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Open Access Article
1 - The Effects of Tax and Subsidy Policies to Maintain and Sustain Water Resources in Kaboodarahang Plain
mehdi elahi Mohammad Hassan Vakilpoor hamed najafi alamdarloo Mohammad Ali AsaadiBackground and Objective: Over the past decades, climate changes and the limitation of surface water resources have caused excessive utilization of groundwater stocks, so that aquifers in most of the country's plains have no favorable situation now. Kaboodarahang plain MoreBackground and Objective: Over the past decades, climate changes and the limitation of surface water resources have caused excessive utilization of groundwater stocks, so that aquifers in most of the country's plains have no favorable situation now. Kaboodarahang plain is as one of the critical forbidden plains of the country which is facing water crisis. The status entails employing proper management of groundwater resources policies. The present study focuses on the economic, social, and environmental impacts of applying tax and subsidy policies per cubic meter of consumed or saved surplus water as an alternative to pricing approach.Method: This study was conducted and investigated via using Positive Mathematical Programming and Maximum Entropy Planning. Tax and subsidy policies were applied per cubic meter of surplus used or saved surplus water in three varying scenarios e.g. 329, 658 and 987 Rials. Needed data and information were obtained by referring to relevant organizations and 141 questionnaires completed via multi-stages cluster sampling method amid farmers of Kaboodarahng Plain during 2016-2017.Findings: The results showed no significant change in the area under cultivation by applying tax and subsidy policies per cubic meter of surplus water consumed or saved, while rather drives the cropping pattern towards certain crops e.g. barley, cucumber and watermelon. Also, the outcomes of the research proved that applying the foregoing policies, besides reducing water consumption would increase the gross profit of target farmers.Discussion and Conclusion: Applying tax and subsidy policies per cubic meter of used or saved surplus water could not only motivate farmers to reduce their water consumption but provide a good alternative to water pricing policy. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
2 - Habitat Suitability Modeling for Brown Bear (Ursus arctos syriacus) in Naposhteh-Chai Watershed
جلیل سرهنگ زاده Bahman KianiBackground and Objective: Brown bear (Ursus Arctos) is classified as a Least Concern (LC) species of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), but its population and distribution have decreased during last decades. This study was carried out to assess t MoreBackground and Objective: Brown bear (Ursus Arctos) is classified as a Least Concern (LC) species of the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN), but its population and distribution have decreased during last decades. This study was carried out to assess the habitat suitability for Brown bear and the effective factors affecting its distribution in Naposhteh-Chai watershed. Method: Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) approach available in MaxEnt software was used for the habitat suitability modeling of this species from autumn 2015 to autumn 2016. Information layers determined as affecting variables on this species include the slope, aspect, elevation, land use, water resources, human development variables (villages and roads) and climate. Findings: Results showed that 24.4 percent of Naposhteh-Chai watershed were suitable for Brown bear. Based on habitat suitability map, Brown bear preferred elevation range of 1000 to 2100 meters and slope of 10 to 60 percent. Furthermore, existing of densed forests, farmlands, water sources, villages and also aspect and climate, are important factors in the presence of this species. Discussion and Conclusion: Results of model evaluation using the area under the curve (ROC= 0.970) showed that prediction of this model are much more accurate than random conditions. Brown bear suitable integrated habitats, are located in Makidi, Oskolu, Naposhteh and Bala Sang areas. Prevention of tourism development in the suitable habitats of Brown bear, and, determination of corridors and movement routs of the species outside of the Naposhteh-Chai watershed in future studies were suggested in the route of this research. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
3 - Predicting the effects of climate change on the distribution of mangrove forests in Iran using the maximum entropy model
Raziyeh Ghayoumi Elham Ebrahimi Farhad Hosseini Tayefeh Mostafa KeshtkarSpatial modelling of distribution in the plant communities apply for predicting potential habitat areas and protecting species and determining the factors affecting their distribution. The study purpose is to determine the potential distribution of mangroves in Iran und MoreSpatial modelling of distribution in the plant communities apply for predicting potential habitat areas and protecting species and determining the factors affecting their distribution. The study purpose is to determine the potential distribution of mangroves in Iran under climate change. In this study, occurrence records for Avicenia marina as dominant species were collected and MaxEnt modeling was used to predict the distribution of mangrove forests. The result showed the most suitable areas for the mangrove distribution under current climatic conditions are the Oman Sea coasts and the eastern coast of the Persian Gulf from Gwadar Bay to the northern coasts of Qeshm Island and Nayband Bay in the southern part of Bushehr Province. In the year 2050, habitat suitability based on the RCP2.6 and RCP8.5 scenarios, on the eastern coasts of the Persian Gulf and the Oman Sea, will increase. Both current and future climatic conditions, the northern coasts of Bushehr Province and the coasts of Khuzestan Province were not defined as suitable habitats. The results can apply for the conservation plan and mangrove planting. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
