بررسی و سطح‌بندی میزان محرومیت در استان‌های شمالی کشور
محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی برنامه ریزی منطقه ای
مهدی پندار
1
(استادیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، پردیس کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی دانشگاه تهران، کرج، ایران)
محمد پوریگان
2
(کارشناس امور برنامه‌ریزی، نظارت و آمایش سرزمین، سازمان برنامه و بودجه کشور، تهران، ایران)
سجاد بهرامی
3
(کارشناس امور برنامه‌ریزی، نظارت و آمایش سرزمین، سازمان برنامه و بودجه کشور، تهران، ایران)
فرزام پوراصغر سنگاچین
4
(رئیس گروه محیط‌زیست، امور برنامه‌ریزی، نظارت و آمایش سرزمین، سازمان برنامه و بودجه کشور، تهران، ایران)
کلید واژه: محرومیت چندگانه, دهستان, برآورد انقباض, استان‌های شمالی,
چکیده مقاله :
توسعه متعادل منطقه‌ای به عنوان یکی از موضوعات اصلی مورد نظر در آمایش سرزمین و در راستای توسعه پایدار به حساب می‌آید و به برابری شرایط زندگی و مؤلفه‌های اقتصادی و اجتماعی توسعه برای تمامی مردم در سطح کشور تأکید می‌نماید. با توجه به منطقه‌بندی کشور در جهت مطالعات ملی آمایش سرزمین و به منظور اتخاذ تصمیمات مقتضی برای توسعه متعادل منطقه‌ای، برنامهریزان ابتدا باید وضعیت مناطق مختلف را از نظر سطح توسعه‌یافتگی و محرومیت مورد بررسی و تحلیل قرار دهند. با توجه به تشابهات فرهنگی و اجتماعی و شرایط اقلیمی نسبتاً یکسان در استان‌های شمالی کشور، در این مطالعه استان‌های مازندران، گیلان و گلستان مورد بررسی قرار گرفته‌اند. در این پژوهش با استفاده از برآورد انقباض شاخصها پالایش شده، از روش تحلیل مولفههای اصلی به منظور تعیین وزن شاخصها و از تابع توزیع نمایی به منظور ترکیب رتبهها در دستههای مختلف استفاده شده است. سطح جغرافیایی مورد نظر در این مطالعه، دهستان بوده و از 21 مورد از مهم‌ترین شاخص‌های اقتصادی و خدمات زیربنایی و اجتماعی استفاده شده است. میزان محرومیت در این مطالعه در 5 طبقه محرومیت زیاد، محروم، محرومیت متوسط، محرومیت کم و محرومیت ناچیز سطح‌بندی گردیده است. در این مطالعه 301 دهستان مورد بررسی قرار گرفتند و با استفاده از روش محاسبه شاخص ترکیبی محرومیت چندگانه، شاخص هر کدام از دهستان‌ها محاسبه شد. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که از مجموع 301 دهستان حدود 120 دهستان محرومیت زیاد و محروم شناسایی شدند که حدود 40 درصد از دهستان‌های یاد شده را تشکیل می‌دهد. حدود 15 درصد نیز دارای محرومیت متوسط و حدود 45 درصد از دهستان‌ها نیز با محرومیت کم تا محرومیت ناچیز شناسایی شدند. همچنین بر اساس این تحلیل‌ها بیشترین دهستان‌های با محرومیت بسیار زیاد (40 درصد) در استان گلستان شناسایی شدند.
