Bagheri Harouni, M., & Marid, S. (2013). Comparison of WEAP and MIKE BASIN
models in water resources allocation (Case study: Talvar River). Journal of Soil and Water Conservation Research, 1, 151-168. (In Persian)

Deylami, A., Joolaie, R., Rezaee, A., & Keramatzadeh, A. (2019). Investigating the effects of climate change on yield, gross profit and cropping pattern of Gorgan city. Journal of Agricultural Economics, 13 (2): 137-160. (In Persian)

Darand, M. (2015). Assessing and recognizing climate change in Iran in recent decades. Watershed Management Association, Year 9, No. 30: 1-15. (In Persian)

Dong, W., Liu, Z., Liao, H., Tang, Q., & Li, X. E. (2015). New climate and socio-economic scenarios for assessing global human health challenges due to heat risk. Climatic Change, 130(4), 505-518.

Esteve, P., Varela-Ortega, C., Blanco-Gutiérrez, I., & Downing, T. E. (2015). A hydro-economic model for the assessment of climate change impacts and adaptation in irrigated agriculture. Ecological Economics, 120, 49-58.

Forni, L. G., Medellín-Azuara, J., Tansey, M., Young, C., Purkey, D., & Howitt, R. (2016). Integrating complex economic and hydrologic planning models: An application for drought under climate change analysis. Water Resources and Economics, 16, 15-27.

Ghobadi, A., Habibnejad Roshan, M., Rashidpour, M., & Abbasi, A. (2014). Evaluation of Quantitative and Qualitative Changes in Groundwater Using Geostatistics (Case Study: Bushkan Plain, Bushehr Province). Thesis for obtaining a master's degree in natural resources engineering (watershed management), Haraz Higher Education Institute. (In Persian)

Howitt, R. E. (1995). A calibration method for agricultural economic production models. Journal of agricultural economics, 46(2), 147-159.

Howitt, R. E. (2005). Agricultural and environmental policy models: calibration, estimation and optimization Davis: University of California. Davis.

Hosseini, S., Nazari, M. & Iraqi Nejad, Sh. (2013). Investigating the effect of climate change on the agricultural sector with emphasis on the role of implementing adaptation strategies in this sector. Iranian Agricultural Economics and Development Research, 44 (1): 1-16. (In Persian)

Jabloun, M., & Sahli, A. (2012). WEAP-MABIA tutorial: a collection of stand-alone chapters to aid in learning the WEAP-MABIA module. Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources, Hannover, Germany.

Kouhestani, Sh., Islamian, S., & Besalatpour, A. (2017). The Effect of Climate change on the Zayandeh-Rud River Basin’s temperature using a Bayesian machine learning Soft Computing Technique. Journal of Soil and Water Sciences, 21(1): 203-2016. (In Persian)

Koutroulis, A. G., Tsanis, I. K., Daliakopoulos, I. N., & Jacob, D. (2013). Impact of climate change on water resources status: A case study for Crete Island, Greece. Journal of hydrology, 479, 146-158.

Khosravi, M., Ismail Nejad, M. & Nazaripour, H. (2010). Climate change and its impact on water resources in the Middle East. Fourth International Congress of Geographers of the Islamic World. Zahedan. ( (In Persian)

Mansoori, A., Aminnejad, B., & Vahamdi, H. (2018). Investigation the effect of climate change on Inflow runoff into the Karun 4 dam based on IPCC's fourth and fifth report. Journal of Soil and Water Sciences, 22 (2):345-359. (In Persian)

Mahmoudi, A., & Parhizkari, A. (2016). Economic Analysis of the Climate Change Impacts on Products Yield,

Cropping Pattern and Farmer's Gross Margin (Case Study: Qazvin Plain). Journal of Economic Growth and

Development Research.1 (2): 25-40. (In Persian)

Mozafari, M., Parhizkari, A., Hosseini Khodadadi, M., & Parhizkari, R. (2015). Economic Analysis of the Effects of Climate Change Due to Greenhouse Gas Emissions on Agricultural Production and Available Water Resources (Case Study: Downstream Lands of Taleghan Dam). Journal of Agricultural Economics and Development. 29 (1): 68-85. (In Persian)

Mehta, V. K., Haden, V. R., Joyce, B. A., Purkey, D. R., & Jackson, L. E. (2013). Irrigation demand and supply, given projections of climate and land-use change, in Yolo County, California. Agricultural water management, 117, 70-82.

Ngo, L. A., Masih, I., Jiang, Y., & Douven, W. (2018). Impact of reservoir operation and climate change on the hydrological regime of the Sesan and Srepok Rivers in the Lower Mekong Basin. Climatic change, 149(1), 107-119.

Paris, Q., & Howitt R.E. (1998). An analysis of ill-posed production problems using Maximum Entropy. American Journal of Agricultural Economics. 80 (1): 124-138.

Roham, O., & Dabbert, S. (2003) Integrating Agri-Environmental Progroms into Regional production Models: an Extension of Positive Mathematical Progromming. American Journal of Agricultural Economics. 85(1):254-265.

Shahraki, J., Sardar Shahraki, A., & Hashemi Monfared, A. (2018). Economic impact assessment of water resources management scenarios in Pishin catchment. Agricultural Economics Research: 59- 84. (In Persian)

Sieber, J., Swartz, C., & Huber-Lee, A. H. (2005). Water evaluation and planning system (WEAP): User guide. Stockholm Environment Institute, Boston.

Yaghoubzadeh, M., Amirabadizadeh, M., Ramezani, Y., & Pourreza Beelandi, M. (2017). An uncertainty analysis of general circulation models for estimation of soil moisture affected by climate change. Iranian Journal of Soil and Water Research, 48 (5): 1109-1119. (In Persian)