آینده‌نگری توسعه منطقه ای و تحقق‌پذیری طرح‌های آمایش سرزمینی کشور (مطالعه موردی: استان خراسان رضوی)

محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی برنامه ریزی منطقه ای

مهدی جوانشیری ¹ (دانش‌‌آموخته دکتری جغرافیا و برنامه‌‌ریزی روستایی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران.)
سیروس نبیونی ² (دانش‌‌آموخته دکتری اقلیم‌شناسی واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.)
مسلم نامدارزاده ³ (دانشجو دکتری جغرافیای سیاسی، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران.)

تاریخ دریافت : 1399/05/12 تاریخ پذیرش : 1399/11/01 تاریخ انتشار : 1401/08/01

کلید واژه: خراسان رضوی, آمایش سرزمین, آینده نگاری, تحقق‌پذیری, سناریوویزارد,

چکیده مقاله :

تلاش برای داشتن یک برنامه ملی آمایش سرزمین در طول 45 سال گذشته همواره با موانع و چالش‌های متعددی مواجه شده است، اما آینده‌پژوهی در برنامه‌ریزی آمایش سرزمین با تأکید بر عوامل کلیدی، پیشران‌ها و فقدان قطعیت‌های توسعۀ مناطق، اجازه می دهد با تمرکز بر پیشران‌های کلیدی به حل مسائل مبهم فایق آمد؛ و به نگاشت و مدیریت آیندۀ مطلوب پرداخت. در پژوهش حاضر تلاش شده است تا با مشارکت مدیران استانی و خبرگان دانشگاهی، مهمترین عوامل تأثیرگذار بر تحقق‌پذیری آمایش استان خراسان رضوی شناسایی و درنهایت سناریوهای موثر بر تحقق‌پذیری آمایش استان تدوین شود. فرایند حاکم بر این پژوهش از نظر هدف، کاربردی و نوع روش پژوهش توصیفی- تحلیلی است. ماهیت داده ها کیفی بوده و روش گردآوری داده ها و اطلاعات به صورت کتابخانه ای، اسنادی و پیمایشی (مصاحبه) است. با بررسی منابع علمی، 107 عامل موثر بر تحقق‌پذیری طرح های امایش سرزمین شناسایی شد که در 10 بُعد دسته بندی شدند؛ که از دو گروه و در مجموع 29 نفر، شامل مدیران سازمانهای مرتبط با فرآیند آمایش سرزمین در استان و متخصصان دانشگاهی طی پرسشنامه حضوری و انلاین درخواست شد مقایسۀ زوجی میان عوامل تأثیرگذار صورت پذیرد. تجزیه و تحلیل داده ها مبتنی بر تکنیک های آینده‌پژوهی ازجمله پویش محیطی، تحلیل ساختاری و تحلیل تأثیر متقابل است. نتایج نشان داد تعداد خیلی زیاد سناریوی ممکن پیش روی برنامه‌ریزی آمایش سرزمین در استان خراسان رضوی وجود دارد که تعداد 598 سناریو با سازگاری ضعیف و تنها 2 سناریو در حالت سازگاری قوی و پایدار (ناسازگاری صفر) قرار دارد (33/3 درصد سناریوهای ممکن، باورپذیر هستند). سناریوی اول که یک سناریو با جهت مثبت است، دارای مجموع امتیاز اثر متقابل 228 و ارزش سازگاری 6 است، درحالی‌که سناریوی دوم که گویای شرایط نامطلوب برای آینده برنامه‌ریزی آمایش سرزمین در استان خراسان رضوی است، دارای مجموع امتیاز اثر متقابل 163 و ارزش سازگاری 9 می‌باشد.

