ارائه مدل خط مشی گذاری تاب آوری شبکه های توزیع براساس مدیریت یکپارچه شهری

محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی برنامه ریزی منطقه ای

مجتبی پارسایی ¹ (دانشجوی دکتری، دانشکده مدیریت، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران)
علی رضائیان ² (استاد، دانشکده مدیریت، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی، تهران، ایران)
نادر هوشمندیار ³ (دانشیار، گروه مدیریت دولتی،، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران)

تاریخ دریافت : 1402/03/21 تاریخ پذیرش : 1403/04/25 تاریخ انتشار : 1403/03/01

کلید واژه: تاب آوری, مدیریت بحران, خط مشی گذاری, شبکه های توزیع برق,

چکیده مقاله :

امروزه، سیستم‌های زیرساختی نظیر شبکه‌های برق، نقشی بسیار مهم در زندگی بشر ایفا می‌کنند. به علت تغییرات اقلیمی سالیان اخیر، حوادث غیرمترقبه افزایش و شدت گرفته است. و این حوادث می‌توانند عملکرد زیرساخت‌های انرژی را تحت تاثیر قرار دهند. از مهم‌ترین پیامدهای وقوع این حوادث می‌توان به بروز خاموشی‌های گسترده و طولانی مدت برق اشاره کرد. امکان بروز این حوادث به علت گستردگی و پراکندگی شبکه‌های توزیع برق بسیار زیاد می‌باشد. بنابراین مفهوم تاب‌آوری شبکه بسیار مطرح است. تاب‌آوری سیستم، توانایی سیستم در به حداقل رساندن اثرات منفی رخدادهای مخرب است. بنابراین، تاب‌آوری بر مبنای انطباق‌پذیری، دوام و همچنین برگشت‌پذیری در زمان مواجه شدن با حوادث پیش‌بینی‌نشده استوار است. هدف اصلی این پژوهش خط مشی گذاری عمومی برای تاب آوری شبکه توزیع نیروی برق در مدیریت بحران سیل به روش کیفی تحلیل مضامین می‌باشد. در این پژوهش از ابزار مصاحبه نیمه سازمان یافته جهت گردآوری اطلاعات استفاده است.دراین مقاله با ارائه یک مدل مفهمی اثبات گردید که مضامین شوک محیطی، نظام اقتصادی، نظام فرهنگی و اجتماعی، نظام مدیریتی، مدیریت بحران و نظام فنی و زیرساخت ها بر خط مشی گذاری تاب آوری شبکه های توزیع برق موثر هستند. و سیاست گذاران با در نظر گرفتن آن ها می توانند به تاب آوری شبکه در مواقع بحران کمک نمایند.

چکیده انگلیسی:

Nowadays, infrastructure systems such as power grids play a very important role in human life. Due to climate changes in recent years, unexpected events have increased and intensified. And these incidents can affect the performance of energy infrastructure. One of the most important consequences of these incidents is widespread and long-term power outages. The possibility of these incidents is very high due to the spread and dispersion of electricity distribution networks. Therefore, the concept of network resilience is very important. System resilience is the system's ability to minimize the negative effects of destructive events. Therefore, resilience is based on adaptability, durability, and reversibility when faced with unforeseen events. The main goal of this research is to formulate a general policy for the resilience of the power distribution network in the management of the flood crisis using the qualitative method of theme analysis. In this research, a semi-structured interview tool is used to collect information. In this article, by presenting a conceptual model, it was proved that the themes of environmental shock, economic system, cultural and social system, management system, crisis management and technical system and infrastructures are on the line. Resilience policies of power distribution networks are effective. And by considering them, policy makers can help the resilience of the network in times of crisis. 
 
Extended Abstract
 
Introduction
The rapid development of cities and the growing urban population have introduced new challenges in energy supply and the management of power distribution networks. These networks, as critical components of urban infrastructure, are increasingly affected by climate change and natural disasters. Climate events like floods and storms can lead to power outages and significant financial losses, making it essential to enhance the resilience of these networks. Research indicates that utilizing modern technologies such as smart grids, predictive and warning systems, and the development of renewable energy sources can significantly improve the resilience of power distribution networks. Additionally, cooperation and coordination among various stakeholders, including power operators, urban managers, and researchers, are crucial for better management and increased network resilience against disasters. These efforts not only contribute to the sustainable supply of energy but also ensure improved quality of energy services and network security. Ultimately, developing the resilience of power distribution networks as a strategic goal in integrated urban management and creating sustainable cities that can withstand various challenges is an unavoidable necessity.
 
Methodology
As previously stated, the primary objective of this study is to establish public policy for enhancing the resilience of the power distribution network in flood crisis management through qualitative thematic analysis. This research is novel in that it employs thematic analysis, a method that allows researchers to delve into data, blending knowledge and art, without relying on a pre-existing theoretical framework. Instead, it can be used to develop such a framework. The initial data was gathered from interviews, placing this study within the category of field and library research. In this research, the selection of expert participants continued until data sufficiency and saturation were achieved, ensuring that subsequent samples would not provide additional or distinct information. Ultimately, the researcher reached theoretical saturation after conducting 15 interviews. Studies suggest that in a carefully conducted research, 15 to 25 samples are generally sufficient for interviews, considering available time and resources. In this study, to calculate test-retest reliability, three interviews were selected from the total conducted, and each code was coded twice by the researcher with a 25-day interval. The results showed that the total number of codes registered by the researcher was 124, with 65 total agreements between these codes. The inter-coder reliability for the interviews conducted in this study was 95%, using the specified formula. Given that this reliability exceeds 60%, the applicability of the coding was confirmed, and it can be asserted that the current interview analysis is reliable and appropriate.
 
Results and Discussion
This study focuses on public policy for enhancing the resilience of electricity distribution networks in flood crisis management using qualitative thematic analysis. The data were collected through interviews and analyzed accordingly. Initially, data were coded, and these codes were then organized into various themes for analysis. Ultimately, 21 organizing themes were identified as components of the resilience model for electricity distribution companies. These themes were categorized into six overarching themes: environmental shocks, management systems, cultural and social systems, crisis management, economic systems, and technical and infrastructure systems. Each overarching theme represents a dimension of the resilience model, guiding responses to the research questions. The findings indicate that these themes provide comprehensive answers to the sub-questions of the research and contribute to enhancing resilience in electricity distribution networks. The results offer a framework for improving crisis management, increasing efficiency, and reducing vulnerability. This model can serve as a valuable guide for electricity distribution companies in strengthening their resilience and managing natural crises effectively.
 
Conclusion
Ultimately, enhancing the resilience of electricity distribution networks through integrated urban management not only improves their performance but also plays a crucial role in sustainable development and urban resilience against various disruptions and events. Achieving this goal requires a combination of risk analysis, integrated urban management, new technologies, energy resource diversification, and public awareness. Research by Rezaii et al. (2023) highlights the role of modern technologies, such as smart grids and the Internet of Things, in strengthening urban electricity distribution resilience. Their findings indicate that these technologies significantly improve the network's ability to withstand variable conditions and events, leading to better energy distribution performance in cities. Additionally, resilience planning requires a paradigm shift in the attitudes of managers and stakeholders. This includes improving mental models of resilience and addressing both external events and internal changes. Effective resilience planning involves diverse strategies, including energy resource diversification, smart demand management, and the use of renewable energy sources. Accurate data collection and analysis help identify risks and vulnerabilities, leading to targeted resilience improvements.

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