تحلیل سیاسی امنیتی بحران آب در غرب ایران (مطالعه موردی : منطقه اورامانات استان کرمانشاه)
محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی برنامه ریزی منطقه ای
1 - استادیار گروه جغرافیا، واحد کرمانشاه، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، کرمانشاه، ایران.
کلید واژه: استان کرمانشاه, بحران آب, امنیت, بازتوانی, منطقه اورامانات,
چکیده مقاله :
امروزه یکی از مهمترین چالشهای حال و آینده به ویژه در مناطق خشک جهان، مسأله کم آبی و در مواردی بحران کم آبی است. باید پذیرفت که با رشد جمعیت جهان در هزاره سوم، ارتقای سطح زندگی و بهداشت، گسترش شهرنشینی و صنایع و گسترش کشاورزی، تنازع بر سر آب تشدید مییابد. این پژوهش از نظر ماهیت از نوع تحقیقات بنیادی- کاربردی و به لحاظ داده از نوع تحقیقات کمی- کیفی محسوب میشود که به روش توصیفی- تحلیلی انجام شده است. از اینرو، هدف مقاله، تحلیل سیاسی- امنیتی بحران آب در منطقه اورامانات استان کرمانشاه میباشد. پرسش اصلی این است که وضعیت سیاسی-امنیتی بحران آب در منطقه اورامانات استان کرمانشاه چگونه است؟ برای انجام تحقیق جامعه آماری، خانوارهای منطقه اورامانات استان کرمانشاه میباشند. حجم نمونه با استفاده از جدول مورگان، 384 خانوار تعیین گردید. روش نمونهگیری، خوشهای است. طبق تحلیل، نتایج حاصل از وزندهی ابعاد امنیت اجتماعی آب توسط متخصصان، برگشتپذیری زیرساختی و ظرفیت مقابله در برابر خشکسالی، دارای بالاترین درجه اهمیت در شکلگیری مفهوم امنیت اجتماعی آب میباشند. در مجموع، سطح امنیتی آب در منطقه مورد مطالعه نسبتاً پایین بوده است.
Today, one of the most important challenges of the present and the future, especially in the arid regions of the world, is the issue of water shortage and in some cases the water shortage crisis. It must be acknowledged that the water dispute is intensifying as the world's population grows in the third millennium, living standards and health improve, urbanization and industry expand, and agriculture expands. In terms of nature, this research is a basic-applied research and in terms of data, it is a quantitative and qualitative research that has been done by descriptive-analytical method. Therefore, the aim of the article is to analyze the political-security water crisis in Oramanat region of Kermanshah province. The main question is, what is the political-security situation of the water crisis in Oramanat region of Kermanshah province? Therefore, the present study investigates the political and security crisis of the water crisis in the Oramanat region of Kermanshah province. The present study of analytical-survey type. The statistical population of the study is the heads of households in five regions of Oramanat, Kermanshah province. The sample size was determined using Morgan table, about 384 households. The sampling method is cluster sampling. According to the analysis of the results of weighting the dimensions of water social security by experts, infrastructure reversibility and drought resistance capacity are of the highest importance in shaping the concept of water social security. Overall, the level of water security in the study area was relatively low.
Extended Abstract
Introduction
Water is a multi-dimensional problem that requires attention to economic, social, political and cultural dimensions. In the form of water policy (hydropolitics), the impact of human factors on the water situation is investigated through water basin policies and governmental and non-governmental reactions. Water policy is a policy affected by access to water and its resources, which is recognized as a necessity for all forms of life and human development (Waterbury, 2014). One of the reasons for the water policy plan has been the constant challenge among humans over valuable, unstable and scarce water resources. Water is a competitive substance that multidimensional security of activists depends on it and is of concern to them as a national and transnational security concern. Hydropolitics is the study of the political, economic, social and environmental aspects of water, which aims to promote political stability, sustainable economic and environmental development at local, national, regional and global scales. Kermanshah province, despite the mountainous and semi-humid climatic conditions, but due to the high population distribution in the region, the lack of proper management and the lack of comprehensive plans in the water sector, is exposed to water-based risks, especially drought and flood (Amanpour et al. , 2015: 61). On the other hand, in rural areas, due to the dependence on the geographical and geological background, the amount of economic, environmental and social damage is more evident (Romiyani et al, 2017: 21). Knowing the level of water security in villages that depend on water resources can be considered an effective measure to strengthen it and thus prevent irreparable disasters.
Methodology
According to the nature and objectives of the research subject, the present research method is considered to be quantitative research in terms of nature, and it is practical in terms of purpose. The method of this research is descriptive-survey based on how to obtain the required data. The statistical population of the research is the heads of households in Oramat region (Paveh, Ravansar, Javanroud and Salas Babajani). The sample size was determined using Morgan's table, around 384 households. The sampling method is a cluster method. The tool for collecting information to achieve the objectives of the study was a questionnaire. Expert Choice software was used to analyze pairwise comparisons. For the validity of the questionnaire, a number of university professors in the field of water security confirmed the questions. Also, in terms of reliability, the value of Cronbach's alpha coefficient for all the investigated variables is greater than 0.7, which indicates the favorable state of reliability of the investigated variables.
Results and Discussion
Examining the items for measuring the security threats caused by water shortages show that the item, transnational migration, adverse effect on identity and human security, and transnational and transnational military conflicts have the highest average and weight on the threats and insecurity caused by drought and water scarcity. In fact, today the migration crisis is of great importance in the region and its security effects will increase in the future. This will gradually happen in the two forms of migrant-sending and migrant-receiving in both internal and international dimensions, it will cause an increase in social insecurity, because the activists who are facing water insecurity and for the above-mentioned reasons resort to internal and external migration. represents, brings identity forces into or out of the country and city, which in both voices of the society's identity faces existential insecurity. It will have serious damages in different dimensions on different activists. Therefore, the water crisis can cause lack of jobs, income, reduction of sufficient and healthy food, increase in food prices, destruction of plant and animal species and as a result food insecurity, structural violence, political instability, weak governance, reduction of economic power, disappearance of job opportunities and provide and in this direction dictates migration as a solution to the people of the society, this migration may take place from within the country and from a city with less water resources to a city with a better water situation or from one country to another country, each of which It causes its own insecurities.
Conclusion
In recent years in Iran, there have been events such as the shortage or inappropriate quality of water in the urban network, the encroachment of urban areas on the water resources of rural areas due to the increase in population, protests against the process of transferring water basin to water basin, local tensions regarding the use of resources. Water, especially among farmers, and even reactions in protest against the drying up of rivers, wetlands and internal lakes indicate the politicization of the water crisis in Iran. So far, if we accept that there is a water crisis in Iran and also accept that this crisis has taken on a political burden many times, not only the process of explaining the consequences of the political water crisis will become easier and more understandable, but also the ways to prevent its destructive consequences will become more possible. Of course, it is important to mention that despite the many similarities between the effects and consequences of tensions and political conflicts at the supranational and subnational levels, there is a key difference between these two, and that is that there is no general law and arbitration in transnational political conflicts And now, in transnational political conflicts, if there is a powerful government, the arbiter of that government can end the process of conflicts, regardless of whether the distribution of resources is fair or not. The water crisis in Iran has been raised as an important issue that requires attention at the macro level of management. According to the findings of the research, in the west of the country and Arvamanat region of Kermanshah province, the issue of water crisis and political security challenges is also raised. It can be seen in the tables in the text based on the issues raised and what the respondents answered as a sample size.
