-
Open Access Article
1 - Threshold Effects of Government Size on Happiness Inequality in Iran
Ebrahim Zare mehrzad ebrahimi Abbas Aminifard Hashem ZareHappiness and happiness inequality are important issues that economists have been studying in recent years. However, studies addressing the inequality of happiness are limited, and more research is needed to shed light on its antecedents and mechanism. Th MoreHappiness and happiness inequality are important issues that economists have been studying in recent years. However, studies addressing the inequality of happiness are limited, and more research is needed to shed light on its antecedents and mechanism. The purpose of this study is to examine the relationship between government size and happiness inequality in the Iranian economy using a threshold regression model during the period of 1974-2016. The results of the estimation of research models show that the size of the government has a threshold effect on happiness inequality. In other words, before the threshold of 13 percent of the government-to-GDP ratio, the government size has a diminutive effect on the inequality of happiness, but after passing through the threshold and increasing the government's involvement in the economy, this variable has a significant positive effect on the happiness inequality. Thus, the expansion of the size of government in the Iranian economy has exacerbated the happiness gap between the low-income and high-income classes of society. Based on the research results, it is suggested that policymakers pay attention to the threshold relationship between government size and inequality of happiness of society when implementing their policies. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
2 - Comparing the Performance of ARIMA and MS-AR Models to Forecast Business Cycles in Iran
Mehdi Fazel Akbar Tavakoli Mostafa RajabiIt is clear that business cycles are inevitable in economy. On the other hand, the economists are always looking for how to form business cycles and so under the effect of economic policies, since the economic situation is depended to these policies. Therefore, the acce MoreIt is clear that business cycles are inevitable in economy. On the other hand, the economists are always looking for how to form business cycles and so under the effect of economic policies, since the economic situation is depended to these policies. Therefore, the access to more precise business cycles forecasting methods would direct and manage the economic situation and policies powerfully. Hence, the main objective of this study is to construct a new model based on Markov-Switching Autoregressive (MS-AR) model to forecast the business cycles in Iran. In addition, the model constructed is compared to ARIMA to represent its power. GDP data seasonally covers the period 1989: I – 2009: IV collected from Central Bank of Iran. MS-AR and ARIMA models are applied to forecast the behavior of business cycles. By using MAPE, RMSE and Theil criteria (TIC), the results indicate that MS-AR model will work better than ARIMA to forecast GDP business cycles. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
3 - Mechanism of impact of shocks on oil prices, currency prices and investment, taking into account adjustment costs on the stock price index
Peyman Armagan Manijeh Hadi-Najad Marjan DamnKeshide Masoume ShojaeiAbstractThe present article explains the mechanism of the effect of shocks on oil prices, currency prices and investment by considering the adjustment costs on the stock price index using SVAR structural self-regression model for the years 1370-1397. Based on SVAR model MoreAbstractThe present article explains the mechanism of the effect of shocks on oil prices, currency prices and investment by considering the adjustment costs on the stock price index using SVAR structural self-regression model for the years 1370-1397. Based on SVAR model estimation results; A shock in oil prices will reduce production by 5 percent and reduce employment in the country by 1 percent. The results also show that a single impulse from the oil price range increases the stock price index by 33%, as well as an exchange rate impulse from the exchange rate increases the stock price index by 7% and an impulse from Taking into account the adjustment cost, the investment area will reduce the stock price index by 40%, as well as a shock from the commercial period and the production gap will reduce the stock price index by 17%. Also based on the results of analysis of variance among the variables of the model; Investing in adjustment costs, oil price shocks, currency shocks, real interest rate shocks and production gaps, respectively, accounted for the largest percentage of explanatory changes in the model during the period under review. Therefore, reducing investment adjustment costs by applying various policies such as; Distributing skills and supporting unemployed workers, developing technical and vocational education, reducing labor costs between industries, using trade liberalization policies can be helpful in ensuring macroeconomic stability and stock market and stock market index.. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
4 - ارزشگذاری اقتصادی سایتهای تفریحی با استفاده از رویکرد هزینه سفر انفرادی تکمنظوره؛ مطالعه موردی: سایت دربند تهران
رحمان خوش اخلاق سید وحید صفایی فرد بهناز ورشوساز -
Open Access Article
5 - Financial Deepening Influences on Misery Index (Panel Data Approach)
پروانه سلاطین کاملیا قلمزن نیکو نیلوفر غفاری صومعهAbstract Inflation imposes welfare costs through reduction of value of financial assets and it damages production by creating uncertainty in institutions’ decision for investment and imposing other costs. Inflation, in fact, leads to non-optimal resource allocati MoreAbstract Inflation imposes welfare costs through reduction of value of financial assets and it damages production by creating uncertainty in institutions’ decision for investment and imposing other costs. Inflation, in fact, leads to non-optimal resource allocation, economic inefficiency, and disarray in the social, cultural, and political condition of the society. Unemployment, like inflation, causes disarray in the society. Unemployed people appear as parasites in the society and play no part in production and social services. Moreover, unemployment causes people to be trapped in issues such as crime, addiction and moral corruption which leads to the disruption of the society’s cultural texture. Inflation and unemployment are two major social issues. The harmful effects of these two social issues are such that the “Misery Index” is often calculated as the sum of inflation and unemployment rates. In this regard, the main objective of this paper is to analyze the effect of financial markets on the misery index in a group of selected countries with average income in the 2003-2014 period. Results from model estimation by the method of Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) show that: The trade volume to transaction volume ratio in a stock market (as an indicator of the capital market) has no effect on the misery index in the group of selected countries. Domestic credit to private sector by banks (as an indicator of the money market) has a negative and meaningful effect on misery index in the group of selected countries. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
