سنجش مزیت نسبی فعالیت‌های اقتصادی در استان‌های کشور بر اساس رهیافت ضریب مکانی
محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی برنامه ریزی منطقه ای
سیده نرگس آقامحمدی
1
(دانشجوی دکتری اقتصاد، واحد اراک، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اراک، ایران)
غلامعلی حاجی
2
(استادیار گروه اقتصاد، واحد اراک، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اراک، ایران)
هادی غفاری
3
(دانشیار گروه اقتصاد، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران)
پیمان غفاری آشتیانی
4
(دانشیار گروه مدیریت بازرگانی، واحد اراک، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، اراک، ایران)
کلید واژه: مزیت نسبی, ضریب مکانی, اقتصاد منطقه‌ای, بخش‌های اقتصادی,
چکیده مقاله :
در مبحث اقتصاد منطقه‌ای و با توجه به محدودیت منابع موجود، شناخت ویژگی‌ها و مزیت‌های اقتصادی هر استان، امکان برنامه‌ریزی بهتر را در جهت تحقق اهداف توسعه فراهم می‌نماید. تحقق توسعه ملی، مستلزم شناخت مزیت‌های اقتصادی مناطق مختلف کشور است. هدف این مقاله شناخت مزیت نسبی زیربخش‌های اقتصادی استان‌ها طی سال‌های 1384 و 1394 می‌باشد. ابزار سنجش، مدل اقتصاد پایه و شاخص ضریب مکانی است که با استفاده از آمار مربوط به حساب‌های منطقه‌ای بانک مرکزی و مرکز آمار ایران برای 30 استان محاسبه شده است. ضریب مکانی، اهمیت نسبی یک فعالیت را در منطقه نسبت به اهمیت نسبی همان فعالیت در اقتصاد ملی نشان می‌دهد که توسط محققان حوزه جغرافیای اقتصادی و اقتصاد منطقه‌ای مورد استفاده قرار گرفته است. بررسی‌ها در این مقاله نشان می‌دهد که فعالیت‌های کشاورزی، شکار و جنگلداری، ساختمان، آموزش، بهداشت و مددکاری اجتماعی، هتل و رستوران در بیشتر استان‌ها دارای مزیت شناخته شده، فعالیت‌های اقتصادی صنعت، آب و برق و گاز، حمل و نقل و اداره عمومی، شهری در اکثر استان ها مزیت خود را از دست داده و غالباً ماهیگیری، معدن و واسطه‌گری‌های مالی در استان‌ها فاقد مزیت هستند. همچنین بررسی‌ها نشان می‌دهد که در رتبهبندی، بخش خدمات با 7/51 درصد در رتبه اول، صنعت با 7/38 در رتبه دوم و کشاورزی با 6/9 درصد در رتبه سوم سهم ارزش افزوده از کل تولیدات کشور قرار گرفته است. نتایج به دست آمده از روش ضریب مکانی طبق تقسیم‌بندی‌های پانزده‌گانه، فعالیت‌های دارای مزیت را در هر یک از استان‌ها نشان می‌دهد. لذا لازم است برنامه‌ریزان ملی و منطقه‌ای با توجه به مزیت‌های موجود در استان‌ها، در خصوص سرمایه‌گذاری، تخصیص منابع و تنظیم بودجه تصمیم‌گیری نمایند تا منجر به رشد اقتصادی مناطق کشور شود.
In the discussion of regional economy and considering the Scarcity of resources and facilities available, understanding the economic characteristics and advantages of each province enables better planning for the achievement of development goals. Realizing national development requires recognizing the economic benefits of different regions of the country. The purpose of this article is to identify the relative advantage of the economic subdivisions of the provinces during the years 2005-2015. The instrument is a measurement of the basic economy model and the location quotient (LQ) calculated using data from the regional accounts of the Central Bank of Iran and the Statistics Center of Iran for 30 provinces. The location quotient indicate the relative importance of an activity in the region relative to the relative importance of the same activity in the national economy and has been used by researchers in economic geography and regional economics. Surveys in this article show that agriculture, hunting and forestry, building, education, health and social assistance, hotels and restaurants have a recognized advantage in most provinces. Whereas the economic activities of industry, water and electricity, gas, transportation and public administration in most of the provinces have lost their advantage, often fishing, mining and financial intermediaries in the provinces have no advantage. Surveys also show that in terms of value-added share of total productions of the country, the services sector is at the first place with 51.7 percent, industry sector is at the second place with 38.7 percent and agriculture sector is at the third place with 9.6 percent. The results of the location quotient method show that according to the fifteen subdivisions, the priority activities in each province. Therefore, it is necessary for national and regional planners to make decisions regarding investment, resource allocation and budget adjustment in order to lead to economic growth in the country.
