بررسی رابطه بین جاذبه سکونتگاه‌ها و میزان مهاجر پذیری با تلفیق مدل جاذبه و رگرسیون- مطالعه موردی: شهرستان های استان اصفهان(95-1390)

محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی برنامه ریزی منطقه ای

سجاد ربیعی جرم افشاری ¹ (کارشناس ارشد برنامه ریزی منطقه ای، دانشگاه تهران، تهران، ایران.)

تاریخ دریافت : 1399/12/22 تاریخ پذیرش : 1400/08/09 تاریخ انتشار : 1402/05/01

کلید واژه: "جاذبه سکونتگاهی", "مدل جاذبه", "مهاجرپذیری", "رگرسیون", "استان اصفهان",

چکیده مقاله :

انسان به دلایل مختلف و به منظور ارتقای معیشت و بهبود زندگی دست به مهاجرت می زند. هر چند اندیشمندان در مورد علل مهاجرت اختلاف نظر دارند، اما به طور کلی می توان دلایل مهاجرت را در دو گروه اقتصادی و غیر اقتصادی تقسیم نمود. به عبارت دیگر می توان گفت که جاذبه های اقتصادی و غیر اقتصادی باعث مهاجرت می گردند. اگرچه در محافل آکادمیک، مهاجرت بین‌المللی توجه بیشتری را به خود جلب کرده است،اما باید این موضوع را در نظر گرفت که حجم مهاجرت‌های داخلی بسیار بیشتر از مهاجرت خارجی است. در ایران نیز پس از اصلاحات ارضی در دهه 1340 شمسی و گرایش برنامه‌ریزی مرکزی به صنعتی شدن کشور، با متزلزل شدن نظام تولیدی روستا و رونق اقتصاد نفتی در شهر، مهاجرت روستائیان به شهر آغاز شد و تا کنون غالب تحقیقات صورت گرفته بر مهاجرت روستا به شهر و مشکلات ایجاد شده در این فرایند متمرکز شده است و مهاجرت های بین شهری و بین شهرستانی را مورد مطالعه قرار نداده اند؛ لذا هدف از مطالعه حاضر بررسی رابطه بین جاذبه شهرستان‌ها و میزان مهاجر پذیری آنها در استان اصفهان بین سال های 95-1390 است. بدین منظور جاذبه اقتصادی و غیر اقتصادی شهرستان ها در سال های مذکور با استفاده از مدل جاذبه محاسبه گردید. سپس یک رابطه رگرسیونی بین لگاریتم میزان مهاجرت شهرستان ها به عنوان متغیر وابسته و میزان جاذبه اقتصادی و غیر اقتصادی شهرستان ها به عنوان متغیرهای مستقل ایجاد نمودیم. مدل در سطح خطای 5 درصد معنادار و ضریب تعیین مدل رگرسیونی 70/0 بوده که نشان از برازش مناسب مدل دارد. نتایج نشان می دهد که در استان اصفهان در سال های مذکور مهمترین دلیل مهاجرت های داخلی، انگیزه های غیر اقتصادی است.

چکیده انگلیسی:

People migrates for various reasons in order to improve Living conditions.Although scholars disagree about the causes of migration, but in general, the reasons for migration can be divided into two groups: economic and non-economic. In other words, it can be said that economic and non-economic attractions cause migration. Although international migration has attracted more attention in academia, it must be kept in mind that the volume of domestic migration is much larger than that of foreign migration. In Iran, after the land reform and the tendency of central planning to industrialize the country, with the shaking of the rural production system and the prosperity of the oil economy in the city, the migration of rural to the city began and so far most research are concentrated on rural migration to city and the problems created in this process and intercity migration have not been studied; Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the relationship between the attractiveness of cities and the rate of their immigration in Isfahan province between 2011-2016. For this purpose, the economic and non-economic attraction of the cities in the mentioned years was calculated using the gravity model. Then we created a regression relationship between the logarithm of the rate of migration of cities as a dependent variable and the amount of economic and non-economic attractiveness of cities as independent variables. The model was significant at error level of 5% and the coefficient of determination of model was 0.70, which indicates a good fit of the model. The results show that in Isfahan province in the mentioned years, the most important reason for internal migration is non-economic motivations.

منابع و مأخذ:

1. Abbasi Shavazi, M. J. (2017). Population Developments and Situation in the Islamic Republic of Iran. Institute of Comprehensive and Specialized Population Studies and Management, Tehran, Iran. [In Persian]


2. Akbarpour, M. (2017). Analysis of the Impact of Rural Migration Networks on Karaj Metropolis (Case Study: Koohsar County-Hashtrood County). Regional Planning Quarterly, 7(27), 117-132. [In Persian]


3. Cohen, J. E. , Roig, M. , Reuman, D. C. , & GoGwilt, C. (2008). International migration beyond gravity: A statistical model for use in population projections. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 105(40), 15269-15274.


