Analysis of Factors Affecting Canola Plantation Development in Tabriz and Marand Counties, Iran
محورهای موضوعی : Farm Structures
قادر دشتی
1
(
دانشکده کشاورزی، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی؛ دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران
)
باب ا... حیاتی
2
(
دانشکده کشاورزی، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران
)
نوشین بخشی
3
(
دانشکده کشاورزی، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران
)
محمد قهرمانزاده
4
(
دانشکده کشاورزی، گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران
)
کلید واژه: Heckman two step procedure, Censored Model, Canola Adoption,
چکیده مقاله :
This study identifies and analyzes factors influencing canola plantation development in Tabriz and Marand Counties. The Censored Model was used to analyze cross-sectional data collected from 372 farmers using a questionnaire. Due to the weakness of the Tobit Model in separating factors affecting the adoption decision of farmers and factors affecting the rate of adoption, the Heckman Model was employed to separate the contributions made by these factors. The results of Estimated Probit Model in the first stage of the Heckman Approach showed that machinery ownership had an important effect on canola adoption, as a 1% increase in machinery ownership had led to 0.158% increase in canola adoption probability. Contact with extension agents, farm income proportion, education, and farmers’ experience influenced canola plantation probability positively, and the age and number of fragmentations had a negative impact on it. The significance of inverse Mill’s ratio indicates that the factors affecting the decision to start planting and the amount of canola plantation are not the same. The Heckman’s second step estimation results indicated that the loan amount, canola relative benefit, and family labor had a positive effect, and that machinery cost and farm distance from the road had a negative effect on canola acreage. Relative benefit was the most effective element, as 1% increase in relative benefit results in a 0.342% increase in canola plantation.
مطالعه حاضر با هدف شناساییو تحلیل عوامل موثر بر توسعه کشت کلزا در شهرستانهای تبریز و مرند انجام شده است. دادههای مقطعی 372 کشاورز توسط پرسشنامه جمعآوری و توسط مدل سانسورشده تحلیل گردید. به دلیل ضعف مدل توبیت در تفکیک عوامل موثر بر پذیرش و عوامل موثر بر میزان پذیرش، مدل هکمن برای تفکیک سهم هردسته از این عوامل به کار رفت. نتایج برآورد مدل پروبیت در مرحله اول روش هکمن نشان داد که مالکیت ماشینآلات تاثیر مهمی بر پذیرش کلزا داشت چنانچه با افزایش 1% مالکیت ماشینآلات، احتمال پذیرش کشت کلزا 158/0 درصد افزایش یافت. تماسبا مروجان، سهم درآمد مزرعهای، سطح تحصیلات و تجربه کشاورز اثر مثبت بر احتمال پذیرش کلزا داشته و سن و تعداد قطعات زمین زراعی هر کشاورز نیز اثر منفی بر احتمال کشت کلزا داشتند. معنیداری نسبت معکوس میلز نشان میدهد که عوامل موثر بر شروع به کشت با عوامل موثر بر میزان کشت کلزا یکی نیستند. نتایج تخمین مرحله دوم هکمن نشان داد که مبلغ وام، سود نسبی کلزا و تعداد نیروی کار خانوادگی اثر مثبت و هزینه ماشینآلات و فاصله زمین زراعی تا جاده در هر هکتار اثر منفی روی میزان سطح زیر کشت کلزا داشتند. سود نسبی موثرترین عامل بود به نحوی که 1% افزایش در سود نسبی منجر به 342/0 درصد افزایش در کشت کلزا میشد.
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