Factors Affecting Farmers’ Adaptation to Climate Change: A case of Wheat Farmers in Gachsaran, Iran
محورهای موضوعی : Environmental policy and management
1 - استادیارگروه مدیریت کشاورزی دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد گچساران
کلید واژه: Vulnerability, Climate Change, farmers, Adaptive capacity, Gachsaran County,
چکیده مقاله :
Climate change is one of the most important challenges that affect different parts of human life on the earth. Due to its very close relationship with natural resources and climatic conditions, the agricultural sector is the most affected by this change. Thus, this study aimed to identify the factors affecting the capacity of wheat farmers to adapt their careers to climate change in Gachsaran County, Iran. The research was an applied study in which field data were used in a descriptive-correlational and causal-correlation design to analyse the relationships of the variables. The research population was composed of 1845 wheat farmers working in Gachsaran. Using Cochran’s formula, 318 farmers were selected for the study through simple randomization. A questionnaire, which included personal and professional features, the factors affecting the farmers’ adaptation capacity, and the farmers’ perceptions of climate change, was developed by the researcher. An expert panel was used to address the validity of the developed questionnaire. Using Cronbach’s alpha, the reliability of the questionnaire was measured to be at the acceptable level of 0.72. The results of the multivariate regression showed that social capital, quality of life, the number of people aging over 60 in the family, the number of family members contributing to agriculture, income from agriculture, access to educational services, age, academic degree, total agricultural land, level of experience, and wheat yield per hectare accounted for the bulk of variance in the dependent variables (39.77%).
بخش کشاورزی ارتباط بسیار نزدیکی با شرایط آب و هوایی,دارد، بنابراین بیشتر تحت تأثیر تغییرات اقلیمی قرار می گیرد.هدف این تحقیق شناسایی عوامل مؤثر بر ظرفیت سازگاری گندمکاران گچساران می باشد. تحقیق حاضر از نظر هدف کاربردی و از لحاظ نحوه ی گردآوری داده ها میدانی و از نظر بررسی رابطه بین متغیرها از نوع توصیفی- همبستگی و علی-ارتباطی است. جامعه آماری تحقیق گندمکاران شهرستان گچساران به تعداد ۱۸۴۵ نفر می باشد. ۲۴۵نفر از جامعه ی آماری، با استفاده از فرمول شارل کوکران، به عنوان نمونه ی مورد مطالعه انتخاب گردیدند.برای گردآوری داده های مورد نیاز از روش نمونه گیری تصادفی ساده استفاده شده است. از جمله مزایای این روش این است که همه افراد شانس یکسانی برای انتخاب شدن دارند. جهت جمع آوری اطلاعات از پرسشنامه محقق ساخته استفاده گردید که شامل ویژگی های فردی و حرفه ای پاسخگویان، عوامل مؤثر بر ظرفیت سازگاری کشاورزان و ادراک کشاورزان از تغییرات اقلیمی بوده است. برای سنجش روایی پرسشنامه از گروه متخصصان و برای پایایی ابزار تحقیق از آلفای کرنباخ استفاده شد، که ضریب آلفای بدست آمده برای پرسشنامه۰/۷۲بدست آمد. به منظور تجزیه و تحلیل داده ها از روش های آمار توصیفی شامل میانگین، واریانس، انحراف معیار، فراوانی و درصد فراوانی و در آمار استنباطی از آزمون ضریب همبستگی اسپیرمن و رگرسیون چند متغیره استفاده گردید. نتایج حاصل از رگرسیون چند متغیره به روش تؤام نشان می دهد که متغیرهای سرمایه اجتماعی، کیفیت زندگی، تعداد اعضای بالای ۶۰ سال خانوار، تعداد اعضای مشارکت کننده در کارکشاورزی، درآمد حاصل از کشاورزی، بهره مندی از خدمات آموزشی و ترویجی، سن، سطح تحصیلات، کل زمین زراعی، میزان تجربه در کشاورزی و میزان عملکرد گندم در هکتار مجموعاً ۳۸/۸درصد از تغییرات متغیر وابسته را تبیین می کنند.
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