پیش بینی کوتاه مدت سرعت باد با استفاده از الگوریتم های یادگیری ماشین

محورهای موضوعی : مهندسی برق قدرت

حمیدرضا صفا ¹ , علی اصغر قدیمی ²

1 - گروه مهندسی برق، دانشکده مهندسی، دانشگاه اراک، اراک، ایران
2 - گروه مهندسی برق، دانشکده مهندسی، دانشگاه اراک، اراک، ایران

تاریخ دریافت : 1403/04/02 تاریخ پذیرش : 1403/05/20 تاریخ انتشار : 1404/09/30

کلید واژه: پیش‌بینی سرعت باد, تجزیه حالت متغیر, شبکه های عصبی مصنوعی,

چکیده مقاله :

تقاضای انرژی الکتریکی با توسعه صنعت به‌شدت افزایش یافته است، اما تأمین آن از سوخت‌های فسیلی مشکلاتی مانند گرمایش زمین و آلودگی محیط زیست را به دنبال دارد. با توجه به محدودیت و کاهش منابع فسیلی، یافتن جایگزین‌های پایدار ضروری است. در این میان، انرژی باد به دلیل هزینه کم و عدم تولید آلودگی، به عنوان یک منبع تجدیدپذیر مناسب برای تأمین انرژی الکتریکی مطرح می‌شود. با این حال، برای دستیابی به توان پایدار از نیروگاه‌های بادی، لازم است اطلاعات دقیقی از سرعت باد در آینده در دسترس باشد. پیش‌بینی سرعت باد به دلیل ماهیت تصادفی و متناوب آن بسیار دشوار است، در این مقاله، برای مقابله با این چالش و دستیابی به پیش‌بینی دقیق، از مدل ترکیبی شامل شبکه عصبی کانولوشنال موقتی و بازگشتی دوطرفه (TCN-BiLSTM) استفاده شده است. ابتدا، هایپرپارامترهای الگوریتم تجزیه حالت متغیر ، با استفاده از روش قدرتمند Optuna بهینه‌سازی شده‌اند. در مرحله بعد، داده‌های اصلی سرعت باد برای بهبود عملکرد مدل ترکیبی (TCN_BiLSTM) نرمالیزه شده و به الگوریتم تجزیه حالت متغیر داده شده‌اند تا به توابع مد ذاتي(IMF)  تجزیه شوند. سپس هر IMFبه ‌صورت جداگانه به مدل ترکیبی برای پیش‌بینی داده می‌شود. درآخر در نهایت، خروجی‌ها از حالت نرمال‌سازی خارج و ترکیب شده‌اند تا نتیجه نهایی به‌دست آید. با توجه به ارزیابی مدل ترکیبی با معیارهای آماری، نتایج نشان می‌دهد که مدل پیشنهادی دقت بالایی دارد. در این ارزیابی، ضریب تعیین برابر با 99.1٪، میانگین خطای مطلق برابر با 0.36 و ریشه میانگین مربعات خطا  برابر با 0.48 به‌دست آمده است.

چکیده انگلیسی:

The demand for electrical energy has sharply increased with the development of industry. However, supplying this demand through fossil fuels leads to problems such as global warming and environmental pollution. Considering the limitations and depletion of fossil fuel resources, finding sustainable alternatives has become essential. Among these alternatives, wind energy stands out as a viable renewable source for electricity generation due to its low cost and lack of pollution. However, to achieve stable power generation from wind farms, accurate information about future wind speed is essential. Predicting wind speed is highly challenging due to its random and intermittent nature. In this paper, a hybrid model combining a Temporal Convolutional Network and Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (TCN-BiLSTM) is employed to address this challenge and achieve accurate predictions. First, the hyperparameters of the Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD) algorithm were optimized using the powerful Optuna method. Next, the original wind speed data were normalized to enhance the performance of the hybrid model (TCN-BiLSTM) and then fed into the VMD algorithm to be decomposed into Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs). Each IMF is then individually fed into the hybrid model for prediction. Finally, the outputs are denormalized and combined to obtain the final result. Based on the evaluation of the hybrid model using statistical metrics, the results indicate that the proposed model achieves high accuracy. In this evaluation, the coefficient of determination (R²), mean absolute error (MAE), and root mean square error (RMSE) were found to be 99.1%, 0.36, and 0.48, respectively.

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