شناسایی مخاطرات انسانی تأثیرگذار بر آسیب پذیری شهر اردبیل با استفاده از روش حداقل مربعات جزئی (PLS)
محورهای موضوعی : مطالعات برنامه ریزی شهری و منطقه ایاصغر پاشازاده 1 , محمدحسن یزدانی 2 , علیرضا محمدی 3
1 - دانشجوی دکتری، جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران
2 - دانشیار، جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران
3 - استادیار، جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشگاه محقق اردبیلی، اردبیل، ایران
کلید واژه: آسیب پذیری, شهر اردبیل, معادلات ساختاری, مخاطرات انسانی, مدل حداقل مجذورات جزئی,
چکیده مقاله :
امروزه شهرها به طورگستردهدرمعرض انواعمختلفیازمخاطرات انسانیقرارگرفته اند که سببآسیب پذیری آن هاشدهاست، از این رو و در راستای تاب آور نمودن شهرها لازم است مخاطرات آنها شناسایی گردد و برای کاهش خطرات و پیش گیری از وقوع آنها برنامه ریزی شود. شهر اردبیل هم از این امر مستثنی نیست و دارای مخاطرات انسانی گوناگونی است. لذا هدف این مقاله شناسایی مهمترین مخاطرات انسانی تاثیرگذار بر آسیب پذیری شهر اردبیل است. روش تحقیق در مطالعه حاضر به لحاظ هدف کاربردی و به لحاظ ماهیت توصیفی- تحلیلی می باشد و روش جمع آوری داده ها و اطلاعات نیز اسنادی و میدانی (با استفاده از مصاحبه و پرسش نامه) است. جامعه آماری این تحقیق کارشناسان و اساتید مربوطه هستند، که از 200 نفر به روش هدفمند، پرسش نامه تکمیل شده است. به منظور تحلیل داده ها، آزمون فرضیه ها و ارائه مدل، از روش حداقل مربعات جزئی در نرم افزار smart- pls استفاده شده است. یافته های تحقیق نشان می دهد که تمامی 11متغیر تحقیق (مخاطرات انسانی) آسیب پذیری شهراردبیل را 781/0تبیین می کنند. بیشترین ضریب مسیر (تأثیرگذاری) به ترتیب برای متغیرهای مخاطرات اقتصادی، بیماری ها و تصادفات خیابانی به دست آمده است. همچنین یافته ها نشان می دهند که تمامی مخاطرات انسانی مورد بررسی در این پژوهش (جز آتش سوزی) بر آسیب پذیری شهر اردبیل تاثیر مثبت معناداری دارند. در نتیجه این پژوهش برای مدیران و برنامه ریزان شهری این حقیقت را روشن می سازد که آنها باید برنامه هایی برای پیشگیری این قبیل مخاطرات داشته باشند تا زمینه برای تاب آوری شهر مهیا گردد.
Nowadays, cities have been widely exposed to the various types of the human hazards and this instability has resulted in their vulnerability. Therefore, in order to make cities resilient, it is necessary to identify these hazards and plan to reduce them and prevent their occurrence. The city of Ardebil is not an exception in this regard and it has been exposed to a variety of these human hazards. With regard to these issues, the purpose of this study is to identify the most important human hazards which are deciding factors in Ardabil's vulnerability. According to the rules of research models and the experts available in the city, 200 participants completed the questionnaire purposefully. The data was analyzed by applying parametric statistical methods. Moreover, in order to analyze the data and to test the hypotheses and the conceptual model, the variance-based structural equation was used (by using partial least squares). The results indicate that all of 11 variables (human hazards) account for the city of Ardabil’s vulnerability (0/781). The high values of t-statistic and path’s coefficient Alpha are related to economic risk factors, diseases and street accidents, respectively. In addition, the results indicate that all of the human hazards discussed in this study (except fire) have significant positive effects on Ardabil’s vulnerability.Therefore, his study makes it clear for managers that they can not only reduce the vulnerability of the city, but also they can make the city resilient by identification and planning of the human hazards and the variables explained them.
Amini-Varki, S., Modiri, M., Shamsai Zafargandi, F., & Ganbarinasab, A. (2014). Identifying Governor's Views on Urban Vulnerability to Environmental Factors and Extracting Effective Components Using Qi Methodology. Journal of Crisis Management. 3 (4), 5-18. (in Persian)
Chun-Nen, H. (2014). A method for exploring the interdepencies and important of critical infrastructures. Knowledge-Based Systems, 55, 66 -74.
