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      • Open Access Article

        1 - Forecasting Total Index of Tehran Stock Exchange Using Geometric Brownian Motion Model
        Maryam Davallou Alireza Varzideh
        The use of models based on stochastic differential equations has attracted the attention of financial researchers in recent years and one of the most famous models is the Brownian Geometric Motion model. The purpose of this study is to predict the Tehran Stock Exchange More
        The use of models based on stochastic differential equations has attracted the attention of financial researchers in recent years and one of the most famous models is the Brownian Geometric Motion model. The purpose of this study is to predict the Tehran Stock Exchange total index, one of the important economic indicators for investors, using the geometric Brownian motion model. For this purpose, the total index of Tehran Stock Exchange was investigated in the period from the beginning of 1380 to the end of 1395. Finally, the results showed that the model was able to predict the 1 day horizons with high accuracy. Also, by increasing the length of the prediction horizon, the accuracy of the predicted values by the model is reduced, and the GBM model's ability to simulate the total index value of the stock exchange decreases Nevertheless, the predicted values are still high accurate until the 90-day forecast horizon. Manuscript profile
      • Open Access Article

        2 - Investigating the relationship between oil price and Iran's stock market index with an emphasis on political uncertainty and the Corona pandemic: Using wavelet transform approach
        nasim amin kharazian roya aleemran Rasoul baradaran hassanzadeh Amir Ali farhang
        The purpose of this research is to investigate the relationship between crude oil prices and the stock market index of Iran in the period from September 2009 to December 2020. For this purpose, by using wavelet coherence approach based on continuous wavelet transform, t More
        The purpose of this research is to investigate the relationship between crude oil prices and the stock market index of Iran in the period from September 2009 to December 2020. For this purpose, by using wavelet coherence approach based on continuous wavelet transform, the relationship between the yield pair series of Brent crude oil price-total stock index, WTI oil price-total stock index and OPEC oil price-total index of Tehran Stock Exchange has been investigated .The results of this research show that the dependence between the above pair of time series increases with the increase of uncertain conditions such as the increase of sanctions, the withdrawal of the United States from the JCPOA, and the corona pandemic in the medium and long term. Therefore, investors can adjust their investment portfolio in the long and medium term based on the conditions governing the country and their investment goals. Manuscript profile