ادراک ریسک، سوگیریهای رفتاری و تصمیم‌‌های سرمایهگذاری
محورهای موضوعی : پژوهش های مالی و رفتاری در حسابداری
هانیه جابری
1
(
گروه حسابداری، دانشکده اقتصاد و حسابداری، دانشگاه رازی، کرمانشاه، ایران
)
سید جواد دلاوری
2
(
گروه حسابداری، دانشگاه رازی کرمانشاه، ایران
)
سامان محمدی
3
(
گروه حسابداری، دانشکده اقتصاد و کارآفرینی، دانشگاه رازی، کرمانشاه، ایران
)
کلید واژه: سوگیری رفتاری, تصمیم‌‌های سرمایهگذاری, اثر تمایل, رفتار گله‌ای, ادراک ریسک,
چکیده مقاله :
مالی رفتاری از جمله موضوعات کلیدی در حوزه مالی و اقتصاد است که جذابیت ویژه‌ای برای پژوهش‌های علمی دارد. یکی از عوامل تعیین‌کننده حرکات بازار، احساسات سرمایه‌گذاران است. در این زمینه مطالعه نقش سوگیریهای رفتاری در شکل دادن به تصمیم‌‌های سرمایه‌گذاران و تاثیر آن بر کارایی بازار حائز اهمیت است. پژوهش حاضر به دنبال یافتن تاثیر مهم‌ترین سوگیریهای رفتاری شامل اثر تمایل و رفتار گله‌ای با در نظر گرفتن عامل ادراک ریسک بر تصمیم‌‌های سرمایه‌گذاران است. داده‌های این پژوهش از طریق پرسشنامه که بین 384 سرمایه‌گذار بازار بورس توزیع شد جمع‌آوری شد، همچنین برای تحلیل داده‌ها از روش حداقل مربعات جزئی (PLS) استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که اثر تمایل، رفتار گله‌ای و ادراک ریسک بر تصمیم‌‌های سرمایهگذاری تاثیر مثبت و معناداری دارد. همچنین، رابطه منفی و معناداری بین اثر تمایل و ادراک ریسک وجود دارد، در نهایت مشخص شد که رفتار گله‌ای نیز بر ادراک ریسک تأثیر معناداری دارد. به طور کلی، این نتایج تأکید می‌کند که عوامل رفتاری و ادراکی تاثیر مهمی بر تصمیم‌‌های سرمایهگذاری دارد و این نکته می‌تواند در تحلیل و پیش‌بینی رفتارهای مالی و سرمایهگذاری به کار گرفته شود.
Behavioral finance is one of the key topics in the field of finance and economics, which has a special attraction for scientific research. One of the determining factors of market movements is the sentiments of investors. In this context, it is important to study the role of behavioral biases in shaping investors' decisions and its impact on market efficiency. The current research seeks to find the effect of the most important behavioral biases, the effect of tendency and herd behavior, considering the factor of risk perception on investors' decisions. The data of this research was collected through a questionnaire that was distributed among 384 stock market investors, also partial least square (PLS) method was used to analyze the data. The results showed that the effect of desire, herd behavior and risk perception have a positive and significant effect on investment decisions. Also, there is a negative and significant relationship between the effect of willingness and risk perception, finally it was found that herd behavior also has a significant effect on risk perception. In general, these results emphasize that behavioral and cognitive factors have an important impact on investment decisions.
Abul, S. J. (2019). Factors influencing individual investor behaviour: Evidence from the Kuwait stock exchange. Asian Social Science, 15(3), 27–39.
Afriany, A. putranti, L. Herdiany, H. Tisya, V. (2023). Covid 19: Investment Decisions of Individual Investor Based on Behavioral Finance Factors. ASSEHR, 69, 89–101.
Ahmed, Z,. Rasool S,. Saleem Q,. Ali Khan, M, and Kanwal, S. (2022). Mediating Role of Risk Perception Between Behavioral Biases and Investor’s Investment Decisions. SAGE Open, 1–18.
Ali, M. A., Rehman, K., Maqbool, A., & Hussain, S. (2021). The impact of behavioral finance factors and the mediating effect of investment behavior on individual’s financial well-being: Empirical evidence from Pakistan. Journal of Accounting and Finance in Emerging Economies, 7(2), 325–336.
Almansour, B. Y. Arabyat, Y. A. (2017). Investment decision making among gulf investors: Behavioural finance perspective. Journal of International Management Studies, 24(1), 41–71.