Dow, K. (1992). Exploring differences in our common future(s): the meaning of vulnerability to global environmental change. Geoforum, 23 (3), 417- 436.
Faraji Sabokbar, H., Omidipor, M., Modiri, M., & Bastaminiya, A. (2016). Providing Damage Zoning Model of Ahvaz City Using SSP-Based Sorting Model. Crisis Management, 9 (1), 45-56. (in Persian)
Ghanbari, S., Hosni-Nejad, A., Najafi, M., & Shayan, M. (2016). Environmental hazards and efforts to mitigate its effects with emphasis on rural production cooperatives. Case study: Gourtan village. Journal of Environmental Risks, 5 (7), 46-29. (in Persian)
Mohamadi Dehcheshmeh, M. (2014). Inactive urban safety and security. Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz Publications. (in Persian)
Mohamadi Dehcheshmeh, M., & Heidarinia, S. (2015). Spatial Spatial Location Modeling of Passive Defense View in Ahwaz Metropolis. Planning and Space Planning, 19 (2), 21-36. (in Persian)
Mohamadi, A., & Pashazadeh, A. (2014). Measuring the Sustainability Level of Ardebil Neighborhoods, with an Emphasis on Rural based Neighborhoods. Journal of Urban Studies, 11, 51-64. (in Persian)
Mohamadpor, A. (2010). Meta-study of the philosophical and practical foundations of combined research method in social and behavioral sciences. Tehran: Publications of Sociologists. (in Persian)
Motili Langroodi, H. (2017). Why Dangers of Knowledge? The need to address human risks; unemployment. Journal of Environmental Risk Management (Extreme Risk Knowledge), 4 (2), 97-101. (in Persian)
Ozi, R. (2014). Geography of hazards (human and natural hazards). Translation by Mohammad Zaheri. Third edition. Tabriz: University of Tabriz Publications. (in Persian)
Poyan, J., & Nategolahi, F. (1999). Urban Vulnerability to Earthquakes; Case Study of Tehran. Third International Conference on Seismology and Earthquake Engineering, Vol 4, Tehran. (in Persian)
Qian, G. (2009). System Vulnerability of Urban Lifeline in Emergency Response. Management and Service Science. International Conference on Wuhan, 1- 4.
Ramesht, M. H., & Entezari, M. (2015). Why is the risk of knowledge? (The need to address human vulnerability). hazards Management, 2 (4), 371-375. (in Persian)
Ranjbar, M., & Hamza Nissani, M. (2014). Evaluation of the vulnerability of urban roads and communication networks in the ten municipal districts of Tehran based on non-operational defense principles and using the Carver method. Natural Geography, 7 (26), 120-99. (in Persian)
Razavian, M. T. (2002). Urban Land Use Planning. Publishing Monshi. (in Persian)
Sajjadyan, N., Zadoli, Sh. H., & Zadoli, F. (2017). Factors Affecting Ethnic Crises in the Border Areas and Its Damage (Case Study: West Azarbaijan Province). Border science and technology, 8 (1), 51-74. (in Persian)
Shayan, M., Payard, A., & Bazand, S. (2017). Analysis of the Effects of Improvement of Variation Indicators on the Sustainability of Rural Settlements against Flood (Case Study: Rural Settlement in Zarrin Dashte). Journal of Environmental Risk Management (Extreme Risk Knowledge), 4 (2), 103-121. (in Persian)
Smith, K. (1992). Environmental Hazards: Assessing Risk and Reducing Disaster, London, Routledg.
Taheri, K. (2015). Investigating the Effects of Supply Chain Agility on Organizational Profitability, Master Thesis for Executive Management. Faculty of Management and Accounting. Tehran: Shahid Beheshti University. (in Persian)
Wisner, B., Walker, P., Beyond. Kobe, A. (2005). Feinstein International Famine Center. Proactive Look at the World Conference on Disaster Reduction. 18-22 January Kobe, Japan. A report for the Swiss Department of Humanitarian Aid.