چکیده انگلیسی:

Attempting to have a national land use planning program has always faced many obstacles and challenges over the past 45 years. But futures research in land use planning with emphasis on key factors, drivers, and lack of regional development certainties, allows focusing on key drivers to overcome ambiguous problems. And mapped and managed the desired future. In the present study, with the participation of provincial administrators and university experts, the most important factors affecting the feasibility of planning in Khorasan Razavi province have been identified and finally scenarios affecting the feasibility of planning in the province have been developed. The research is descriptive-analytical in terms of purpose, application and type of research method. The method of data collection and information is library, documentary and survey (interview). By examining scientific sources, 107 factors affecting the feasibility of land use planning projects were identified, which were classified into 10 dimensions; Interviews were conducted with two groups and a total of 29 people, including managers of related organizations and academic experts. Data analysis is based on futures research techniques such as environmental scanning, structural analysis and interaction analysis (Micmac and Scenario wizard software). The results showed that 598 scenarios with poor compatibility and only 2 scenarios are in the state of strong and stable compatibility (zero incompatibility) (33.3% of possible scenarios are plausible). The first scenario, which is a positive-oriented scenario, has a total interaction score of 228 and a compatibility value of 6, while the second scenario, which indicates unfavorable conditions for the future of land management planning in Khorasan Razavi province, has a total interaction score of 163 and a compatibility value of 9. is. The third scenario also has a compatibility value of -1 and with a total score of 58 interaction can be one of the possible scenarios for the future of land management planning in Khorasan Razavi province.

منابع و مأخذ:

1. Abuya, D., Oyugi, M., & Oyaro, E. (2019). Management of the Effects of Land Use Changes on Urban Infrastructure Capacity: A Case Study of Ruaka Town, Kiambu County, Kenya. American Journal of Geographic Information System, 8(4), 158-190.‏


2. Akbari, Y., Imani Jajarmi, H., and Rostamalizadeh, V.A. (2016): Analysis and study of Land use planning barriers in Iran, Science and Technology Policy, 6 (3): 13-5.


3. Alborz Planning and Development Consulting Engineers. (2013): Plan for preparing and compiling a planning plan for Tehran province. Tehran: Deputy of Planning (Tehran Governorate).


4. Ali Akbari, A., Poorahmad, A., and Jalalabadi, L. (2018): Identifying the drivers that affect the future of sustainable tourism in Kerman with a futures research approach, Journal of Tourism and Development, 7 (1): 156-178.


5. Alibigi, J., Jalalian, H., Azizpour, F., and Mehdizadeh, H. (2018): Identifying the key factors for the future - researching the effects of implementing the Sirvan River water transfer project (tropical system project) on spatial-spatial developments (Case study: Mehran city - Ilam province), Iranian Water Resources Research, 14 (3): 92-101.


6. Alizadeh, R., Lund, P. D., Beynaghi, A., Abolghasemi, M. & Maknoon, R. (2016). An integrated scenario-based robust planning approach for foresight and strategic management with application to energy industry. Technological Forecasting & Social Change, 104, 162-171


7. Amin Nayeri, B., Zali, N. & Motavaf, SH. (2017). Identifiation of regional development drivers by scenario Planning. Urabn Manage Energy Sustinability, 1(2), 90-103.


8. Amiri, H., and Nilipour Tabatabai, S. A. (2019): Identification of key drivers affecting the future of crude oil on the horizon of 1414 using cross-sectional analysis. Business Management Quarterly, 11 (43): 409-384.


9. Amuo, A., and Hatami Nejad, H. (2019): Pathology and evaluation of land management plans in Iran, Journal of Regional Planning, 9 (34): 27-38.


10. Annabestani, A. A., and Hosseini Kahnooj, S. F. (2019): Analysis of key drivers affecting the employment of agro-industrial activities in rural areas of Jiroft, Space Economics and Rural Development, 7 (26): 37-58.


11. Bazazzadeh, M., Dadashpour, H., and Matouf, Sh. (2014): Investigation and Analysis of Key Factors Affecting Regional Development with a Regional Futurism Approach, Case Study: West Azerbaijan Province, Iran. Journal of Spatial Planning (Geography), 4 (2): 79-104.


