Achieving Consensus Deal with Methodological Issues in the Delphi Technique
محورهای موضوعی : Environmental policy and management
زهرا گودرزی
1
(
دانشجوی دکتری ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران
)
عنایت عباسی
2
(
استادیار گروه ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران
)
همایون فرهادیان
3
(
دکتری، گروه ترویج و آموزش کشاورزی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران
)
کلید واژه: Delphi Technique, Consensus level, Methodological criticism,
چکیده مقاله :
Delphi is a powerful technique used to seek answers to appropriate questions. The purpose of this paper is to provide an overview of the Delphi technique as a research method. This paper discusses the scientific merit of the Delphi technique by investigating on 41 studies of Journal of Agricultural Education from 1981 to 2013, and 2 studies of Journal of Agricultural Science and Technology. The results showed that there is no general agreement on using indexes in different rounds of Delphi technique; however, according to the frequencies of using indexes in different studies, the following suggestions are presented. The favourable number of panel of experts is between 10 to 20. Purposive sampling method is used for selecting the panel members. Usually a three rounds of Delphi method is used. One question is designed in round one. Mean and standard deviation indexes are used for passing from round two to round three and agreement level of 70 present is used for achieving expert's consensus in round three.
دلفی یک روش قدرتمند است که به دنبال پاسخ به سوالات مناسب است. هدف از این مقاله ارائه یک بازبینی کلی از روش دلفی به عنوان یک روش تحقیق است. این مقاله با بررسی 41 مورد مطالعات مجله آموزش کشاورزی در سالهای 1981 تا 2013 و 2 مطالعه مجله علم و صنعت کشاورزی، شایستگی علمی روش دلفی را مورد بررسی قرار می دهد. نتایج نشان داد که اجماع کلی در مورد استفاده از شاخص ها در دورهای (راندهای) مختلف روش دلفی وجود ندارد، اما توجه به فراوانی استفاده از این شاخص ها در مطالعات مختلف، تعداد کارشناسان پانل بین 10 تا 20 نفر، استفاده از روش نمونه گیری هدفمند برای انتخاب اعضای پانل، استفاده از دلفی با سه دور(راند)، طراحی یک سوال در دور (راند) اول، استفاده از شاخص های انحراف معیار و میانگین برای گذر از دور (راند) دوم به دور سوم و سطح اجماع 70 درصد در حال حاضر برای دستیابی به اجماع متخصص در دور سوم پیشنهاد شد.
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