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        1 - Variables affecting the volatility of Tehran Stock Exchange Price Index (TEPIX)
        عزت اله عباسیان سامان فلاحی حبیب سهیلی احمدی
        The uncertainty and volatility of the stock market is peculiar features of capital markets. This paper examines the volatility of Tehran Stock Exchange Price Index (TEPIX) due to the degree of uncertainty in the relevant macroeconomic variables. To analyze the relations More
        The uncertainty and volatility of the stock market is peculiar features of capital markets. This paper examines the volatility of Tehran Stock Exchange Price Index (TEPIX) due to the degree of uncertainty in the relevant macroeconomic variables. To analyze the relationship, we have used Vector Auto Regressive (VAR) and Conditional Variance Models (CVM) with quarterly data for the period of 1373-1388. Our findings show that a significant share of unpredictability in the TEPIX is due to its own endogenous variables. Moreover, the results indicate that price fluctuations in the parallel markets including housing and gold market also play an important role in the degree of the volatility. Manuscript profile
      • Open Access Article

        2 - Long-run and Short-run Effects of Monetary and Exchange Rate Variables on Stock Prices in Iran
        عباس علوی‌راد حمید حق‌نویس
        The movement in the stock price index is an important indicator in the economic system of a country. The purpose of this paper is to examine the long-run and short-run relations between Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) price index and monetary and exchange rate variables in More
        The movement in the stock price index is an important indicator in the economic system of a country. The purpose of this paper is to examine the long-run and short-run relations between Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) price index and monetary and exchange rate variables in Iran. We have used Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) modeling approach and Error Correction Model (ECM) to determine the effects of monetary and exchange rate variables on TSE price index in the long-run and short-run. This procedure for small sample will be the most appropriate. Quantitative estimates based on the time series monthly data from 2004 to 2009, indicate that liquidity (M2) has a positive effect on TSE price index in the long-run. But, free market exchange rate (FER) and legal reserve (LR) have a negative effect on TSE price index in the long-run. On the other hand, monetary variables have a significant effect on TSE price index in the short-run. However, the coefficient of the Error Correction Term (ECT) shows that the speed of adjustment is slow and the ECM can only explain 69 per cent of the fluctuations of TSE price index. Manuscript profile