6 - Investigating the effect of central bank intervention on the profitability of commercial banks in the country: a mild transfer regression approach
Azam Sadat Atyabi Alireza DagigiASL Gholamreza GaryenjadAbstract In the present study, in the first stage, the central bank's policy intervention index and foreign exchange market pressure were calculated, and then, using gentle transfer regression (STR), the effect of central bank intervention on the profitability of the c MoreAbstract In the present study, in the first stage, the central bank's policy intervention index and foreign exchange market pressure were calculated, and then, using gentle transfer regression (STR), the effect of central bank intervention on the profitability of the country's commercial banks was investigated. According to the model results; In 24 of the 30 years surveyed, the country's economy has faced increasing pressure from the foreign exchange market. In other words, between 1370 and 1399, the central bank's intervention activities eliminated an average of 24% of the foreign exchange market pressure. Also, the results of STR model estimation show the positive effect of economic growth rate variable on bank profitability and the negative effects of central bank intervention, stock return rate, credit risk, inflation rate and interest rate on the profitability of commercial banks. The negative coefficient of the central bank intervention index can indicate that the central bank, in the face of increasing positive deviations in the exchange rate, is pursuing a decline in the growth of its foreign reserves. In other words, with a further increase in the supply of foreign exchange in the market, its value decreases and the exchange rate return to its long-term path. On the other hand, if there is a negative deviation in the exchange rate of the central bank, by increasing the volume of foreign reserves and reducing the supply in the foreign exchange market, it can increase this rate and approach its long-term path, which is in line with existing theories. This is the context. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
7 - Nonlinear Effects of Financial Integration and Inflation on Labor Productivity in Selected Developing Countries: The Markov Switching Approach
Laleh Tabaghchi Akbari Mahmoud Babazadeh Ghasem Sameei Tahereh TaherehAkhundzadehYousefiAbstractOne of the most tangible and effective areas of productivity, which the process of transformation at it, can have a significant impact on this very important indicator, is process of financial integration. Financial integration by integrating financial economies MoreAbstractOne of the most tangible and effective areas of productivity, which the process of transformation at it, can have a significant impact on this very important indicator, is process of financial integration. Financial integration by integrating financial economies and relying more on market system and liberalization in its various dimensions can provide the basis for improving the productivity components. On the other hand, examining the impact of inflation on changes in growth rate of labor productivity is subject, which much attention in recent decades. Undoubtedly determination these effects can be helpful in adopting productivity policies. In this study, we investigate the nonlinear effects of financial integration and inflation on labor productivity in 15 selected developing countries at 2006 to 2019 with using of Markov Switching econometric technique. The results indicate that financial integration in both regimes, has a positive effect on labor productivity, but the intensity of this index impact is not very significant. There is also a Significant negative relationship about the effects of inflation on both regimes. Regarding the control variables, the business environment in first regime, has a negative effect and in second regime, it has a positive effect on labor productivity. Regarding the Institutional Factors Index, in the first regime has a positive relationship and in second regime has a negative relationship. Therefore, the need for new reform in these two areas is essential. So, it is necessary to make sustainable and cohesive planning to improve and development of financial integration indicators and also, control inflation in these societies, until from this way, to provide the grounds for promotion of labor productivity. Manuscript profile -
Open Access Article
8 - Uncertainty of government expenditure policy and economic activity in Iran
Mohammad Sadiq Jaji Mulla Mirzai Mahmoud Mahmoudzadeh Saleh Qavidel Mehdi FathabadiAbstract The present study examines the quantitative effects of uncertainty regarding government expenditure policy (current and construction expenditures) on Iran's economic activity. Uncertainty is a situation where future events or their probability of occurrence ar MoreAbstract The present study examines the quantitative effects of uncertainty regarding government expenditure policy (current and construction expenditures) on Iran's economic activity. Uncertainty is a situation where future events or their probability of occurrence are not predicted. In the real world, the economy is full of uncertainty of economic factors, which leads to risk and danger in the decision-making space of economic factors and affects their behavior. In this article, we intend to use the structural vector autoregression model (SVAR), which are known as impulse models; Uncertainty effects created by the government's current expenditures and construction expenditures and other effective indicators such as; Measure the impact of oil prices and financial crises on economic activities such as production and employment. The data of the study was collected from the Central Bank website and the model was estimated using Eviuse software for the years 1365-1399. The findings showed that an impulse from the oil price area causes a 5% increase in production and a 1% increase in employment, also an impulse from the financial crisis area causes a 3% decrease in production and a 12% decrease in employment, respectively. The impulse from the area of uncertainty of current and construction expenses, causes a decrease in order; 12 percent is produced and 7 and 5 percent is employed. Manuscript profile
Sanad
Sanad is a platform for managing Azad University publications
Links
Related Centers
Technical Support
Official pages
The rights to this website are owned by the Raimag Press Management System.
Copyright © 2021-2024