12. Beheshti, M. B., and Zali, N. (2011): Identifying the key factors of regional development with a scenario-based planning approach: A case study of East Azerbaijan province, Space Planning and Planning, 15 (1): 41-63.


13. Chen, Q., Chen, H., Wang, J., Zhao, Y., Chen, J., & Xu, C. (2019). Impacts of Climate Change and Land-Use Change on Hydrological Extremes in the Jinsha River Basin. Water, 11(7), 1398.‏


14. Choi, B. C., Pang, T., Lin, V., Puska, P., Sherman, G., Goddard, M., ... & Clottey, C. (2005). Can scientists and policy makers work together?. Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health, 59(8), 632-637.‏


15. Dehdehzadeh Silabi, P., and Ahmadifard, N. (2019): Determining the key drivers of tourism development with a future research approach (Case study: Cities of Mazandaran province), Journal of Geography and Environmental Sustainability, 9 (1): 73-89.


16. Ebrahimzadeh, A., Mousavi, S.N., and Bagheri Kashkoli, A. (2014): A look at the concepts and necessities of land management in the country. The first conference of Iranian geographical sciences, May 2014, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran.


17. Enayatullah, S. (2014): Questions of the future. Translated by Massoud Manzavi, Tehran: Defense Industries Educational-Research Institute Publications.


18. Faraji Mollai, A., Aliordilo, H., and Amini, H. (2015): Territorial defense planning from the perspective of passive defense. Journal of geography, 13 (45): 247-274.


19. Faraji, A., Alian, M., and Fathi, A. (2018): Futurism of the effects of drying areas of Lake Urmia with a political approach, Journal of Geography and Urban Planning - Regional, 8 (27): 37-54.


20. Faraji, A., Nematpour M., and Ashriya A. (2017): Systems analysis of the positive and negative effects of tourism development in Iran with a futures research approach, Journal of Social Tourism Studies, 5(9): 189-151.


21. Foundation of Development Tomorrow. (2005). Methods of Technology Foresight, Knowledge Light Technology Development Institute, Tehran.


22. Ghorbani, H., Hafezi Moghads, N., & Kashi, H. (2015). Effects of land use on the concentrations of some heavy metals in soils of Golestan Province, Iran. Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology, 17(4), 1025-1040.‏


23. Godet, M. & Durance, P. (2011). Strategic foresight for corporate and regional development. UNESCO Publishing.


24. Goodarzi, Gh. R., Azar, A., Azizi, F., and Babaei Meybodi, H. (2016): Proposing a proposed framework for regional futurism as an interdisciplinary field of study: Case study, Yazd province development planning document, Interdisciplinary Studies in the Humanities, 7 (2): 155-133.


25. Governor of Khorasan Razavi. (2019): The latest divisions of the country in Khorasan Razavi province, Office of Political Affairs, Elections and National Divisions.


26. Hashemi, S. M. (2016): Landscape planning with a future perspective, Conference on land management, the location of the Caspian Sea and the development perspective of Gilan.


27. Javanshiri, M. (2020): Futurism of physical-spatial developments of rural settlements in Mashhad urban complex. PhD Thesis in Geography and Rural Planning, Ferdowsi University, Mashhad, Iran.


28. Jiang, X., Wang, H., Guo, X., & Gong, X. (2019). Using the FAHP, ISM, and MICMAC Approaches to Study the Sustainability Influencing Factors of the Last Mile Delivery of Rural E-Commerce Logistics. Sustainability, 11(14), 3937.‏


29. Joorabian Shooshtari, S., Shayesteh, K., Gholamalifard, M., Azari, M., Serrano-Notivoli, R., & López-Moreno, J. I. (2017). Impacts of future land cover and climate change on the water balance in northern Iran. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 62(16), 2655-2673.‏


30. Karrholm, M. (2011). The Scaling of Sustainable urban form: a scal-related issuesand Sustainable planning Malmo. Sweden. European planning Studies 19(1), 97-112


31. King, A. (2016). Science, politics and policymaking. EMBO reports, 17(11), 1510-1512.‏


32. Latifi, M. M., Ghalambor, M. A. & Azimi, S. H. R. (2012). Foresight and evaluating Iran's automotive industry development applying a scenario planning approach, Canadian Social Science, 8(1), 170-185.


