Developing Area Yield Crop Insurance under Alternative Parametric Methods: Case study for Wheat in East Azarbaijan Province, Iran
محورهای موضوعی : Farm Managementمحمد قهرمانزداه 1 , حسین راحلی 2 , طراوت عارف عشقی 3 , قادر دشتی 4
1 - داشنیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه تبریز
2 - داشنیار گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه تبریز
3 - دانشآموخته دکتری گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه تبریز
4 - استاد گروه اقتصاد کشاورزی، دانشگاه تبریز
کلید واژه: Wheat, parametric distribution, premium rate, Area-yield crop insurance,
چکیده مقاله :
In crop insurance design, the yield guarantee and the premium are very important parameters, both of which depend upon the yield distribution. Accordingly, the accurate modeling of yield distribution is essential for designing crop insurance contracts. This study employs historical county-level yield data for irrigated and dry wheat in East Azarbaijan Province, Iran for 1975-2013 to evaluate the effects of five alternative parametric distributions and generate the area yield crop insurance premiums. Results indicated that, in almost all cases, the premium rates with alternative distributions significantly differed from each other and that the beta distribution fitted the data the best except for some series for which the weibull distribution was the best. The results showed that premiums for wheat vary from 246,000 IRR per hectare in the coverage of 65% for Miyaneh to 460,000 IRR per hectare for Tabriz, and for dry wheat they vary from 265,000 IRR per hectare for Tabriz to 680,000 IRR per hectare for Maragheh. Moreover, it was found that the calculated premiums were less than traditional premiums, which would be affordable for both insured and insurers. The insured will pay lower premiums, and because the new methods are used to calculate the indemnities in this contract, and therefore there is no need for attending in individual farms to calculate the loss; it will be useful for the insurers, too.
در طراحی بیمه عملکرد منطقه ای، سطح تعهد و نرخ حق بیمه، پارامترهای بسیار مهمی هستند که هر دوی آنها بستگی به توزیع عملکرد محصول دارند. از اینرو، الگوسازی دقیق توزیع عملکرد برای طراحی قراردادهای بیمه محصول ضروری میباشد. این پژوهش با استفاده از داده های سری زمانی عملکرد گندم آبی و دیم در شهرستانهای استان آذربایجان شرقی، به بررسی اثرات پنج توزیع پارامتریک آلترناتیو و تعیین حق بیمه عملکرد منطقهای در دوره زمانی 1354 تا 1392 میپردازد. نتایج بدست آمده حاکی است که تقریباً در تمامی موارد، نرخهای حق بیمه برآورد شده با استفاده از توزیع های آلترناتیو، به طور معنی داری از یکدیگر متفاوتند و توزیع بتا به استثناء چند مورد که برای آنها توزیع ویبول توزیع مناسبتری است مناسبترین توزیع میباشد. بنا بر نتایج بدست آمده، مقادیر حق بیمه برای گندم آبی از 246000 ریال در هر هکتار در سطح پوشش 65 درصد برای شهرستان میانه تا 460000 ریال در هر هکتار برای شهرستان تبریز تغییر میکند و برای گندم دیم، مقدار حق بیمه از 265000 ریال برای شهرستان تبریز تا 860000 ریال در هر هکتار برای شهرستان مراغه متغیر است. افزون بر این نتایج حاکی است که حق بیمه های محاسبه شده مقادیر کمتری نسبت به حقبیمههای سنتی دارند که برای بیمه شونده و بیمه گر قابل اجرا میباشند چرا که بیمه شوندگان مبالغ حق بیمه کمتری را پرداخت مینمایند و از آنجا که در بیمه عملکرد منطقه ایی به منظور محاسبه غرامتها از روشهای جدیدی استفاده میشود که دیگر نیازی به حضور در مزارع برای محاسبات میزان خسارت وجود ندارد، برای بیمه گر نیز قابل استفاده است.
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