4 - Modeling of Acacia tortilis (Forssk.) Hayne habitat suitability using maximum entropy method in Hormozgan province
cyrus madahi nejad Yahya Esmaeilpour Marziyeh RezaiFactors affecting the distribution of plant species include climate, soil properties, topography, land use, and total biological relationships. Climate is one of the most important factors in the distribution of plant species. The present study was conducted to predict MoreFactors affecting the distribution of plant species include climate, soil properties, topography, land use, and total biological relationships. Climate is one of the most important factors in the distribution of plant species. The present study was conducted to predict the geographical distribution of Acacia tortilis (Forssk. Hayne), to find important environmental factors and to investigate the tolerance of the species to environmental factors in Hormozgan province. According to the purpose, vegetation information and habitat factors such as elevation, climate, geology and soil were collected. Vegetation sampling was done randomly-systematically by plotting along 4 transects of 200-1000 m. Map of environmental variables was prepared using GIS. Then, prediction maps related to species distribution were prepared using entropy modeling method. The accuracy of the obtained prediction models was evaluated using AUC statistics. In general, the results showed that the variables of total rainfall in the hottest season, seasonal changes of rainfall (coefficient of variation), total rainfall of the lowest rainfall of the year, average temperature of the driest season, average of the warmest season are the most important climatic characteristics. They affect the distribution of Acacia tortilis (Forssk. Hayne).characteristics. They affect the distribution of Acacia tortilis (Forssk. Hayne).The results of this study can solve the problems facing habitat management. In fact, when a species is threatened by habitat destruction, by recognizing the factors to which the species is highly dependent, conservation plans can be proposed according to the habitat needs of the species. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
5 - Evaluation of of DEMs to the modeling of the potential of gully erosion using Maxent model (Case study: Semirom catchment in the south of Isfahan Province, Iran)
Reza ZakerinejadBackground and ObjectiveGully erosion is a type of water erosion that occurs in many climate areas, from arid to humid areas. This type of soil loss causes the displacement and destruction of soil surface horizons by the accumulation of runoff. In many parts of Iran, in MoreBackground and ObjectiveGully erosion is a type of water erosion that occurs in many climate areas, from arid to humid areas. This type of soil loss causes the displacement and destruction of soil surface horizons by the accumulation of runoff. In many parts of Iran, in the north, south and central faced with this type of soil loss. In fact, gully erosion occurs in this area due to the complex topography, erodible soils, mismanagement of soil and land use/land cover. Therefore, in order to protect the soil in these areas, it is necessary that a susceptible map should be available to the managers and policymakers. Many parameters affect the occurrence of gullu erosion, including soil, geology, tectonics, hydrology, land use, vegetation and topography, that have been mentioned in various studies around the world. The topographic indices are the most important parameters in the event of gully erosion, which operates differently in each region according to the physical characteristics of the areas. This parameter also indirectly affects the other indicators or criteria (for example, its impact on the vegetation, climate and soil of the area). Even there are many researches on the gully erosion, but there are only a few studies on the modelling with applying the stochastic approaches. This study is the first attempt to the modelling of gully erosion in the central of Iran with applying the maximum Entropy model and topographic indices that have been applied with using the free of charge of digital elevation model. This study uses a new approach to preparing the susceptibility map of gully erosion in the Semirom catchment in the South of Isfahan province. This area is affected by different types of water erosion, same as; gully, rill and landslide. Also, the purpose of this research is to compare the accuracy of two digital elevation model, ASTER and SRTM with 30 m resolution, (DEM) from USGS website, for the modelling of gully erosion in the study area. The emphasis of this research was on the topography indices because it has most important on the event of gully erosion. Materials and MethodsIn this research for the prediction of the susceptible areas in the result of the main type of gully erosion, the following steps have been applied; In the first step the locations of some sampled gullies, have been digitized randomly with using the Google Earth (GE) images, aerial photos and fieldwork in polygon shapes for each gully. Subsequently, we converted the polygons and into equally spaced