33. Malekzadeh, N., Bazazzadeh. M., and Rafiiyan. M. (2016): Identification and analysis of key factors affecting urban development with a futuristic approach (Case study: Karaj metropolis). Journal of Geography and Urban Development, 3 (2): 35-52.


34. Medina, E., Arce, R. d. & Mahia, R. (2015). Barriers to the investment in the Concentrated Solar Power sector in Morocco: A foresight approach using the Cross Impact Analysis for a large number of events. Futures, 71, 36-56.


35. Mirkatouli, J., Hosseini, A., & Neshat, A. (2015). Analysis of land use and land cover spatial pattern based on Markov chains modelling. City, Territory and Architecture, 2(1), 4.‏


36. Molaei, A. R., Sanayei, A., and Ansari, A. (2018): Identifying and measuring the key drivers effective in determining the sense of location of tourist destinations Case study: Isfahan, Journal of Tourism Planning and Development, 7 (26): 52-67.


37. Mousavi, M.N., Ghaderi, R., Taghiloo, A.A., and Kahaki, F. S. (2018): Development of land management feasibility scenarios (Case study: Khorasan Razavi province), Journal of town and country planning, 10 (1): 65-91.


38. Nasr, T. (2019): Identifying key factors affecting tourism in Shiraz metropolis with a future research approach, Journal of Urban Research and Planning, 10 (37): 55-66.


39. Omidi Shahabad, A., Badri, S.A, Rezvani, M.R., and Zali, N. (2019): Analysis of key factors affecting the formation of rural landscaping model with futuristic approach (Case study: Lorestan province), Journal of Rural Research, 10 (1): 92-113.


40. Pendar, M., Purigan, M., Bahrami, S., and Pourasghar Sangachin, Farzam. (2020): Study and leveling of deprivation in the northern provinces of the country. Journal of Regional Planning, 10 (38), 19-32.


41. Rahnama, M.R., Ajza shokohi, M., and Lotfollahi, S. (2019): Analysis of revitalization scenarios of Qaleh Abkooh urban area in Mashhad metropolis, Journal of Urban Research and Planning, 10 (38): 63-76.


42. Rahnama, M.R., Shakermi, K., and Abbasi, H. (2018): Identification and analysis of drivers affecting the regional development of Alborz province with a scenario-based planning approach, Scientific Journal of Land Management, 10 (1): 139-166.


43. Ratcliffe, J., & Krawczyk, E. (2011). Imagineering city futures: The use of prospective through scenarios in urban planning. Futures, 43(7), 642-653.‏


44. Rosen, J. (2018). How your science can shape policy Decision-makers need researchers' input on societal issues. Nature, 560(7720), 671-673.‏


45. Saif al-Dini, F., and Panahandeh Khah, M. (2010): Challenges and Barriers to Regional Development Planning in Iran, Journal of Human Geography Research, 42 (73): 98-83.


46. Salehi, A., and Pourasghar sangachin, F. (2009): An Analysis of Obstacles to Land Management in Iran, Journal of Strategy, 18 (52, Special for Economic Studies): 181-149.


47. Sardar, Z. (2010). The Namesake: Futures; futures studies; futurology; futuristic; foresight—What's in a name?. Futures, 42(3), 177-184.‏


48. Sarvar, R., & Khaliji, M.A. (2014): Pathology of land management programs in Iran. The First National Conference on New Approaches to Land Management in Iran, Semnan, Semnan University.


