ارزیابی مسیرهای سازگاری با تغییر اقلیم در حوضه آبریز کارون 3
محورهای موضوعی : آبخیزداری و استحصال آب
اریسا جهانگیری
1
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بهارک معتمدوزیری
2
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هادی کیادلیری
3
1 - دانشجوي دکتري گروه مهندسي طبيعت، دانشکده منابع طبيعي و محيط زيست، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامي، واحد علوم و تحقيقات، تهران، ايران.
2 - دانشيار گروه مهندسي طبيعت، دانشکده منابع طبيعي و محيط زيست، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامي، واحد علوم و تحقيقات، تهران، ايران.
3 - دانشيار گروه علوم محيط زيست و جنگل، دانشکده منابع طبيعي و محيط زيست، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامي، واحد علوم و تحقيقات، تهران، ايران.
کلید واژه: تغيير اقليم, مدل WEAP, تصميم گيري استوار, رواناب, کارون,
چکیده مقاله :
زمينه و هدف: برنامه ريزي تطبيقي و تخصيص آب در شرايط تغيير اقليم به دليل عدم قطعيت هاي مختلف با چالش هاي عميقي مواجه است. در اين شرايط تصميماتي بايد اتخاذ شوند که از استواري بيشتري برخوردار باشند و در سناريوهاي مختلف اقليمي همچنان کارکرد خود را حفظ نمايند. اين مطالعه با هدف برنامه ريزي اقدامات سازگاري کشاورزي در شرايط عدم قطعيت اقليمي در حوضه آبريز کارون 3 با استفاده از رويکرد تصميم گيري استوار (RDM) انجام شد. براي تحقق اين هدف، از مدل هاي GCM تحت دو سناريوي انتشار (RCP4.5 و RCP8.5) و مدل WEAP براي شبيه سازي وضعيت موجود منابع و مصارف آب حوضه استفاده شد. رواناب و سطح زير کشت به عنوان پارامترهاي داراي عدم قطعيت در نظر گرفته شدند.
روش پژوهش: براي تحقق هدف تحقيق، از مدل WEAP براي شبيه سازي وضعيت موجود منابع و مصارف آب حوضه استفاده شد. از آنجا که تحت اثر تغيير اقليم پارامترهاي بارش و دما محدوده در آينده دستخوش تغييرات مي گردد از سه مدل EC-EARTH، CNRM-CM5 و GFDL-ESM2M تحت دو سناريو RCP4.5 و RCP8.5 براي بررسي ميزان تغييرات دما و بارش دوره آتي استفاده شد. همچنين در اين پژوهش براي شبيه سازي رواناب دوره آتي رودخانه کارون از مدل بارش-رواناب IHACRES استفاده شد. اقداماتي همچون افزايش 10 درصدي راندمان آبياري (S1) و تغيير الگوي کشت (S2) به عنوان اقدامات سازگاري موثر در بخش کشاورزي در نظر گرفته شد. در نهايت با استفاده از رويکرد تصميم گيري استوار (RDM) استحکام راهبردهاي ارائه شده تحت عدم قطعيت هاي موجود براي دوره آتي مورد بررسي و ارزيابي قرار گرفت. RDM بر اساس دو رويکرد اثر عدم قطعيت را به مينيمم ترين حالت ممکن مي رساند. رويکرد پشيماني (Regret Method) که با مينيمم کردن ميزان انحرافات در عملکردهاي ناشي از عدم قطعيت در مقايسه با حالت ايده آل به دست مي آيد و رويکرد استحکام و يا مرز رضايتمندي که محاسبه کسري از سناريوهايي که معيارهاي طراحي شده را برآورده مي کنند به دست مي آيد.
يافته‌ها: نتايج شبيه سازي رواناب دوره آتي (2030-2055) نشان مي دهد ميزان رواناب رودخانه کارون به نسبت دوره پايه کاهش 8-22 درصدي را در ماه هاي مختلف خواهد داشت. ارزيابي نتايج شبيه سازي مدل WEAP در وضعيت موجود نياز شرب تقريبا در اکثر بخش ها به صورت کامل تامين مي گردد و تنها در بخش هاي A8 يا همان محدوده مطالعاتي 2301 (خرمشهر) و A6 (محدوده هاي مطالعاتي لالي و انديکا) با کمبود آب مواجه هستند. همچنين نتايج نشان داد که در بخش صنعت کمبودي مشاهده نمي شود. در اين ميان بخش هاي A1، A2 و A3 با کمبود منابع آب در بخش کشاورزي روبه رو هستند. نتايج نشان مي دهد با توجه به کمبودها در شرايط موجود، حوضه آبريز بهشت آباد پتانسيل لازم براي انتقال آب به حجم 580 ميليون متر مکعب در سال توسط تونل بهشت آباد به حوضه آبريز زاينده رود را نخواهد داشت. همچنين نتايج نشان داد شاخص رضايت مندي استراتژي 2 و استراتژي 1 به ترتيب 0.78 و 0.65 مي باشد. همچنين مقايسه نتايج شاخص پشيماني نشان مي دهد استراتژي 2 استحکام بالاتري به نسبت استراتژي 1 دارد.
