تدوین سناریوهای مؤثر بر پیشرفت اسلامی- ایرانی با رویکرد برنامه ریزی منطقه ای (مورد: استان آذربایجان غربی)

محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی برنامه ریزی منطقه ای

میرنجف موسوی ¹ (دانشیار گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، دانشگاه ارومیه، ارومیه، ایران)

تاریخ دریافت : 1395/12/13 تاریخ پذیرش : 1396/09/18 تاریخ انتشار : 1396/10/01

کلید واژه: توسعه منطقه ای, عدم قطعیت, آذربایجان غربی, الگوی اسلامی-ایرانی پیشرفت, آینده پژوهی,

چکیده مقاله :

اﻟﮕﻮی اﺳﻼﻣﯽ- اﯾﺮاﻧﯽ ﭘﯿﺸﺮﻓﺖ با رویکرد ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪای، ﭼﺎرﭼﻮﺑﯽ ﺑﺮای ﺗﻌﯿﯿﻦ ﻣﺴﯿﺮ ﺣﺮﮐﺖ اﻗﺘﺼﺎد ﻣﻨﺎﻃﻖ ﮐﺸﻮر، ﻫﻢراﺳﺘﺎ ﺑﺎ ﺟﻬﺖﮔﯿﺮی اﺳﻼﻣﯽ- ﻣﻠﯽ ﭘﯿﺸﺮﻓﺖ اﺳﺖ. ﻣﺒﻨﺎی اﯾـﻦ اﻟﮕﻮ، ﻧﻈﺮﯾﻪ ﻋﺪاﻟﺖ اﻗﺘﺼﺎدی ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪای و ﻣﻌﯿﺎرﻫﺎی ﮐﻠﯽ آن، ﺗﺤﻘﻖ ﻋﺪاﻟﺖ ﺗﻮزﯾﻌﯽ و ﺗﺨﺼﯿﺼﯽ در ﺳﻄﻮح ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪای و ﺑﯿﻦﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪای اﺳﺖ. هدف پژوهش حاضر تدوین سناریوهای مؤثر بر پیشرفت اسلامی ایرانی با رویکرد برنامه­ریزی منطقه­ای (آذربایجان­غربی) است. نوع تحقیق کاربردی- توسعه­ای و روش بررسی آن با توجه به روش­های جدید آینده­پژوهی، پیمایش نظرات متخصصان (در چند مرحله) در قالب پرسشنامه (به صورت ماتریس اثرات متقابل) است. برای تجزیه و تحلیل نتایج تحقیق از نرم­افزارهای میک­مک و سناریو ویزارد استفاده شده است. عوامل­کلیدی مؤثر بر پیشرفت اسلامی- ایرانی با استفاده از نرم­افزار میک­مک [1] مشخص­شد و برای هرکدام از عوامل­کلیدی چند عدم­قطعیت در نظر گرفته­شد و در نهایت سناریوهای مهم تأثیرگذار در پیشرفت آینده استان با استفاده از نرم افزار سناریو ویزارد[2] تدوین شد. با توجه به نتایج نرم افزار میک­مک 8 عامل کلیدی تأثیرگذار شناسایی شدند. نتایج مستخرج از سناریو ویزارد 8 سناریو با سازگاری قوی، 124 سناریو با سازگاری ضعیف و 121 سناریوی ناسازگار بود. از بین سناریوهای محتمل سناریوی شماره 8 بهترین وضعیت­ها را برای آینده پیشرفت اسلامی- ایرانی استان در بر دارد. سناریوهای شماره 7، 6، 5 سناریوهایی هستند که بیشتر روند موجود را برای آینده استان در نظر گرفته­اند و در نهایت سناریوهای شماره 4، 2، 1، 3 سناریوهایی هستند که شامل وضعیت­های نسبتاً بحرانی و بحرانی هستند.
[1] . MICMAC [2] . Scenario wizard

چکیده انگلیسی:

Islamic-Iranian progress model With a regional approach, the framework for determining the course of the economy of the country's regions is in line with the Islamic-national orientation of progress. The basis of this model is the theory of regional economic justice and its general criteria, the realization of distributive justice and appropriation at the regional and inter-regional levels. the goal of this research is develop scenarios for the development of Islam in West Azerbaijan Province, With the approach of regional planning. research type is practical-development and as its analysis method according to new methods futurology, scrolling comments experts in questionnaire format (as matrix interactions).for analyze the research have been used MicMac software and scenario wizard.according to MicMac Pro results were identified 8 key influencing factors were identified The results of the research show that among the developed scenarios, province planning is face with 8 Strong Consistency scenarios, 124 weak Consistency scenarios and 121 Max. inconsistency scenarios in the future. Out of the 8 possible scenarios, Scenario 8 have a favorable statu, three scenarios have interstitial status and 4 scenarios are in an unfavorable situation. Scenario 8 is the best most likely scenario ahead of the province and all of its Uncertainty are quite desirable.

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