Evaluation of Various Approaches in Prediction of Daily and Lactation Yields of Milk and Fat Using Statistical Models in Iranian Primiparous Holstein Dairy Cows

محورهای موضوعی : Camel

M. Elahi Torshizi ¹ , M. Hosseinpour Mashhadi ²

1 - Department of Animal Science, Mashhad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Mashhad, Iran
2 - Department of Animal Science, Mashhad Branch, Islamic Azad University, Mashhad, Iran

تاریخ دریافت : 1393/02/18 تاریخ پذیرش : 1393/04/24 تاریخ انتشار : 1393/12/10

کلید واژه: lactation curve, wood function, daily milk and fat yield, test interval method, 305 day milk and fat yield,

چکیده مقاله :

In this research, 272977 test day records collected from 659 herds during years 2001 to 2011 by the Iranian animal breeding center were used. In the first section the ability of different models to predict daily milk yield from alternative milk recording was tested. The result showed that a complex model including noon milking time plus the effect of lactation curve of Ali and Schaeffer function is the best equation for prediction of daily milk yield. The highest correlation between true and estimated daily milk yield (0.892) and the lowest bias (2.391) were obtained using this method. Of the four models, the Ali and Schaeffer and the Wood models resulted in the best goodness of fit and gave a good description of the lactation curve (milk and fat yield) for dairy herds when test-day yield is used. Lastly, the most appropriate models for prediction of 305 d milk and fat yields were Ali and Schaeffer and Wood respectively. These models were able to predict milk and fat yields with the lowest residual mean square errors. Thus, the performance of models based on lactation curve functions were better than the test-interval method and the centering date method for prediction of 305-d milk and fat yield in Iranian primiparous Holstein cows.

چکیده انگلیسی:

در این تحقیق از 272977 رکورد روز آزمون گاوهای شیری از 659 گله مربوط به سال‌های 2001 تا 2011 که توسط مرکز اصلاح دام کشور جمع‌آوری گردیده، استفاده شده است. در قسمت اول توانایی مدل‌های مختلف برای پیش‌بینی تولید شیر روزانه با کمک رکوردهای صبح، ظهر و شب مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت. نتایج نشان داد که مدل‌های پیچیده‌تر به همراه تابع شیردهی علی- شفر و وعده شیر ظهر، بهترین معادله را برای پیش‌بینی تولید شیر روزانه فراهم می‌آورند. بیشترین همبستگی بین (892/0) مقدار تولید شیر واقعی و پیش‌بینی شده و کمترین اریبی (391/2) با استفاده از این روش محاسبه گردید. از 4 مدل مورد استفاده در این مقاله، توابع علی-شفر و وود، بهترین برازش را از منحنی تولید شیر و چربی ارائه نمودند. و در نهایت به ترتیب بهترین توابع برای پیش‌بینی تولید شیر 305 روزه، توابع علی-شفر و وود بودند. این مدل‌ها نسبت به بقیه توابع مورد استفاده قادر به پیش‌بینی تولید شیر و چربی با کمترین میانگین مربعات خطا شدند. بنابراین عملکرد توابع منحنی شیرواری در مقایسه با روش فاصله آزمونی و تاریخ آزمونی مرکزی برای پیش‌بینی تولید شیر و چربی 305 روزه گاوهای شیری شکم اول ایران بسیار دقیق‌تر است.

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