Keywords: regional economic, relative advantage, location quotient, economic sectors.
Extended Abstract
Introduction:
Economic growth and development of the country has always been one of the most important issues in the regional economy. The realization of national development requires recognition of the economic opportunities and advantages of different regions of the country. In national development planning, the economic potential of the regions is not given much attention. Despite the implementation of numerous national and regional development programs, the underdevelopment process continues. Therefore, recognizing these advantages is essential for formulating and implementing effective economic development policies (Sobhani & Darvish, 2005: 163). In this paper, the location coefficient is used to evaluate the relative advantage. LQ; A simple ratio of the share of a particular activity of the total activity of a region to the share of the same activity in total activity in the national economy is defined. The location coefficient was first introduced by Sergeant Florence. A method that mathematically evaluates the regional economy as opposed to the larger reference economy, usually the national economy (Florence, 1943: 128-130). In this index, variables such as sector value added, sector production rate, employment rate, investment rate, etc. Each of the province's economic activities are measured against the same variable in the country.
Methodology:
This is an analytical-descriptive and applied study. Required data were extracted from data on regional accounts of the Central Bank and the Statistics Center of Iran. The measuring tool of this paper is the basic economy model and the spatial index, Data processing and classification using Excel software for the years 2005 and 2015 calculated at the provincial level and the data were analyzed accordingly. The statistical population used is 30 provinces from 31 provinces of Iran for 2005 and 2015. Since there is no information about Alborz province before 2011, Therefore, this province is considered as a whole with Tehran province.
Result and Discussion:
The following fifteen sections have been considered to examine economic activity: agriculture, hunting & forestry, fishing, mining, industry, water & electricity, building, wholesale & retail & vehicle repair, hotel & restaurant, transportation & warehousing & communications, financial intermediaries, real estate & rental, public works & utilities, education, health and social work and other public and social services.
If the location quotient index is greater than one, the desired activity is basic and if it is smaller than one, it is called non- basic. (Hoan & Oosterhaven, 2006: 677-691). We also examine the share of sector employees in the provinces in examining the advantages of economic sectors. Only in North Khorasan this share belongs to agriculture and in Markazi and Yazd provinces to industry. The highest share of service workers belonged to Bushehr, Tehran and Qom respectively and the lowest to North Khorasan and Zanjan respectively. The largest share in the industry is allocated to Yazd, Markazi province, Qom and Isfahan and Kermanshah and North Khorasan respectively. Services are mostly related to North Khorasan, Kerman and Ardabil and least to Tehran, Qom and Yazd. In order to better analyze the comparison of provincial spatial coefficients during these two years is considered as 1.25. The situation of the provinces is growing, declining, steady, emerging, declining and disadvantaged (Tian, 2013: 187-197 ؛ Mirzaei et al, 2012: 205).
Conclusion:
In the discussion of regional economy and considering the Scarcity of resources and facilities available, understanding the economic characteristics and advantages of each province enables better planning for the achievement of development goals. Realizing national development requires recognizing the economic benefits of different regions of the country.
The results of this study indicate that; similar to other studies, the basic activity model and the coefficient of location quotient are generally a good method for assessing the status of economic activities in different regions. Therefore, it is recommended that national and regional planners have a comparative advantage in identifying the basics and activities in each province.