points. In the second step, we determine the most important criteria as the environment layers for the modeling. These topography indices including, wetness Index (TWI), curvature, profile curvature, slope, aspect, catchment area, flow length, elevation, slope, LS factor, Stream Power Index (SPI). The topographic indices have been extracted in SAGA GIS from the SRTM DEM with 30m spatial resolution and were then converted to the ASCII format to run in the model. Before applying the indices, the DEM was preprocessed with low pass filtering to extract artefacts and errors, like local noise and with using ArcGIS. Subsequently, the DEM was hydrologically corrected eliminating sinks using the algorithm proposed by Planchon & Darboux. The Maximum Entropy Model is a general-purpose method for making predictions or inferences from incomplete information. MEM explores applications in diverse areas such as astronomy, portfolio optimization, image reconstruction, statistical physics and signal processing. The idea of Maxent is to estimate a target probability. In fact, this model needs only the gullies feature (present data). The advantages of this model include the following; It requires only presence data together with environmental information for the whole study area. It can utilize both continuous and categorical data and can incorporate interactions between different variables. Results and Discussion With applying the Maxent model in the Semirom catchment, it was trained using 70% of the mapped points of gully features as the target or dependent variable and 30% of the mapped gully as testing samples. The raster type of environmental layers (topographic indices) as the independent variable. The validity of the model used in this study was assessed using the level below ROC or Area Under Curve (AUC). The ROC curve was automatically generated by running this model for both training and testing data. The AUC for training data for SRTM and ASTER is 0.64 and 0.72 respectively and also for testing is 0.68 and 0.72 respectively. These results indicate that the SRTM elevation model has higher accuracy than the ASTER DEM. One of the reasons for the low accuracy of the ASTER DEM can be due to the impact of vegetation, which has caused terrace-like errors, while in the SRTM DEM, due to the radar nature of the waves, this error is reduced and a more accurate map of this the model has been prepared. Our results show that SPI index with 40.3% contribution, elevation with 22.7% and convergence with 18% are the most important factors for the zoning of the susceptible areas. Regarding the predicted map of the potential of gully erosion, the area in the central and south of the study area are in the high probability. Conclusion This study applied the Maxent model to map the susceptibility of gully erosion in the Semirom catchment in the Isfahan Province, using various topographic effective factors and the Maxent model. Stochastic approaches like statistical mechanics provide a powerful tool to study the relations between locations of gully erosion features and corresponding environmental characteristics. The result of this study can be used for land-use planning and management of the areas with gully erosion for sustainable development in the prone areas. Although the results of this study show the prominent role of the topographic indicators for the prediction of the potential gully map, to increase the accuracy of the modeling results, in the furture researches the other criteria such as land use, vegetation and used soil, etc according to the availability of information to can be applied. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
6 - The Simultaneous Equation Model Based on the Generalized Maximum Entropy Method for Studying the Effect of Managerial Factors on Operation of Investment of Kermanshah Province’s Productive Companies
Adel Fatemi Hamid Reza Mostafaei Behnaz Karami Farzad NazemiThe paper aims at studying the effect of efficient economic factors on the operation of investment. Existing communications between managerial factors and economic function have been studied by simultaneous equation model based on the estimated method of Generalized Max MoreThe paper aims at studying the effect of efficient economic factors on the operation of investment. Existing communications between managerial factors and economic function have been studied by simultaneous equation model based on the estimated method of Generalized Maximum Entropy. Some comparisons have been also made between estimated methods of Generalized Maximum Entropy, Partial Least Squares and Maximum Likelihood Estimation on 40 productive companies of Kermanshah province. Examining the achieved consequences in the following research, the results show more advantages and fewer errors of the Generalized Maximum Entropy method in comparison with common methods of Partial Least Squares and Maximum Likelihood Estimation which are proven with more limits and errors. Consequently, this method can be a reliable and appropriate replacement for estimating factors of regression and errors in the Generalized Maximum Entropy. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
7 - Sentimental Categorization of Persian News Headlines using Three Machine Learning Techniques Versus Human Categorization
Vahid Mirzaeian -
Open Access Article
8 - Transmission of International Prices of Corn to Iranian Domestic Markets
یعقوب زراعت کیش هانیه متقاعد -
Open Access Article
9 - Multiple vacation policy for MX/Hk/1 queue with un-reliable server
Madhu Jain Richa Sharma Gokul Chandra Sharma
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