تاثیر اقلیم در پیش بینی منحنی تولید شیر گاو با شبکه عصبی مصنوعی

محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه زیست شناسی جانوری

نیلوفر راستی دوست ¹ , ناصر امام جمعه کاشان ² , سونیا زکی زاده ³ , علی اصغر صادقی ⁴ , رضا عزیزی نژاد ⁵

1 - گروه علوم دامی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران
2 - گروه علوم دامی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران
3 - موسسه تحقیقات علوم دامی کشور، سازمان تحقیقات، آموزش و ترویح کشاورزی، کرج، ایران
4 - گروه علوم دامی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران
5 - گروه علوم دامی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران

تاریخ دریافت : 1403/05/12 تاریخ پذیرش : 1403/06/15 تاریخ انتشار : 1403/10/23

کلید واژه: شیر, شبکه عصبی, منحنی شیر, اقلیم, روز آزمون,

چکیده مقاله :

هدف پژوهش حاضر بررسی تاثیر تغییرات اقلیم بر منحنی تولید شیر و درصد چربی و میزان تغییرات شیر گاوهای هلشتاین در اقلیم‌های گوناگون از هفت استان می‌باشد. بدین منظور از 70000 رکورد روزآزمون مربوط به 22471 راس گاو هلشتاین طی سال های 1380 تا 1395 گردآوری شده بودند استفاده شد. با استفاده از داده های نزدیکترین ایستگاه سینوپتیک شاخص رطوبت دما اقلیمی با استفاده از دما و رطوبت نسبی هوا محاسبه و مقایسه شد. بدلیل امکان اثر گذاری بیشتر دوره‌های طولانی تر تنش گرمایی نسبت به دوره‌های کوتاه تر،  میانگین اطلاعات هواشناسی دوره­های 1، 2 و 3 روزه نیز محاسبه شدند. بطور کلی تغییرات ناشی از اقلیم گوناگون از طریق شبکه­سازی مصنوعی با استفاده از نرم­افزار نوروسلوشن محاسبه شد. نکویی برازش­ها با استفاده از آماره­های ضریب همبستگی r و میانگین مربعات خطای مدل MSE تعیین شد. بر اساس نتایج با داشتن شاخص رطوبت دما به عنوان بهترین معیار جهت بررسی شرایط اقلیمی منطقه مورد مطالعه تعیین گردید. همچنین مشاهده شد که متوسط دما رطوبت نسبی دو روز قبل از رکوردگیری می‌تواند سهم بیشتری از تغییرات عملکرد تولیدی را نسبت به تنها در روز رکوردگیری توضیح دهد. نتایج این تحقیق نشان داد افزایش مقدارTHI  باعث کاهش تولید شیر و افزایش درصدچربی شیر می‌شود.

چکیده انگلیسی:

The aim of the current research is to investigate the effect of climate change on the milk production curve and fat percentage and fat percentage and the rate of milk changes of Holstein cows in different climates from seven provinces. For this purpose, 70,000 test day records related to 22,471 Holstein cows were collected during the years 2001 to 2016. Using data from the nearest synoptic station, the climate temperature humidity index was calculated and compared using temperature and relative humidity. Due to the possibility of greater impact of longer periods of heat stress compared to shorter periods, the average of 1, 2 and 3 day were also calculated. In general, the changes caused by different climates were calculated through artificial networking using Neurosolution software. In general, the changes caused by different climates were calculated through artificial networking using Neurosolution software. The goodness of fit was determined using the coefficient of explanation r and the mean square error of the MSE model. Based on the results, the temperature humidity index (THI) was determined as the best criterion to investigate the climatic conditions of the studied area. Based on the results, the humidity and temperature index was determined as the best criterion to investigate the climatic conditions of the studied area. It has also been observed that the average temperature and relative humidity 2 days before recording can explain a greater share of the changes in production performance than on the day of recording alone. The results of this study showed that increasing the THI value reduced milk production and increased milk fat percentage.

 

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