تدوین سناریوهای تحقق‌پذیری مدیریت تداوم کسب و کارهای خود اشتغالی زنان سرپرست خانوار با رویکرد آینده پژوهی در شهرستان چرداول- استان ایلام

محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی برنامه ریزی منطقه ای

حسین مهدی زاد ¹ (استادیار گروه کارآفرینی و توسعه روستایی، دانشگاه ایلام، ایلام، ایران.)
معصومه جمشیدی ² (استادیار مدعو گروه کارآفرینی و توسعه روستایی، دانشگاه ایلام، ایلام، ایران.)
علیرضا جمشیدی ³ (استادیار گروه جغرافیا، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران.)

تاریخ دریافت : 1399/09/30 تاریخ پذیرش : 1400/01/16 تاریخ انتشار : 1401/08/01

کلید واژه: "مدیریت تداوم کسب و کارهای خود اشتغالی", "آینده پژوهی", "سناریو‌نگاری", "شهرستان چرداول", "زنان سرپرست خانوار ",

چکیده مقاله :

آینده پژوهی در برنامه‌ریزی مدیریت تداوم کسب و کارهای خود اشتغالی زنان سرپرست خانوار سبب یافتن پیشران‌ها، متغیرهای کلیدی و عدم قطعیت‌های توسعه توانمندسازی اقتصادی زنان شده و مدیریت آینده مطلوب را رقم خواهد زد. هدف این پژوهش، شناسایی شاخص‌های اثرگذار بر تحقق مدیریت تداوم کسب و کارهای خود اشتغالی زنان سرپرست خانوار شهرستان چرداول، شناخت متغیرهای کلیدی و تدوین سناریوهای مؤثر بر تحقق‌پذیری آن بوده است. روش پژوهش حاضر از نظر هدف کاربردی و از نوع تحقیقات توصیفی-تحلیلی است که با رویکرد ساختاری تفسیری به منظور سنجش اثرات متقابل متغیرها، انجام شده است. این پژوهش از نظر ماهیت داده‌ها، ترکیبی است و بر اساس شیوه گردآوری داده‌ها اسنادی و پیمایشی می‌باشد. نتایج نشان داد که از بین سناریوهای تدوین شده 6 سناریو با سازگاری قوی، پیش روی آینده مدیریت تداوم کسب و کارهای خود اشتغالی زنان سرپرست خانوار تحت پوشش نهادای حمایتی کمیته امداد و اداره بهزیستی در شهرستان چرداول وجود دارد. از 6 سناریوی گفته شده، سه سناریوی یک، دو و سه دارای وضعیت کاملاً مطلوب هستند و سناریو یک بهترین و محتمل‌ترین سناریوی پیش‌روی مدیریت تداوم کسب و کار خود اشتغالی زنان سرپرست خانوار تحت پوشش در شهرستان چرداول است.
نتایج نشان داد که از بین سناریوهای تدوین شده 6 سناریو با سازگاری قوی، پیش روی آینده مدیریت تداوم کسب و کارهای خود اشتغالی زنان سرپرست خانوار تحت پوشش نهادای حمایتی کمیته امداد و اداره بهزیستی در شهرستان چرداول وجود دارد. از 6 سناریوی گفته شده، سه سناریوی یک، دو و سه دارای وضعیت کاملاً مطلوب هستند و سناریو یک بهترین و محتمل‌ترین سناریوی پیش‌روی مدیریت تداوم کسب و کار خود اشتغالی زنان سرپرست خانوار تحت پوشش در شهرستان چرداول است.

چکیده انگلیسی:

Futures Studies in Planning the Self-Employed Businesses Continuity for Women-Headed Households will find the key drivers, key variables, and uncertainties in the development of women's economic empowerment, and will shape the desired future management. The purpose of this study was to identify the factors affecting the management of women's self-employed business continuity management in Chardavol Township, identifying key variables and developing effective scenarios for its realization. The purpose of this study is practical and it is a descriptive-analytical research conducted with an interpretive structural approach to measure the interactions of variables. In terms of the nature of the data, this research is a combination (quantitative and qualitative) and is based on documentary and survey data collection method. The results showed that out of the developed scenarios, there are 6 scenarios with strong adaptation to the future of self-employed women business continuity management in Chardavol. Of the six scenarios mentioned, three scenarios one, two, and three are perfectly desirable, and scenario 1 is the best-case scenario of managing self-employed business continuity of women-headed households in Chardavol.
The results showed that out of the developed scenarios, there are 6 scenarios with strong adaptation to the future of self-employed women business continuity management in Chardavol. Of the six scenarios mentioned, three scenarios one, two, and three are perfectly desirable, and scenario 1 is the best-case scenario of managing self-employed business continuity of women-headed households in Chardavol.
The results showed that out of the developed scenarios, there are 6 scenarios with strong adaptation to the future of self-employed women business continuity management in Chardavol. Of the six scenarios mentioned, three scenarios one, two, and three are perfectly desirable, and scenario 1 is the best-case scenario of managing self-employed business continuity of women-headed households in Chardavol.

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