Logistic Regression Analysis of Some Factors Influencing Incidence of Retained Placenta in a Holstein Dairy Herd

محورهای موضوعی : Camel

ف. بحری بیناباج ¹ , ه. فرهنگ فر ² , س. عزیزیان ³ , م. جعفری ⁴ , ک. حسن‌پور ⁵

1 - Department of Animal Science,Faculty of Agricultural Science, University of Gonbad Kavoos, Gonbad Kavoos, Iran
2 - Department of Animal Science,Faculty of Agricultural Science, University of Birjand, Birjand, Iran
3 - Department of Animal Science, Faculty of Agricultural Science, University of Guilan, Rasht, Iran
4 - Agriculture Jihad Organization of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran
5 - Department of Animal Science, Faculty of Agricultural Science, Fredowsi University of Mashhad, Mashhad, Iran

تاریخ دریافت : 1391/10/07 تاریخ پذیرش : 1391/12/11 تاریخ انتشار : 1393/03/11

کلید واژه: Holstein cow, logistic analysis, odds ratio, retained placenta,

چکیده مقاله :

To investigate the effects of certain factors on the rate of retained placenta, 2844 calving records from 1288 Holstein cows in a herd were used. These cows calved during year period of 2001 to 2007. A generalized statistical linear model was applied to analyze the data. Logistic regression model was applied as the statistical model. In the model, fixed effects of year, season (warm or cold) and sex and birth type (single or twin) of calf and parity and gestation length of dam were included. In data file, retained placenta incidence was introduced as binary codes: zero for healthy cows and one for cows with retained placenta and probability of code one was analyzed. Incidence of retained placenta was significantly affected by all the fixed effects included in the model. Odds ratio estimation for cold season compared to warm seasons was 0.619, which means probability of occurrence of this disease in cold season, is 39% less than in the warm season. Odds ratio estimation for female calves in comparison to male calves was 0.6, which implies that the former are 40% less probable to cause retained placenta. Probability of this disease in twin calving was 5.9 times more than singles. By increasing the parity number of the dam, the probability of experiencing retained placenta in cow increased. It could be concluded that the incidence of retained placenta may be reduced by management modifications.

چکیده انگلیسی:

برای بررسی اثر برخی عوامل بر میزان وقوع جفت ماندگی، 2844 رکورد زایمان مربوط به 1288 رأس گاو هلشتاین متعلق به یک گله به کار گرفته شد. این گاوها در سال های 1380 تا 1386 زایمان نموده بودند. مدل خطی تعمیم یافته برای تجزیه و تحلیل داده‌ها استفاده شد. مدل آماری رگرسیون لجیستیک جهت برازش مدل به کار رفت. مدل آماری، شامل اثرات ثابت سال، فصل (دوره گرم و سرد)، جنس و تیپ تولد ( تک یا دو قلو بودن) گوساله، نوبت زایش و طول دوره آبستنی در شکم فعلی گاو ماده بود. وقوع جفت ماندگی در فایل ارقام، به صورت کد صفر (گاو سالم) و کد یک (گاو مبتلا به جفت ماندگی) تعریف گردید و در آنالیز ارقام، احتمال ابتلاء به جفت ماندگی مورد نظر بود. تمام عوامل ثابت بر میزان وقوع جفت ماندگی اثر معنی‌دار آماری داشتند. برآورد نسبت احتمالات برای فصل سرد نسبت به فصل گرم، 619/0 بود که نشان می‌دهد احتمال میزان وقوع جفت ماندگی در فصل سرد نسبت به فصل گرم حدوداً 38 درصد کمتر است. برآورد نسبت احتمالات برای زایمان‌های گوساله ماده نسبت به گوساله نر 6/0 بود که نشان می‌دهد احتمال وقوع جفت ماندگی در زایمان‌های ماده 40 درصد کمتر است. نتایج نشان داد احتمال وقوع جفت ماندگی در گاوهای دو‌قلو زا نسبت به تک‌قلو زا 9/5 برابر بود. با افزایش تعداد شکم زایش احتمال ابتلاء به جفت ماندگی افزایش یافت. یافته‌ها حاکی از این هستند که با اعمال مدیریت مطلوب می‌توان میزان وقوع جفت ماندگی را در گله کاهش داد.

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