49. Schwab, K., & Sala-i-Martin, X. (Eds.). (2010, September). The global competitiveness report 2010-2011. Geneva: World Economic Forum.‏


50. Sedighi, A., Salman Mahini, AR, Mirkarimi, S.H., Daliri, H., and Fath, B. (2019): Identification and analysis of key drivers of regional planning based on future research in Gorgan city, Journal of Land Management, 11 (2): 205-233.


51. Seyedin, A., Amini Varki, S., Rostami, H., and Yazdani, M.H. (2017): Assessing the Spatial Vulnerability of Ardabil Province Infrastructures with a Passive Defense Approach, Journal of town and country planning, 9 (2): 362-333.


52. Sharifzadegan, M.H., and Razavi Dehkordi, S. A. (2010): Evaluate the planning process of “Land use planning" in Iran and ways to improve it, Environmental Sciences, 7 (4): 100-87.


53. Shoja, F., and Khatami, S.M. (2014): Pathology of implementation of planning projects in Iran. The First National Conference on New Approaches to Land Management in Iran, Semnan, Semnan University.


54. Soltani, N. (2013): Assessing the barriers to land management projects in Iran with an integrated approach, Space Planning and Planning, 17 (3): 63-84.


55. Stratigea, A. (2013). Participatory policy making in foresight studies at the regional level–a methodological approach. Regional Science Inquiry, 5(1), 145-160.‏


56. Stratigea, A., Giaoutzi, M. & Papadopoulou, Ch. (2010). Foresight analysis in AG2020: the case of Kastelli-Herakleion-Crete- A participatory methodological framework as a part of WP6 report titled: Foresight analysis on the regional basis-case studies. 1-151.


57. Taleshi, M., Afrakhteh, H. & Rahimipour Sheikhani Nejad, M.A. (2017). Analysis of the factors affecting changes in land cover patterns in rural districts in east of Guilan Province (Iran) for foresight. Review of Environment and Earth Sciences, 4(2), 51-65.


58. Taqi Lu, A. A., Soltani, N., and Aftab, A. (2016): Drivers of rural development in Iran]. Journal of Space Planning and Planning (Teacher of Humanities), 20 (4): 28-1.


59. Taqvaee, M., Beik Mohammadi, H., Zali, N., and Kasaei, M. (2017): Analysis of barriers and effective factors in the implementation of beauty plans and planning in Tehran province, Journal of town and country planning, 9 (1): 1-27.


60. Vivanco-Aranda, M., Mojica, F. J. & Martinez-Cordero, F. J. (2011). Foresight analysis of tilapia supply chain (Sistema Producto) in four states in Mexico: Scenario and Strategies for 2018. Technological Forecasting & Social Change. 78, 481-497.


61. Zali, N. (2011): Strategic foresight and regional policy with a scenario writing approach, Strategic Studies, 14 (4) (Series 54): 54-33.


62. Zali, N. (2012): Planning pathology in Iran by proposing a central mission in regional development policies, Journal of Regional Planning, 2 (6): 89-81.


63. Zali, N., & Mansouri S. (2015): Analysis of key factors affecting the development of sustainable transportation in the horizon of 1404 in the metropolis of Tehran (structural analysis method), Journal of Space Planning and Planning, 19 (2): 1-32.


64. Zegras, C., & Rayle, L. (2012). Testing the rhetoric: An approach to assess scenario planning's role as a catalyst for urban policy integration. Futures, 44(4), 303-318.‏


65. Ziari, K. A., and Mohammadi, A.R. (2016): Pathology of management of regional development plans in Iran and selection of the optimal management model], Journal of Geography and Regional Development, 14 (1): 88-67.


66. Ziari, K. A., Rabbani, T., and Saedmouchshi, R. (2017): Future research of a new paradigm in planning with emphasis on urban and regional planning (principles, concepts, approaches and methods). Tehran: Institute of Printing and Publishing, University of Tehran.