طراحی مدل عارضه‌یابی استراتژیک سازمانی با استفاده از شاخص‌های مالی مبتنی بر چرخه عمر سازمانی
محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه اقتصاد محاسباتی
اباذر علایی بخش
1
(دانشجوی دکتری، گروه حسابداری، واحد تهران شمال، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.)
مهران متین فرد
2
(استادیار گروه حسابداری، واحد تهران شمال، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران.)
کلید واژه: استراتژی سازمانی, ثبات مالی, چرخه عمر, شاخص‌های مالی, عارضه‌یابی.,
چکیده مقاله :
هدف از انجام این مطالعه، طراحی مدل عارضه‌یابی استراتژیک سازمانی با استفاده از شاخص‌های مالی مبتنی بر چرخة عمر سازمانی بوده است. روش پژوهش، از نظر ماهیت و محتوا از نوع همبستگی است که با استفاده از داده‌های مستخرج از صورت‌های مالی شرکت‌های پذیرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران به تحلیل رابطه همبستگی می‌پردازد. جامعة آماری شامل کلیة شرکت‌های پذیرفته شده در بورس اوراق بهادار تهران طی سال‌های 13۹۵ تا 139۹ تشکیل می‌دهند که تعداد ۱۱۹ شرکت در تمام طول دوره تحقیق در بازار بورس فعال بوده و مورد مطالعه قرار گرفته‌اند. داده‌های تحقیق از صورت‌های مالی شرکت‌ها استخراج گردیده و با استفاده از مدل‌های رگرسیونی به روش داده‌های ترکیبی مورد تجزیه و تحلیل قرار گرفت. با توجه به نتایج به‌دست آمده در مدل‌های بدست آمده، برای بهینه کردن مدل و شناسایی شاخص‌های صحیح و استراتژیک در تاثیرگذاری شاخص‌های مالی بر روی ثبات مالی شرکت‌ها، متغیرهای اندازه شرکت و ارزش شرکت که در هر سه مدل غیر معنادار بوده از مدل حذف گردید. مدل نهایی بر اساس سایر شاخص‌های مالی که مبتنی بر چرخة عمر سازمانی شرکت‌ها استخراج شد که از این بین، متغیر اهرم مالی تاثیر مثبت و معناداری بر ثبات مالی شرکت‌ها داشته و متغیرهای بازده دارایی و نقدینگی شرکت تاثیر معکوس و معناداری داشته‌اند و بقیه متغیرها تاثیر معناداری نداشتند.
Extended Abstract Purpose The importance of the life cycle of organizations, especially financial and commercial organizations, is that these organizations have different characteristics at different stages of their life cycle; Therefore, one of the most important concerns of an economic and financial organization is to determine how to finance its investment and operational activities throughout its life cycle, in such a way that the efficiency and stability (reduction of risk) of the organization is maximized so that they can increase their organizational value in this way to improve as much as possible. Basically, economic enterprises have the main role of providing financial resources in developing countries. Also, these companies have a high debt-to-asset ratio due to customer investment. Due to the mentioned reasons, they are more affected by the regulations in such a way that they should have the ability to respond more to the rights of depositors, reduce their risk and ensure the stability of the payment system. In other words, every economic enterprise is looking for more financial stability and attracting investors. In the meantime, one of the most important economic organizations is the stock exchange organization. The stock exchange provides long-term capital for the main sectors of the economy, including business and government. Therefore, examining the organizational health and complications in the stock exchange organization and a model that can provide strategic organizational complications in such an important economic organization is highly necessary. Based on this goal, the main question of the current research is: "What indicators is the organizational strategic problem-solving model using financial indicators based on the organizational life cycle in Tehran Stock Exchange organization?" Methodology In this study, the research method is correlational (descriptive) in terms of its nature and content, which uses data extracted from the financial statements of companies admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange to analyze the correlation relationship. The approach of conducting this research will be done in the framework of deductive-inductive reasoning. Basically, the reason for using the correlation method is to discover the correlation between research variables. In this research, first the correlation between research variables will be tested and if the existence of correlation between variables is proven, multiple regression models will be estimated. On the other hand, since the current research is based on the analysis of past data and information (financial statements of companies admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange), it can be considered as a semi-experimental or post-event research. Also, the method of data analysis in the current research will be of the panel data type, and in terms of the purpose and method, it is considered to be of the applied and descriptive-correlation type, respectively. The statistical population also includes all the companies admitted to the Tehran Stock Exchange in the period of years 2016 to 2020, the final sample volume is determined using the systematic elimination method after applying the restrictions Finding According to the obtained results, the variables of company losses, company size, fixed assets, company value, and return on equity are not significant in the model, and the variable of financial leverage has a positive and significant effect, and the variables of return on assets and company liquidity have an inverse and significant effect in the model. Based on the goodness of fit indices of the model, it can be seen that the significance level of the F statistic of the analysis of variance is lower than the first type error of 0.05 and it indicates the significance of the estimated regression model. Also, the modified coefficient of determination of the model shows that 76.99% of the changes in the financial stability of the company are explained by the independent variables of this model. Also, the result of Durbin-Watson's statistical estimation in order to confirm the independence of the error components shows that this statistic is estimated with a value of 2.02. Since this value is between the experimental value of 1.5 and 2.5, the assumption of independence of error components can be accepted. According to the obtained results, the variables of company losses, company size, fixed assets, company value, and return on equity are not significant in the model, and the variable of financial leverage has a positive and significant effect, and the variables of assets return and company liquidity have an inverse and significant effect in the model. According to the obtained results, the variables of company size and value of the company are not significant in the model, and the variables of financial leverage, company losses and fixed assets have a positive and significant effect, and the variables of asset return, company liquidity and return on equity have an inverse and significant effect in the model. Have had. Therefore, according to the results obtained in the above models, in order to optimize the model and identify the correct and strategic indicators in the influence of financial indicators on the financial stability of companies, the variables of company size and company value, which were insignificant in all three models, were removed from the model and the model The final one is implemented based on other financial indicators that are extracted based on the organizational life cycle of the companies, which will be examined in the following of this model. Conclusion Paying attention to the results obtained in the above models in order to optimize the model and identify the correct and strategic indicators in the influence of financial indicators on the financial stability of companies, the variables of company size and company value, which were insignificant in all three models, were removed from the model and the final model was based on The basis of other financial indicators based on the organizational life cycle of companies was extracted. Of these, the variable of financial leverage had a positive and significant effect on the financial stability of companies, and the variables of asset return and company liquidity had an inverse and significant effect, and the rest of the variables did not have a significant effect. According to the obtained results, the indicators of financial leverage, return on assets and liquidity of companies can be presented as complications in companies, that companies can achieve financial stability and better performance by controlling these three indicators, and the lack of control of these three indicators causes the existence of There will be important complications in companies that may lead the company to bankruptcy.