_||_Amini-Varki, S., Modiri, M., Shamsai Zafargandi, F., & Ganbarinasab, A. (2014). Identifying Governor's Views on Urban Vulnerability to Environmental Factors and Extracting Effective Components Using Qi Methodology. Journal of Crisis Management. 3 (4), 5-18. (in Persian)
Chun-Nen, H. (2014). A method for exploring the interdepencies and important of critical infrastructures. Knowledge-Based Systems, 55, 66 -74.
Dow, K. (1992). Exploring differences in our common future(s): the meaning of vulnerability to global environmental change. Geoforum, 23 (3), 417- 436.
Faraji Sabokbar, H., Omidipor, M., Modiri, M., & Bastaminiya, A. (2016). Providing Damage Zoning Model of Ahvaz City Using SSP-Based Sorting Model. Crisis Management, 9 (1), 45-56. (in Persian)
Ghanbari, S., Hosni-Nejad, A., Najafi, M., & Shayan, M. (2016). Environmental hazards and efforts to mitigate its effects with emphasis on rural production cooperatives. Case study: Gourtan village. Journal of Environmental Risks, 5 (7), 46-29. (in Persian)
Mohamadi Dehcheshmeh, M. (2014). Inactive urban safety and security. Shahid Chamran University of Ahvaz Publications. (in Persian)
Mohamadi Dehcheshmeh, M., & Heidarinia, S. (2015). Spatial Spatial Location Modeling of Passive Defense View in Ahwaz Metropolis. Planning and Space Planning, 19 (2), 21-36. (in Persian)
Mohamadi, A., & Pashazadeh, A. (2014). Measuring the Sustainability Level of Ardebil Neighborhoods, with an Emphasis on Rural based Neighborhoods. Journal of Urban Studies, 11, 51-64. (in Persian)
Mohamadpor, A. (2010). Meta-study of the philosophical and practical foundations of combined research method in social and behavioral sciences. Tehran: Publications of Sociologists. (in Persian)
Motili Langroodi, H. (2017). Why Dangers of Knowledge? The need to address human risks; unemployment. Journal of Environmental Risk Management (Extreme Risk Knowledge), 4 (2), 97-101. (in Persian)
Ozi, R. (2014). Geography of hazards (human and natural hazards). Translation by Mohammad Zaheri. Third edition. Tabriz: University of Tabriz Publications. (in Persian)
Poyan, J., & Nategolahi, F. (1999). Urban Vulnerability to Earthquakes; Case Study of Tehran. Third International Conference on Seismology and Earthquake Engineering, Vol 4, Tehran. (in Persian)
Qian, G. (2009). System Vulnerability of Urban Lifeline in Emergency Response. Management and Service Science. International Conference on Wuhan, 1- 4.
Ramesht, M. H., & Entezari, M. (2015). Why is the risk of knowledge? (The need to address human vulnerability). hazards Management, 2 (4), 371-375. (in Persian)
Ranjbar, M., & Hamza Nissani, M. (2014). Evaluation of the vulnerability of urban roads and communication networks in the ten municipal districts of Tehran based on non-operational defense principles and using the Carver method. Natural Geography, 7 (26), 120-99. (in Persian)
Razavian, M. T. (2002). Urban Land Use Planning. Publishing Monshi. (in Persian)
Sajjadyan, N., Zadoli, Sh. H., & Zadoli, F. (2017). Factors Affecting Ethnic Crises in the Border Areas and Its Damage (Case Study: West Azarbaijan Province). Border science and technology, 8 (1), 51-74. (in Persian)
Shayan, M., Payard, A., & Bazand, S. (2017). Analysis of the Effects of Improvement of Variation Indicators on the Sustainability of Rural Settlements against Flood (Case Study: Rural Settlement in Zarrin Dashte). Journal of Environmental Risk Management (Extreme Risk Knowledge), 4 (2), 103-121. (in Persian)
Smith, K. (1992). Environmental Hazards: Assessing Risk and Reducing Disaster, London, Routledg.
Taheri, K. (2015). Investigating the Effects of Supply Chain Agility on Organizational Profitability, Master Thesis for Executive Management. Faculty of Management and Accounting. Tehran: Shahid Beheshti University. (in Persian)
Wisner, B., Walker, P., Beyond. Kobe, A. (2005). Feinstein International Famine Center. Proactive Look at the World Conference on Disaster Reduction. 18-22 January Kobe, Japan. A report for the Swiss Department of Humanitarian Aid.