In agriculture and forestry sector, out of 30 provinces, except Isfahan, Bushehr, Tehran, Khuzestan, Qom and Kohgiluyeh, activity in other provinces is a base. But despite advances in agriculture and forestry, during the ten-year period studied in Khorasan Razavi, North and South Khorasan, Hamadan and Kurdistan are on the risings, in Ilam and Yazd and in the rest of the privileged provinces, are declining. The advantage of the fishing sector during the period 2005-2015 except for Zanjan, Kohkiluyeh and Lorestan has been declining in the rest of the provinces. In the mining sector over the ten-year period only Khuzestan and Kohgiluyeh show an improving trend. Industry advantage in Zanjan and Qazvin has been growing. In the water, electricity and gas sectors, only the advantage of Fars and Bushehr provinces is growing. The building sector in 2005 was basic in all provinces except Ilam, Bushehr, Tehran, South and North Khorasan, Khuzestan, Kerman, Kermanshah, Markazi and Kohgiluyeh. Only West Azerbaijan shows a rising trend. The advantage of wholesale, retail and repair of equipment during the ten year period in East Azerbaijan, Tehran, Khorasan Razavi, North and South, Qom, Kurdistan, Golestan, Gilan and Mazandaran is decreasing. Only in Ardabil has the growing trend. Hotel and Restaurant In 2015, about 30% of the provinces are recognized as basical activity. The transport and communications sector in most of the provinces has been declining. The activity of financial intermediaries during the period of Tehran alone has been a growing trend. Ins the real estate, renting and business sector over the ten-year period only Golestan province is growing and Hamadan is emerging. Education in most provinces is a well-known base, though only in Semnan, North Khorasan, Golestan, and Kurdistan over the ten-year period, there is a rising trend and an advantage in Ilam. The advantage of this section illustrates the downward trend in the rest. The advantage of health activities has only increased in West Azerbaijan, Chaharmahal, Zanjan, Kurdistan and Hamedan.
- Akbari, N., Esmailpour, A., & Sarkhosh Sara, A. (2013). Analysis of themployment Status of Macro Sectors Economy of Kermanshah Province Cities. Amayesh Journal, 6(20), 81-108. [In Persian].
- Alhowaish, A. K., Alsharikh, M. A., Alasmail, M. A., & Alghamdi, Z. A. (2015). Location Quotient Technique and Economy Analysis of Regions: Tabuk Province of Saudi Arabia as a Case Study. International Journal of Science and Research, 4(12), 1756-1761.
- Askarpoor Kabir, F., Hari, H., & Jalani, S.A. (2013). Investigating the relative advantage of Iran's natural honey using the domestic resource cost index. Agricultural Economics, 34, 87-101.[In Persian].
- Azadinejad, A., Asari Arani, A., & Jahangard, E. (2014). The Introduction and Application of MFLQ Method Instead AFLQ Method for Creation of Regional Input - Output Table (a Case Study of Khorasan Razavi). Journal of Economy and Regional Development, 5, 168-188. [In Persian].
- Bashford Fernández, J. M. (2014). A New Look at Local Employment Multipliers: Preliminary Evidence from Spain. See at: https://www.researchgate.net/publication/266852168, 1-46.
- Behrens, K & Bougna, T. (2015). An anatomy of the geographical concentration of Canadian manufacturing industries. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 51, 47-69.
- Dadvarkhani, F., Darban astane, A., Najjarzade, M., Torabi, Z., & Hajari, B. (2019). Spatial analysis of Iranian rural women's employment pattern in services sector. Quarterly Scientific- Specialty Journal of Regional Planning, Marvdasht, 8(32), 1-10. [In Persian].
- Darvishi, B., & Asgari, H. (2006). Orientation of the Comparative Advantage of some Newly Industrialized Southeast Asian Countries (NICs) and Comparison with Iran, Economic Research, 23, 263-297. [in Persian].
-Farhoodi, R., & Mohammadi, A. (2006). Analyzing and predicting employment status in Sanandaj city using the coefficientپ of variation coefficient and Gini coefficient. Geographical Research, 55, 189-202. [In Persian].
- Florence, S. (1943). Industrial Location and National Resources. National Resources Planning Board, Washington, 128-130.
- Ghaffari Fard, M., & Khosh Sima, R. (2017). Identification of economic sectors that stimulate job creation in different provinces of Iran and its perspectives (transmission approach - share). Quarterly Journal of Fiscal and Economic Policies, 14, 7-32. [In Persian].
- Gilmer, R. W. (1990). Identifying Service-Sector Exports from Major Texas Cities. Economic Review-Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, 1-16.