Aurengzeb, A. (2022). Examining the link between behavioral finance and portfolio management considering disposition effect as mediating role: Empirical evidence from Pakistan iKSP. Journal of Business and Economics, 2(2), 15–24.
Awais, M., Laber, M. F. Rasheed, N. & Khursheed, A. (2016). Impact of financial literacy and investment experience on risk tolerance and investment decisions: Empirical evidence from Pakistan. International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, 6(1), 73–79.
Baddeley, M. Burke, C.Schultz, W. Tobler, T. (2010). Impacts of personality on herding in financial decision making (Cambridge Working Papers in Economics). Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
Barber, B.M., & Odean, T. )2008(. All that glitters: the effect of attention and news on the buying behaviour of individual and institutional investors. The Review of Financial Studies, 21(2): 785-818.
Barber, B. M., & Odean, T. (2001). Boys will be boys: Gender, overconfidence, and common stock investment. The quarterly journal of economics, 116(1), 261-292.
Bekiros, S., Jlassi, M. Lucey, B., Naoui, K., & Uddin, G. S. (2017). Herding behavior, market sentiment and volatility: Will the bubble resume?. The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 42(1), 107–131.
Bergset, L. )2015(. The rationality and irrationality of financing green start-ups. Administrative Sciences, 5: 260-285.
Bhatia, A., Chandani, A., Chhateja, J. (2020). Robo advisory and its potential in addressing the behavioral biases of investors— A qualitative study in Indian context. Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, 25, 1–9.
Boda, J,. R Sunitha, G. (2018). Investor’s psychology in investment decision making: A behavioral finance approach. International Journal of Pure and Applied Mathematics, 119(7), 1253–1261.
Braha, D. (2012). Global civil unrest:Contagion, self-organization, and prediction. PLoS One, 7(10), e48596.
Chen, S. & Tsai, C. )2010(. Investment Preference, Risk Perception and Portfolio Choices under Different Socio-Economic Status. Department of Finance, Nan Hua University, Chiayi, Taiwan.
Combrink, S., & Lew, C. (2020). Potential underdog bias, overconfidence and risk propensity in investor decision-making behavior. Journal of Behavioral Finance, 21(4), 337–351.
Davari Aired Musa, Samia. Najafi, M., Momeni, M. (2022). Modeling herd behavior and investors' decisions with the mediating role of investor emotions. Quarterly journal of new research approaches in management and accounting. 6 (84)., 822-802. (In Persian).
Dominic, C., Gupta, A. (2020). Psychological factors affecting investors decision making. Journal of Xi’an University of Architecture and Technology, 7(6), 169–181.
Fromlet, H. )2001(. Behavioural finance theory and practical application: systematic analysis of departures from the homo economicus paradigm are essential for realistic financial research and analysis. Business Economics, 36(3): 63-69.
Keyvan, N. (2022). The effect of investors' behavioral patterns in explaining the added value created based on the volume of transactions in investment funds. Stock Exchange Quarterly, 16th year, number 62, 25-52. (In Persian).
Hallahan, T. A., Faff, R. W. and McKenzie, M. D. )2004(. An Empirical Investigation of Personal Financial Risk Tolerance. Financial Services Review, 13(1), 57-78.
Hamid, F. S., Rangel, G. J., Taib, F. M., & Thurasamy, R. (2013). The relationship between risk propensity, risk perception and risk-taking behaviour in an emerging market. International Journal of Banking and Finance, 10(1), 134-146.
Holzmeister, F., Huber, J., Kirchler, M., Lindner, F., Weitzel, U., & Zeisberger, S. (2020). What drives risk perception? A global survey with financial professionals and Lay people. Management Science, 66(9), 20-40.
Huang, T. C. Wu, C. C. Lin, B. H. (2016). Institutional herding and risk–return relationship. Journal of Business Research, 69(6), 2073–2080.
Jain, J., Walia, N., Singla, H., Singh, S., Sood, K., & Grima, S. (2023). Heuristic Biases as Mental Shortcuts to Investment Decision-Making: A Mediation Analysis of Risk Perception. Risks, 11(4), 72.
Jamshidi, N. ghalibaf Asl, H (2019). Analysis of the trading behavior of real and institutional investors of the stock exchange from the perspective of behavioral biases and factors affecting it. Financial knowledge of securities analysis. 13 (46), 178-159. (In Persian).
