Effect of Temporary and Permanent Shocks of Total Factor Productivity on the Demand for Agricultural Imports in Iran
محورهای موضوعی : Decision-making
زهرا توکلی
1
(بخش اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان)
Sedigheh Nabieian
2
(Assistant Professor in Agricultural Economics, Faculty of Agriculture, ShahidBahonar University of Kerman)
محمدرضا زارع مهرجردی
3
(بخش اقتصاد کشاورزی دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان)
سید عبدالمجید جلایی
4
(بخش اقتصاد دانشگاه شهید باهنر کرمان)
کلید واژه: Total Factor Productivity in Agricultural Sector, Blanchard-Quah technique, Productivity shocks, Demand for agricultural imports,
چکیده مقاله :
Economic theories show that the direction and magnitude of the fluctuations of economic variables depend on the type and magnitude of the shocks they are faced with. Various reasons are noted for fluctuations in demands for imports, including productivity shocks. Accordingly, this research was aimed at identifying the effects of Total Factor Productivity (TFP) shocks of the agricultural sector on the demand for agricultural imports during the period 1982-2014. These shocks were divided by the Blanchard-Quah technique into two groups: permanent and temporary. Then, the effects of shocks on agricultural imports were studied by the Structural Vector Auto Regression (SVAR) Method. The results showed that, in the short and longrun, temporary and permanent TFP shocks of the agricultural sector have had a significant effect on the demand for agricultural imports, and the effect of temporary shocks was stronger than the effect of permanent ones. Therefore, if the policymakers seek to reduce the demand for agricultural imports, the agricultural TFP must continuously be incremented.
تئوری­های اقتصادی نشان می­دهند که، مسیر حرکت و اندازه نوسان متغیرهای اقتصادی بستگی به نوع و اندازه تکانه­های وارده به آن­ها دارد. برای نوسانات تقاضای واردات علل متفاوتی ذکر می­شود. از آن جمله می­توان به تکانه­های بهره­وری اشاره کرد. برهمین اساس، این پژوهش به دنبال شناسایی اثر تکانه­های بهره­وری کل عوامل تولید بخش کشاورزی بر واردات آن بخش طی دوره زمانی 1392-1360 بوده‌است. بدین منظور تکانه­های مذکور با استفاده از تکنیک بلانچارد-کوآ به دو گروه تکانه­های دائمی و تکانه­های موقتی تقسیم شدند. سپس با استفاده از روش­ خودرگرسیون برداری ساختاری (SVAR) اثر تکانه تکانه­ها برتقاضای واردات بخش کشاورزی مورد مطالعه قرار گرفت. نتایج نشان داد در کوتاه­مدت و بلندمدت تکانه­های موقتی و دائمی بهره­وری کل عوامل تولید بخش کشاورزی تأثیرمثبت و معنی­داری بر تقاضای واردات بخش کشاورزی می­گذارند و اثرگذاری تکانه­های موقت بیشتر از تکانه­های دائم می­باشد. لذا اگر هدف سیاست سیاست­گذاران کاهش تقاضای واردات بخش کشاورزی می­باشد باید بهره­وری کل عوامل تولید آن بخش افزایش یابد.
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