List of Articles Trade Balance

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  1 - Relationship between real effective exchange rate and trade balance, considering savings rate: Smooth Transition Regression (STR) Approach
  M. Mahdi Barghi Oskooei Alireza Kazerooni Behzad Salmani Saber Khodaverdizadeh
  Among the important policy objectives and economic programs, the implementation of policies for reducing the trade deficit. Empirical studies provided conflicting results regarding the effect of devaluations on the trade balance reached. This study aimed to investigate More

  Among the important policy objectives and economic programs, the implementation of policies for reducing the trade deficit. Empirical studies provided conflicting results regarding the effect of devaluations on the trade balance reached. This study aimed to investigate the nonlinear relationship between the real effective exchange rate and trade balance, considering the savings rate using a smooth transition regression approach during period 1960-2014. The results of smooth transition regression (STR) model estimation, confirmed that the savings rate had non-linear effect on the trade balance. Our estimation results showed that effectiveness of savings rate, the real effective exchange rate and terms of trade on trade balance depended to the regimes which Iranian economy was in there. Also we fund that generally in first regime savings rate and the effective real exchange rate had statically meaningful and positive effect on the trade balance and the terms of trade had a statically meaningful and negative effect on the trade balance. While crossing the threshold and entering into the second regime savings rate and terms of trade coefficients had statically meaningful and positive effect, but the real effective exchange rate had a statically meaningful and negative impact on the trade balance Manuscript profile
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  2 - The Test of Trade Balance Effect Symmetry and the Incidence of Effects of Monetary Policy on Output and Inflation
  seyyedeh sajedeh pourmohammadi amir mansour tehranchian saeed rasekhi
  10.30495/eco.2020.672516
      The economy of Iran, since 1385s In addition to significiant decrease in output has experienced the high and two-digit inflation rates. For this reason, review of determinantes of inflation rate and output has a remarkable necessity. The factors like More

      The economy of Iran, since 1385s In addition to significiant decrease in output has experienced the high and two-digit inflation rates. For this reason, review of determinantes of inflation rate and output has a remarkable necessity. The factors like population growth, Eccessive technological advancement, private investment and initial level of per capita income and money growth are the variables affecting on the growth. Also, the idea of “inflationary money” has the relative consensus among economists, but identifying of the factors that determine the intensity of the effectiveness of the monetary policy on inflation rate and output makes it possible for monetary policymakers to planning for controlling inflation and increasing the output. Trade Openness is one of the factors that has a determinative role in review of difference the effectiveness of money growth on inflation rate and output in different countries. The aim of the present study is the test of Trade balance effect symmetry and the Incidence of the effects of monetary policy on economic growth and inflation. For this purpose, years 2000-2014, related to 34 selected countries with high middle-income and Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) have been used. The research showed that more trade openness leads to increase the impact of monetary policy on output and decease the impact of monetary policy on inflation.the more trade liberalization through omitting or decreasing of tarrifs and import quotas are the main suggestions of this study Manuscript profile
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  3 - Changes in Virtual Water Trade Balance in Iran: A Structural Decomposition Analysis
  Nooraddin Sharify Hossein Esmaeili
  10.30495/eco.2023.1968378.2696
  This paper investigates the situation of foreign trade to compensate for water shortage problems in Iran. Using input-output tables of 2011 and 2016 tables, the changes in virtual water trade balance in this period were investigated. Results indicate that in spite of th More

  This paper investigates the situation of foreign trade to compensate for water shortage problems in Iran. Using input-output tables of 2011 and 2016 tables, the changes in virtual water trade balance in this period were investigated. Results indicate that in spite of the positive trade balance in these years, international trade caused virtual water to enter the country. However, both the value of the trade balance of products and the trade balance of virtual water in 2016 decreased compared to 2011. Overall, despite the increase in the import of virtual water due to the decrease in the total backward linkage of final products and the change in the share of exports and imports in the foreign trade balance; changes in the trade balance, the intensity of direct water consumption, the structure of production, and the structure of traded goods, respectively, contributed the most to the reduction of virtual water imports. Manuscript profile
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  4 - Threshold Effect of Oil Prices on Bilateral Trade Balances in Iran: A Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model (PSTR)
  kiumars shahbazi ghomri karimi
  This paper investigates the threshold effect of oil prices on bilateral trade balances in Iran and 14 main trading countries during 1992 - 2010 by using a Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model. oil prices is selected as the variable of transition. The empirica More

