Simulating Past Dynamics and Assessing Current Status of Markhoz Goat Population on Its Habitat
محورهای موضوعی : Camelح.ر. بهمنی 1 , م. طهمورث‌پور 2 , ا. اسلمی نژاد 3 , م. وطن خواه 4 , ا. رشیدی 5
1 - Department of Animal Science, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
2 - Department of Animal Science, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
3 - Department of Animal Science, Faculty of Agriculture, Ferdowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
4 - ShahrekordAgriculture and Natural Resources Research Center, Chahar Mahal, Iran
5 - Department of Animal Science, Faculty of Agriculture, University of Kurdistan, Sanandaj, Iran
کلید واژه: Conservation, geneticdiversity, Markhoz goat, viabilityanalysis,
چکیده مقاله :
This study was conducted to collect comprehensive identification about Markhoz goat population and to simulate past dynamics of the population under its living conditions.Census data of the population size and the required parametersfor the simulation modelwere obtained frompublished data or were collected in its habitat in the last 3 years. In this study, past population dynamics and expected loss of genetic diversity in the population were simulated by population viability analysis (PVA) using Vortex modeling program version 10.0.Markhoz breeding goats and population size showed a downward trend on its own habitat. The last known number of breeding does, bucks and total population of the Markhoz goat breed on its habitat were 917, 55 and 1669 heads in 2012. Computed and simulated inbreeding rates (ΔF)were 2.4%and 3.9%, respectively. Simulated Ne for this population was 128 which are near to critical size of 100.Furthermore, the extinction probability (EP) of 0%, stochastic growth rate of -0.1624, losing genetic diversity of 5% and inbreeding of 0.0311 were simulated using the PVA for a past time horizon( from 1996 to 2012). Having considered different parameters and threats with the reliable values and probabilities, PVA model simulated correctly the past period of population dynamics. Based on our findings, 1) future viability and the expected loss of diversity should be estimated under obtained demographic and environmental parameters. 2) different management scenarios should be examined to provide a conservation program.
به منظور جمع‌آوری اطلاعات جامعی از جمعیت بز مرخز و شبیه‌سازی دینامیک گذشته جمعیت در زیستگاه اصلی آن، این تحقیق انجام شد. اطلاعات سرشماری جمعیت و فراسنجه‌های مورد نیاز برای مدل شبیه‌سازی از منابع منتشر شده یا در زیستگاه بز مرخز در طی سه سال از سال 1389 تا 1391 جمع‌آوری شدند. در این بررسی، دینامیک گذشته و کاهش مورد انتظار در تنوع ژنتیکی جمعیت از طریق تجزیه و تحلیل حیاتی جمعیت (PVA) و با استفاده از نسخه دهم نرم افزار Vortex شبیه‌سازی شدند. اندازه جمعیت و مولدین بز مرخز یک روند رو به کاهش را در زیستگاه جمعیت نشان دادند. تعداد مولدهای ماده، مولدهای نر و کل جمعیت در آخرین سال بررسی به ترتیب 917، 55 و 1669 رأس بودند. نرخ همخونی محاسبه شده و شبیه‌سازی شده به ترتیب 4/2 و 9/3 درصد بودند. اندازه مؤثر شبیه‌سازی شده جمعیت (128) نیز نزدیک به اندازه بحرانی 100 بود. بعلاوه، احتمال انقراض، نرخ رشد تصادفی، کاهش در تنوع ژنتیکی و ضریب همخونی از 16 سال پیش تا سال 1391 با تجزیه و تحلیل حیاتی جمعیت به ترتیب، 0 درصد، 1624/0-، 5 درصد و 0311/0 شبیه‌سازی شدند. روش تجزیه و تحلیل حیاتی جمعیت با در نظر گرفتن مقادیر و احتمالات معتبری از فراسنجه‌های زیستی و تهدیدات موجود، به درستی دینامیک گذشته جمعیت را شبیه‌سازی کرد. بر اساس یافته‌های این تحقیق، توصیه می‌شود: 1) با استفاده از فراسنجه‌های محیطی و جمعیتی بدست آمده، احتمال بقاء جمعیت در آینده و مقدار مورد انتظار کاهش در تنوع ژنتیکی برآورد گردند. 2) سناریوهای مختلف مدیریتی به منظور تهیه برنامه حفاظتی برای این نژاد شبیه‌سازی شوند.
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