4. Daryabari, S. J. (2007). Study of migration phenomenon and population return in war-torn areas of Khuzestan province. Population Quarterly, 61/62, 1-18. [In Persian]


5. (2004). DFID Rural and Urban Development Case Study – Nigeria. Oxford: Department for International Development. Oxford Policy Management.


6. Foot, D. K. , & Milne, W. J. (1984). Net migration estimation in an extended, multiregional gravity model. Journal of Regional Science, 24(1), 119-133.


7. Grigg, D. B. (1977). EG Ravenstein and the "laws of migration. " Journal of Historical Geography, 3(1), 41-54.


8. Hekmatnia, H. , & Mousavi, M. N. (2006). Application of the Model in Geography with Emphasis on Urban and Regional Planning. Yazd, Elm Novin Publications. [In Persian]


9. Hojjat, I. (2006). The Impact of Land Reform on the Form of Iranian Villages. Journal of Fine Arts, 1(26), 75-84. [In Persian]


10. Hosseini, G. , Moshfegh, M. , & Zare Mehrjerdi, R. (2016). Description and analysis of inter-provincial migration in Iran and its determinants during the period 1390-1385. Journal of Spatial Planning, 6(4), 19-44. [In Persian]


11. Hosseini, G. , Sadeghi, R. , Ghasemi Ardehai, A. , & Rostamalizadeh, V. (2018). Developments in the trend and patterns of internal migration in the provinces of Iran. Regional Planning Quarterly, 8(31), 1-18. [In Persian]


12. Jamshidi, M. K. , Mohammadi Yeganeh, B. , & Hosseinzadeh, A. (2015). An Analysis of Factors Affecting Development and Its Role in Rural Migration Case Study: Zanjan Province. Regional Planning Quarterly, 8(32), 11-22. [In Persian]


13. Karemera, D. , Oguledo, V. I. , & Davis, B. (2000). A gravity model analysis of international migration to North America. Applied Economics, 32(13), 1745-1755.


14. Khoshfar, G. , Rezaei Danesh, Y. , & Javadinia, A. (2013). Study of migration flows and factors affecting it in Mazandaran province. Socio-Cultural Development Studies, 1(4), 147-176. [In Persian]


15. Klugman, J. (2009). Human development report 2009. Overcoming barriers: Human mobility and development. UNDP-HDRO Human Development Reports.


16. Lee, E. S. (1966). A theory of migration. Demography, 3(1), 47-57.


17. Michalos, A. C. (1996). Migration and the quality of life: A review essay. Social Indicators Research, 39(2), 121-166.


18. Moch, L. P. (2017). Internal migration before and during the Industrial Revolution: the case of France and Germany. Notes, 2, 5.


19. Nouri, I. , & Bakhtiari, A. (2009). Application of QFD to identify the main features of the website using fuzzy Topsis. Quarterly Journal of Industrial Management, Islamic Azad University, Sanandaj Branch, 4(9), 75-88. [In Persian]


20. Panahi, L. , & Pishroo, H. (2011). A Study of Factors Affecting Rural Youth Migration to the City, Case Study: Villages in the Central Part of Marvdasht County. Regional Planning Quarterly, 1(2), 41-50. [In Persian]


21. Patnaik, B. C. M. , Satpathy, I. , Tripathy, S. , & Mandal, A. (2015). Labour migration and its effect on Urban India–an overview. International Journal of Physical and Social Sciences, 5(2), 178-185.


22. Please note that for the references without complete details (e. g. , page numbers), I've retained the information provided in your original list. If you have any more references or need further assistance, feel free to ask.


23. Rahimi, A. , Vaezi, M. , & Bakuei, M. (2018). A Study and Analysis of Migration Trends and Factors Affecting It in Harris County. Regional Planning Quarterly, 9(34), 107-116. [In Persian]


24. Ramos, R. , & Suriñach, J. (2017). A Gravity Model of Migration Between the ENC and the EU. Tijdschrift voor economische en sociale geografie, 108(1), 21-35.


25. Shamsodini, A. , & Georgians, P. (1389). Factors affecting the migration of villagers to cities, with emphasis on the migration network (Case: Rostam Do village). Human Settlement Planning Studies (Geographical Landscape), 5(11), 87-105. [In Persian]


26. Todaro, M. P. (2007). Internal Migration in Developing Countries: A Survey (pp. 361-402). University of Chicago Press.


27. United Nations. (2020). World Migration Report 2020. Geneva.


28. Waldman, D. M. (1983). A note on algebraic equivalence of White's test and a variation of the Godfrey/Breusch-Pagan test for heteroscedasticity. Economics Letters, 13(2-3), 197-200.


29. Zelinsky, W. (1971). The hypothesis of the mobility transition. Geographical Review, 219-249.


30. Ziari, K. (2009). Principles and Methods of Regional Planning (9th ed. ). University of Tehran Press. [In Persian]