  This paper investigates the threshold effect of oil prices on bilateral trade balances in Iran and 14 main trading countries during 1992 - 2010 by using a Panel Smooth Transition Regression (PSTR) model. oil prices is selected as the variable of transition. The empirical results indicate a strong nonlinear relationship between the trade balance and dependent variables. The threshold value and transition parameter are -0.44 and 12.99 representing the average adjustment speed. Moreover, it is sufficient to consider one transition function by one threshold to estimate a nonlinear model. In the first regime, oil prices have a positive impact on the trade balance. This effect becomes negative when passing from the threshold value and in the second regime. The results suggest that by high levels of oil prices, the increases have a negative impact on bilateral trade balances indicating that the dependence of economy on oil should be reduced. Manuscript profile
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  5 - Investigating the Commercial Relations between Iran and Its Other Major Trading Partner Focusing on J-Curve Test
  Hasan Heidari Fatemeh Zarei
  The appearance of J-curve phenomenon to the issues of international economics in 1970s attracted the attention of researchers to short-run dynamics of trade balance response to the exchange rate changes. While, before 1970s; the studies investigated the reaction of trad More

  The appearance of J-curve phenomenon to the issues of international economics in 1970s attracted the attention of researchers to short-run dynamics of trade balance response to the exchange rate changes. While, before 1970s; the studies investigated the reaction of trade balance statically. J-curve hypothesis violates the positive effectiveness of currency depreciation on the trade balance in short-run. In this paper, we attempt to combine short-run dynamics of trade balance to its long-run changes by using appropriate method to test J-curve between Iran and other major trading partners in Asia. Bound test method in co-integration and Error Correction Model are used during 1991Q2-2007Q3. Outcomes of our study suggest that there is J-curve effect in bilateral trade balance between Iran and its two other partners, China and Japan. Also, the depreciation of Rial versus other currencies has a favorite effect on bilateral trade balance in long-run. Manuscript profile
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  6 - Evaluation of Agricultural Situation in Shoosh Danial City from Virtual Water Perspective
  Mohammad Aghapour Sabbaghi Fysal Fazle
  Due to lack of water resources in the country, the use of new concepts such as virtual water in the resource management process has a significant role. In this study, the city of Susa Daniel agriculture from the perspective of virtual water has been studied. The results More

  Due to lack of water resources in the country, the use of new concepts such as virtual water in the resource management process has a significant role. In this study, the city of Susa Daniel agriculture from the perspective of virtual water has been studied. The results of the study showed that the virtual water level of this city equals 135,362 million cubic meters per year. This number show that exports of virtual water is the city more than importing . One of the most important reasons for the export of virtual water in the city of Susa water based products such as sugar cane, rice, corn and tomato. The main source for importing virtual water caused by citrus, date, barely and potato. The results also showed that the city of Susa has little potential in the use of green water. Sothat only about 5.5 percent of province production garden produced by green water. Therefore, it is suggested cropping pattern Susa city change to greater use of green water andavoid of planting summer crops such as corn and vegetables . Manuscript profile
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  7 - Evaluating the Impact of Oil Price Volatilities and Output Gap on Trade Balance in Iranian Economy
  mehdi yazdani tahereh noorafroz
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                                                                                                     Abstract The macroeconomic variables have been affected by the volatilities and changes in oil price in the world countries and they have faced with serious challenges and lead to consider various tactics to avoid the negative effects of these shocks. However the instability of the oil market will make long-run planning impossible for policy making which is based on oil revenues in the oil exporting countries. Hence the purpose of this study is to evaluate the effect of volatility of oil price on the trade balance in Iranian economy during 1357-1390 with ARDL method. The results of this study indicate that the coefficients of oil prices and the output gap are significant in the 95% level and their relationships are negative with the trade balance. Moreover, the coefficient of exchange rate on the trade balance is positive and is statistically significant in 99% level. According the estimated relationship between oil price and the trade balance, policymakers can adopt suitable strategies in the face of volatiles in oil price and utilize it in economic development, codify social programs, set the annual budgets of the country and design appropriate policies to maintain economic stability. Manuscript profile
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  8 - The Empirical Analysis of the Effect of Fiscal Policies Shocks on Trade Balance in Iran (The Application of Structural VAR)
  Majid Maddah Elham Rastegarnia
  Trade balance influences macroeconomic indicators such as exchange rate and national income. The continuous positive balance leads to more entrance of currency and increasing GNP and also, continuous negative balance leads to outflow of currency and decreasing GNP. The More

  Trade balance influences macroeconomic indicators such as exchange rate and national income. The continuous positive balance leads to more entrance of currency and increasing GNP and also, continuous negative balance leads to outflow of currency and decreasing GNP. The fiscal policy tools and government budget situation can be effective on trade balance. In this paper, the effect of shocks from government expenditures and taxes on trade balance in Iran has been studied empirically using structural vector autoregressive regression (SVAR) method. The results from estimated model show that i) there is a negative and significant relationship between shocks from government expenditures and trade balance in Iran. This finding indicates that a positive shock from government expenditures will get worse the status of trade balance ii) the positive and significant relationship between trade balance and tax burden is confirmed that show more tax burden improve trade balance through limit import. Manuscript profile