بررسی احتمالات وقوع جنگ در پی صعود چین به عرصه قدرت جهانی
محورهای موضوعی : فصلنامه علمی تحقیقات سیاسی و بین المللی
مهدی نصر
1
(استادیار علوم سیاسی دانشگاه پیام نور، ایران)
کلید واژه: چین, ایالات متحده, رئالیسم تهاجمی, شرق آسیا, هژمونی منطقه‌ای,
چکیده مقاله :
چین به تنهایی بسیاری از مفروضات دنیای پس از جنگ سردِ به نفع امریکا را زیر سوال برده. سوال این است که آیا صعود چین، طبق روالی که تاکنون طی کرده، مسیری صلح‌آمیز را طی خواهد کرد؟ در پاسخ به این سوال حالات مختلف را باید در نظر بگیریم. حالت نخست صلح به معنای تسلیم چین به امریکا و پذیرش منویات این کشور در آسیای شرقی و مناطق دیگر است. حالت بعدی رویارویی با ایالات متحده امریکا و ورود به جنگ در نقاط تحت نفوذ این کشور به خصوص در آسیای شرقی است. اما حالتی سوم و بینابین وجود دارد. در این حالت یک کشور نه آنقدر توان رویارویی مستقیم را دارد و نه منافع و میزان قدرتش اجازه می‌دهند که مماشات کامل کند. فرضیه ما این است که چین از منطق حالت سوم یعنی نه جنگ، نه صلح تبعیت می‌کند. اما اگر صعود چین به همین منوال پیش برود در دهه‌های آتی منازعات آن در حوزه آسیای شرقی افزایش چشمگیری خواهد داشت. این مقاله از روش توصیفی- کتابخانه‌ای و از چهارچوب نظری رئالیسم تهاجمی استفاده می‌کند. سعی می‌کنیم در این چهارچوب این دو را طبق روش تاریخی و همین طور بر اساس شواهد تجربی به خوبی نشان دهیم.
China alone has questioned lots of presuppositions of the world system after the cold war, those which were in America's benefit. Now the question is whether China's rise, just as status quo, will traverse a peaceful trajectory. To answer this question, we should consider different suppositions. The first supposition is piece in the meaning of Chinese surrendering to U.S. and the acceptance of American intentions in East Asia and in other regions in the world. The second one is China's confrontation with the United States and entering into war with U.S. in regions dominated by this country, especially eastern Asia. But there is a mediocre third supposition. In this supposition, one country can neither go to immediate war, nor do its interests and power allow it to compromise. Our hypothesis is that China follows the third logic, i. e. neither war nor piece. But if China's rise continues, disputes will grow notably in eastern Asia. This essay uses "offensive realism" as a theoretical framework to be applied on this subject. The results are going to be shown according to history and experimental considerations.
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