Kim, K., & Ryu, D. (2021). Does sentiment determine investor trading behaviour?. Applied Economics Letters, 28(10), 811-816.
Kudryavtsev, A., Cohen, G., & Hon-Snir, S. (2013). 'Rational'or'Intuitive': Are behavioral biases correlated across stock market investors?. Contemporary economics, 7(2), 31-53.
Landberg, W. (2003). Fear, greed and madness of markets. Journal of Accountancy, 195(4), 79–82.
Lari Semnani, B. (2018). Investigating the effect of mental states on the risk-taking of Tehran Stock Exchange investors. Asset management and financing, (1) 3, 107-120. (In Persian).
Mashaikh, Sh., Bahirai, l. (2019). Identification and ranking of decision-making criteria, risk-aversion and behavioral biases of investors in Tehran Stock Exchange. Quarterly Journal of New Researches in Accounting and Auditing, (3), 1, 115-139. (In Persian).
Monne, J., Louche, C.Villa, C. (2016). Rational herding toward the poor: Evidence from location decisions of microfinance institutions within Pakistan. World Development, 84, 266–281.
Mousavi Shiri, SM., Karimi, Z., ghadrdan, e. (2022). Investigating the mass behavior of investors in the Tehran stock exchange market: evidence of interest rate and exchange rate fluctuations. Stock Exchange Quarterly, 15, (59), 25-50. (In Persian).
Muermann, A., & Volkman Wise, J. (2006). Regret, pride, and the disposition effect. Available at SSRN 930675. Muller, S. L. (2015). The impact of internal behavioural decision-making biases on South African collective investment scheme performance (Doctoral dissertation, Rhodes University).
Nofsinger, J. R. (2017). The psychology of investing. Routledge.
Noussair, C. N., Trautmann, S. T., & Van de Kuilen, G. (2014). Higher order risk attitudes, demographics, and financial decisions. Review of Economic Studies, 81(1), 325-355.
Park, H., & Sohn, W. (2013). Behavioral Finance: A Survey of the Literature and Recent Development. Seoul Journal of Business, 19(1).
Pelster, M., Hofmann, A. (2018). About the fear of reputational loss: Social trading and the disposition effect. Journal of Banking & Finance,) 94(, 75–88.
Ploner, M. (2017). Hold on to it? An experimental analysis of the disposition effect. Judgment and Decision Making, 12(2), 118–127.
Raheja, S., & Dhiman, B. (2019). Relationship between behavioral biases and investment decisions: The mediating role of risk tolerance. DLSU Business & Economics Review, 29(1), 31–39.
Ross, S. A., Westerfield, R. W., Jaffe, J. F., & Jordan, B. D. (2016). Corporate Finance, 11th Edn Toronto. ONT: Mcgraw Hill.[Google Scholar].
Sabir, S. A., Mohammad, H. B., & Shahar, H. B. K. (2018). The effect of illusion of control and self attribution on herding behaviour with a moderating role of information availability: a case of retail investors of pakistan stock exchange. Opción, 34(86), 16.
Saif Elahi, R., Kordloi, H,. Dashti, N. (2015). Comparative study of behavioral factors in investing financial assets. Scientific Research Quarterly Journal of Investment Knowledge,4, (15), 52-33. (In Persian).
Sewell, M. (2011). History of the efficient market hypothesis. Rn, 11(04), 04.
Shah, S. Z. A., & Ahmad, M. (2019). Entrepreneurial orientation and performance of small and medium-sized enterprises: Mediating effects of differentiation strategy. Competitiveness Review: An International Business Journal, 29(5), 551-572.
Shefrin, H. (2002). Beyond greed and fear: Understanding behavioral finance and the psychology of investing. Oxford University Press.
Shefrin, H. (2015). The behavioural paradigm shift. RAE, 55(1): 95-98. DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1590/Soo34-759020150109.
Shirazian, Zahra. (2018). Investigating the effects of analysts' herding behaviors on the stock prices of companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange using network analysis. Scientific Research Quarterly Journal of Investment Knowledge. (1)29, 19-36. (In Persian).
Shukla, A., Rushdi, D. N. J., & Katiyar, D. R. C. (2020). Impact of behavioral biases on investment decisions ‘a systematic review’. International Journal of Management, 11(4).
Simon, H. (2000). Theories of Bounded Rationality. Central Currents in Social Theory: The Roots of Sociological Theory, 1700-1920.
