Bayesian Analysis of Spatial Probit Models in Wheat Waste Management Adoption
محورهای موضوعی : Farm Management
احمدرضا عمانی
1
(
دانشیار گروه ترویج کشاورزی واحد شوشتر، دانشگاه آزد اسلامی، شوشتر، ایران
)
آزاده نوراله نوری وندی
2
(
استادیار گروه ترویج کشاورزی واحد شوشتر، دانشگاه آزد اسلامی، شوشتر، ایران
)
کلید واژه: wheat waste management, spatial models, Bayesian model,
چکیده مقاله :
The purpose of this study was to identify factors influencing the adoption of wheat waste management by wheat farmers. The method used in this study using the spatial Probit models and Bayesian model was used to estimate the model. MATLAB software was used in this study. The data of 220 wheat farmers in Khouzestan Province based on random sampling were collected in winter 2016. To calculate Bayesian coefficients the Gibbs sampling and Metropolis–Hastingsalgorithm were used. A Lagrange Multiplier test for spatial error dependence [LM(err)] and a Lagrange Multiplier test for spatial lag dependence [LM(lag)] to extract the appropriate model were used.The results of both models were statistically significant with 99% probability. Thus, both models can be used in interpreting the results. Based on the results of the estimation of spatial models the variables of participation in extension courses, technical knowledge about management of waste, income, crop’s yield, mechanization level and the spatial autoregressive coefficient had significant role on adoption of waste management.
هدف از این مطالعه شناسایی عوامل مؤثر بر پذیرش مدیریت ضایعات گندم توسط گندمکاران بود. روش به کار گرفته شده در این تحقیق کاربرد مدل های پروبیت فضایی و تخمین مدل ها از طریق مدل بیزین بود. نرم افزار MATLAB در این تحقیق به کار گرفته شد. داده ها از بین 220 نفر گندمکار استان خوزستان از طریق روش نمونه گیری تصادفی انتخاب شد. برای محاسبه ضرایب بیزین از الگوریتم هیستینگ- متروپلیس و نمونه گیری گیپس استفاده شد. برای استخراج الگوی مناسب بر اساس تأخیر و خطای فضایی از آزمون لاگرانژ استفاده شد.بر اساس نتایج بدست آمده هر دو الگو با احتمال 99 درصد معنادار شدند. بنابراین، از هردو الگو میتوان در تفسیر نتایج استفاده کرد. بر اساس نتایج حاصل از برآورد الگوهای تأخیر فضایی و خطای فضایی مشخص شد که به ترتیب مشارکت در کلاس های ترویجی، دانش فنی، درآمد، عملکرد محصول، سطح مکانیزاسیون و ضرایب اتورگرسیو فضایی نقش معنی داری بر پذیرش مدیریت ضایعات گندم داشتند.
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