Balance regional development is one of the key subjects in spatial planning and sustainable development and emphasizes on equal life conditions, economic and social components for all people in country. Regarding to the country zoning towards national spatial planning study and to make appropriate decision in right time for equal regional development, planners at first must examine and analyze the status of different regions in terms of developmental level and deprivation. Considering the cultural and social similarities and the relatively similar climatic conditions in north provinces of the country, in this study, the provinces of Mazandaran, Gilan and Golestan have been studied. In this research, shrinkage estimation was used to refine indices, the main components analysis method was used to determine the weight of the indices and the exponential distribution function in order to combine the rankings in different categories. The geographical level in this study is rural district (Dehestan) and 21 of the most important economic and infrastructure and social services indices have been used. The deprivation rate in this study has been categorized in five categories: most deprivation, deprivation, moderate deprivation, low deprivation and marginal deprivation. In this study, 301 rural districts (Dehestan) were surveyed and the indice of each district was calculated using the multiple indices of deprivation. The results show that out of a total of 301 districts, around 120 extreme deprived and deprived district were identified, accounting for about 40% of the rural districts. About 15% had a moderate deprivation, and about 45% of rural districts were identified as low deprivation area to marginal deprivation. Based on these analyzes, most districts with very high deprivation (40%) were identified in Golestan province. Extended Abstract Introduction: Making policies unregard to regional equilibrium and integrated development of regions in Iran has led to limited developed poles and many underdeveloped areas in other words deprived areas in the past (Salehi and Pour Asghar Sangachin, 2009, p. 15). Multiple deprivation indices require measuring dimensions or deprivation indices separately, such as deprivation of employment, deprivation of education, deprivation of facilities and so on which are then combined into separate indices of appropriate weight (Townsend, 1988, p. 131). The issue of deprivation and imbalance has been the subject of controversy of policy makers and planners in the country since decades. Measurements have been taken to identify deprived areas and then policies to eliminate deprivation and development in deprived areas. Therefore, it is inevitable to formulate and adjust programs tailored to the conditions of each land of area, in overall, and the northern provinces in particular to reduce regional disparities, identifying and understanding the differences between regions. The main purpose of this study is to investigate the deprivation in the rural areas of the country in a case study of the three northern provinces named Mazandaran, Golestan and Guilan using index of multiple deprivation. Methodology: To increase the accuracy of ranking and identifying deprived areas, the country's smallest political subdivision, the countryside, has been used as the basis for ranking and comparison. According to the studied components, the research environment is a descriptive-analytical approach. To do this, the indices of development and deprivation were gotten from Plan and Budget organizations of Guilan, Mazandaran and Golestan provinces. After collecting the indices and components related to deprivation, they were classified into 21 major economic and infrastructural and social groups by studying the resources and theoretical framework of the issue and refining the data. After data collection, a conceptual framework for the work flow was designed and needed process on data were computed using a shrinkage estimation to increase data reliability at the local level. Also, Factor analysis (FA) was used based on dependencies of the indices to determine the weights of the indices. Finally, after determining the indices and their dimensions and applying the necessary statistical techniques, the quantitative value of the multiple deprivation index was computed and Ranked, which is actually the score of each small subdivision. Results and discussion: For indices combination into categories (to find the appropriate weight of each index), factor analysis was used that is based on interdependence between indices. Factor analysis has two widely used methods, the Principal Component Analysis (PCA) and the Maximum Similarity Method. The principal component analysis assumes that the data are accurate and reliable, but in the maximum likelihood method this assumption is not needed. Therefore, the maximal similarity method for extracting weights has been prioritized as a factor analysis method. Comparative comparisons of provinces show that the most deprived subdivisions are in Golestan and after that in Guilan and finally in Mazandaran. By comparing the number of subdivisions with minor deprivation with highly deprived in provinces, it can be seen that the difference between these two groups in Golestan is more than 41% in Gilan 19% and 9%in Mazandaran. Also, according to this chart, the share of subdivisions with a poor deprivation in the Guilan is 38%, which is higher than Mazandaran and Golestan provinces with 16% and 6% respectively. In other words, the share of poor deprived subdivision of Guilan is higher than other provinces. Conclusion: In this study, 21 indices from 301 subdivisions were evaluated and the indice of each subdivision was computed using Index of Multiple Deprivation. Based on these computation, about 120 more deprived and deprived subdistricts, out of the total 301 were identified, accounting about 40% of the aforementioned. About 15 percent of them had moderate deprivation and about 45% of the subdivision with low deprivation to minor deprivation were identified. According to these analyses, the most heavily deprived subdistricts (40%) were identified in Golestan province and Gilan and Mazandaran provinces were ranked 35% and 16% respectively. One of the most important findings of this study is that although there have been numerous deprivation measures in the country in general and the northern provinces in particular over the past years, deprivation continues to be observed in different provinces. The indices identified in this study were collected and analyzed according to the requirements of these provinces, which can be used as a basis for decision making and prioritization in the allocation of resources by regional institutions. The multiple deprivation index method, given its capabilities, can provide a relatively illustrative picture of deprivation status in different regions.
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