بررسی تأثیر اپیدمی ویروس کرونا بر روی شاخص سهام کشورهای حوزه‌ی خاورمیانه با رویکرد Panel ARDL
محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه تحلیل بازار سرمایه
1 - دانشگاه آزاد شیراز
کلید واژه: ترس از COVID-19, بازار سهام جهانی, کرونا ویروس, پانل ARDL,
چکیده مقاله :
ویروس کرونا یک بحران بهداشتی را به یک بحران اقتصادی تبدیل کرده است و شیوع آن منجر به واکنش‌های منفی شدیدی از سوی بازارهای بورس سهام در کشورهای مختلف و همچنین نوسانات قیمت بسیاری از متغیرهای کلان اقتصادی شده است،از طرفی گسترش ویروس زمینه ای را جهت بررسی تأثیرات شیوع آن بر بازارهای بورس سهام و متغیرهای اقتصادی و همچنین قدرت اثرگذاری و سرعت پخش اطلاعات در زمان بحران در این بازارها را فراهم می‌کند.هدف پژوهش حاضر بررسی تأثیر اپیدمی بیماری کرونا بر روی بازارهای سهام در کشورهای حوزه خاورمیانه در دو بازه‌ی زمانی مختلف و مقایسه‌ی آن‌ها با یکدیگر می‌باشد.نتایج نشان می‌دهد در دوره‌ی زمانی اول رابطه کوتاه‌مدتی میان متغیرها برقرار بوده و ویروس کرونا تأثیر منفی و معناداری بر روی شاخص سهام داشته است،با اجرای سیاست‌های فاصله‌گذاری اجتماعی و قرنطینه‌ای تأثیر منفی این ویروس در دوره‌ی دوم از بین رفته است و عملاً این ویروس باعث سقوط سهام کشورها نشده است.
The coronavirus has turned a health crisis into an economic crisis, and its outbreak has led to strong negative reactions by stock markets in different countries as well as price fluctuations of many macroeconomic variables. On the other hand, the spread of the virus provides a basis for investigating the effects of its spread on stock markets and economic variables as well as the power of influence and speed of dissemination of information in these markets during the crisis. This study aims to investigate the effect of the Coronavirus epidemic on stock markets in Middle Eastern countries in two different periods and compare them with each other. The results show that in the first period, there was a short-term relationship between variables and the coronavirus had a negative and significant effect on the stock index, with the implementation of social distancing policies and quarantine the negative impact of the virus during the period the second one is gone, and the virus hasn't caused the country's stocks to fall.
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