- Gilmer, R. W., Keil, S. R., & Hack, R. S. (1989). The Location Quotient and Central Place Theory (No. 8916). Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
- Guimarães, P., Figueiredo, O., & Woodward, D. (2009). Dartboard Tests for the Location Quotient. Regional Science and Urban Economics, 39(3), 360-364.
- Hoan, AR. & Oosterhaven. (2006). On the measurement of comparative advantage. Ann Reg, 40,677-691.
- Islam, F. B., Mubassirah, F. A., Siddiq, F., Hossain, D., Sharmin, N., & Haque, A. (2016). Economic Growth Analysis of Six Divisions of Bangladesh Using Location Quotient and Shift-Share Method. Journal of Bangladesh Institute of Planners, 8, 135-144.
- Isserman, A. M. (1977). The Location Quotient Approach tTo Estimating Regional Economic Impacts. Journal of the American Institute of Planners, 43(1), 33-41.
-Javanshiri, M., & Shyan, H. (2017). Spatial Analysis of the employment comparative advantage of Iran Provinces at The major occupational groups between 2006-2011.Quarterly Scientific- Specialty Journal of Regional Planning, Marvdasht,7(27), 1-20. [In Persian].
-Kia, E., & Ramezanian, M.R. (2012). The Comparative Advantage and Importance of Export Markets of Iran's Saffron Export Markets, Thesis, Payam Noor University, Alborz, 53-59. [In Persian].
- Layeqi, E., Ghasemi, P., & Babaei, N. (2012). A Comparative Study of the Comparative Advantage of Agricultural Production and Employment in the Provinces of the Country. Economic Journal, 12, 83-110. [In Persian].
- Maghsoudi, M. (2013). Income on employment in the main parts of Tehran province based on input-output. Quarterly Journal of Urban Economics and Management, 19, 63-78. [In Persian].
- Mirzaei, H., Shakeri, A., & Arab Mazar Yazdi, A. (2012). A document on the development of employment and investment Golestan province, General Directorate of Labor and Social Affairs, Study plan, 205. [In Persian].
- Miller, M. M., Gibson, L. J., & Wright, N. G. (1991). Location Quotient: A Basic Tool for Economic Development Analysis. Economic Development Review, 9(2), 65-68.
- Otsuka, A. (2016). Regional Energy Demand in Japan: Dynamic Shift-Share Analysis. Energy, Sustainability and Society, 6(1), 10-22.
- Sadeghi Shahdani, M., & Ghaffari Fard, M. (2010). Study of relative advantages and structural analysis of gross domestic product in the provinces of the country. Quarterly Journal of Economic Research and Policy Journal of Economic Research and Policies, 50,115-136. [In Persian].
- Sarvar, H., Sarvar, R., & Sarbaz Goli, S. (2018). Analysis of the employment status of major economic sectors city province of Ardabil. Quarterly Scientific- Specialty Journal of Regional Planning, Marvdasht, 7(28), 81-94. [In Persian].
- Sitanggang, M. (2015). The Contribution of Agriculture Sector to the Economic Development (Case Study: North Sumatera). Global Advanced Research Journal of Agriculture Science, 4(11), 769-774.
- Sobhani, H., & Darvishi, B. (2006). Comparative advantages and structural analysis of employment in Ilam. Journal of Economic Research (Tahghighat-e-Eghtesadi), Tehran,
3(40), 159-187. [In Persian].
- Tian, Zh. (2013) Measuring Agglomeration Using the Standardized Location Quotient with a Bootstrap Method. The Journal of Regional Analysis & Policy, 43(2), 187-197.
- UTSA, (1991), the Demand for Engineers in the Valley, Instituta for studies in Business, San Antonio Labor Market Information System, 12-15.
- Zayyari, K. (2002). Study, Analysis and Planning of Employment in Yazd Province. Geographic Survey, 61, 89-107. [In Persian].
- ............, Summary of Labor Force Survey Plan Results for 2015, Iran Statistics Center Website, www.amar.org.ir (visited November, 2019). [In Persian].
- ..........., National Accounts of Iran (Regional Accounts) 2015, Iran Statistics Center Website, www.amar.org.ir (visited November, 2019). [In Persian].
- ............, Statistical Yearbooks of the country in the year 2005-2015, Iran Statistics Center website, www.amar.org.ir, (visited January, 2019). [In Persian].
_||_