تأثیر سیاست تقسیم سود سهام بر ثبات مالی بانک‌های ایران

محورهای موضوعی : اقتصاد سنجی مالی و روش‌های کمّی

سید یحیی اسدالهی ¹ (گروه حسابداری، واحد ملایر، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، ملایر، ایران.)
سمیه متین ² (گروه حسابداری، واحد ملایر، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، ملایر، ایران.)
مرضیه یوسفی نژاد ³ (گروه حسابداری، دانشگاه شیراز، شیراز، ایران.)

تاریخ دریافت : 1402/01/05 تاریخ پذیرش : 1402/03/18 تاریخ انتشار : 1402/04/01

کلید واژه: سود انباشته, ثبات مالی, سود سهام پرداختی,

چکیده مقاله :

هدف: پژوهش حاضر به بررسی تأثیر سیاست تقسیم سود سهام بر ثبات مالی بانک‌ها می‌پردازد. بدین منظور رابطه بین سیاست تقسیم سود سهام و ثبات سیاست تقسیم سود سهام با ثبات مالی بانک‌ها در بلندمدت و کوتاه‌مدت مورد آزمون قرار گرفت.روش‌شناسی پژوهش: در این پژوهش 23 بانک پذیرفته‌شده در بورس اوراق بهادار در فاصله بین سال‌های 1391 الی 1399 مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. داده‌های پژوهش از نوع داده‌های ترکیبی بوده و با به‌کارگیری روش برآورد مدل خودرگرسیون برداری به روش هم‌انباشتگی جوهانسون - جوسیلیوس و مدل تصحیح خطای برداری مورد تجزیه‌وتحلیل قرار گرفته است.یافته‌ها: نتایج پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که نسبت سود سهام پرداختی بر ثبات مالی بانک‌ها در بلندمدت تأثیر مثبت و معنی‌داری دارد و همچنین نسبت سود انباشته نیز بر ثبات مالی بانک‌ها در بلندمدت تأثیر منفی و معنی‌داری دارد و یافته‌ها نشان داد که ثبات در سیاست تقسیم سود سهام بر ثبات مالی بانک‌ها در بلندمدت تأثیر مثبت و معنی‌داری دارد.اصالت / ارزش‌افزوده علمی: نتایج حاصل از این پژوهش می‌تواند مدیران را در اتخاذ تصمیمات بهینه در خصوص تعیین میزان سود تقسیمی بهینه و اتخاذ سیاست‌های منطقی توزیع سود نقدی سهام با درنظرگرفتن اهمیت حفظ ثبات مالی بانک‌ها یاری رساند به‌طوری‌که امکان پیش‌بینی دقیق‌تر بازده آتی سهام را برای سهامداران و تحلیلگران مالی فراهم نماید.

چکیده انگلیسی:

Purpose: The present study examines the effect of dividend policy on the financial stability of banks. For this purpose, the relationship between the dividend policy and the stability of the dividend policy with the financial stability of banks in the long and short term was tested. Methodology: In this research, 23 banks admitted to the Tehran stock exchange and over-the-counter stock exchange in the period between 2011 and 2019 were examined. The data of the research was collected with the approach of mixed data and using the estimation method of the vector autoregression model by the method of co-accumulation of Johansson-Josilius and the vector error correction model and it was statistically analyzed with the help of Eviews software.Findings: The results of the research show that the ratio of dividends paid has a positive and significant effect on the financial stability of banks in the long term, and the ratio of accumulated profits also has a negative and significant effect on the financial stability of banks in the long term, and the findings showed that stability in the distribution policy Dividends have a positive and significant effect on the financial stability of banks in the long term.Originality/scientific added value: The importance of the financial stability of banks in the monetary system has made it necessary to study the effect of profit sharing policies on the financial stability of banks. Dividends can have a great impact on the cost of capital, financial risks and the future price of banks' stocks.

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