نتايج: در نهايت براساس رويكرد تحقيق و تعريفي كه از تصميم گيري استوار ارائه شد، نتايج نشان داد كه استراتژي تغيير الگوي کشت مي توانند به عنوان راهبردي استوار در دستور كار قرار گيرند، بطوريكه توانسته در طيف وسيعي از شرايط عدم قطعيت و سناريوهاي اقليمي عملكرد خود را در حدود وضع موجود حوضه حفظ نمايد. نقطه قوت اصلي اين مطالعه روش شناسي نظامند آن است که به تصميم گيري آگاهانه تر و طراحي برنامه هاي تطبيقي جامع کمک مي کند. همچنين با در نظر گرفتن اهداف و شاخص هاي مختلف مي تواند براي ساير حوضه ها نيز قابل اجرا باشد. با اين حال، مطالعات آينده در مورد عدم قطعيت هاي تغييرات آب و هوا و ارزيابي اجتماعي-اقتصادي اقدامات سازگاري، حوزه هاي ديگري هستند که مي توانند تحليل ها را بهبود بخشند.
Background and Aim: Adaptive planning and water allocation in the conditions of climate change is facing deep challenges due to various uncertainties. In this situation, decisions should be made that are more stable and maintain their function in different climatic scenarios. This study was carried out with the aim of planning agricultural adaptation measures in the conditions of climatic uncertainty in the Karun 3 watershed using the robust decision-making (RDM) approach. To achieve this goal, GCM models under two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) and WEAP model were used to simulate the current situation of water resources and uses in the basin. Runoff and cultivated area were considered as parameters with uncertainty.
Method: To realize the research goal, the WEAP model was used to simulate the current situation of the basin's water resources and uses. Because under the effect of climate change, the precipitation and temperature parameters of the area will undergo changes in the future from three models - EC-EARTH, CNRM-CM5 and GFDL-ESM2M under two scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 to investigate the amount of temperature changes and future period precipitation was used. Also, in this research, the IHACRES rainfall-runoff model was used to simulate the runoff of the Karun River in the future. Measures such as 10% increase in irrigation efficiency (S1) and changing the cultivation pattern (S2) were considered as effective adaptation measures in the agricultural sector. Finally, by using the robust decision-making approach (RDM), the strength of the presented strategies under the existing uncertainties for the future period was examined and evaluated. Based on two approaches, RDM minimizes the effect of uncertainty. The Regret Method, which is obtained by minimizing the amount of deviations in performance caused by uncertainty compared to the ideal state, and the robustness approach or the satisfactory boundary, which calculates the fraction of scenarios that meet the designed criteria.
Results: The results of runoff simulation for the future period (2055-2030) show that the amount of Karun river runoff will decrease by 22-8% in different months compared to the base period. Evaluation of the simulation results of the WEAP model in the current situation, the drinking water needs are almost completely provided in most of the sectors and only in the A8 sectors, which is the study area of 2301 (Khorramshahr) and A6 (the study areas of Lali and Indica). ) are facing water shortage. Also, the results showed that there is no shortage in the industry sector. Meanwhile, sectors A1, A2 and A3 are facing a shortage of water resources in the agricultural sector. The results show that due to the deficiencies in the existing conditions, the Behesht Abad watershed will not have the necessary potential to transfer water to the volume of 580 million cubic meters per year through the Behesht Abad tunnel to the Zayandeh Rood watershed. Also, the results showed that the satisfaction index of strategy 2 and strategy 1 is 0.78 and 0.65, respectively. Also, the comparison of the results of the regret index shows that strategy 2 is stronger than strategy 1.
Conclusion: Finally, based on the research approach and the definition of stable decision-making, the results showed that the strategy of changing the cultivation pattern can be put on the agenda as a stable strategy, so that it can work in a wide range of uncertainty and climate scenarios. Maintain within the current status of the basin. The main strength of this study is its systematic methodology, which helps to make more informed decisions and design comprehensive adaptive programs. It can also be applicable to other basins by considering different goals and indicators. However, future studies on climate change uncertainties and socio-economic evaluation of adaptation measures are other areas that could improve the analyses.
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