List of Articles عوامل خرد

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  1 - Investigation of Micro and Macro of Economic Policies Factors Affecting Corporate Financial Performance
  Ebrahim Alizadeh HamidReza Vakilifard Mohsen Hamidian
  Financial indicators are a good measure for policymakers who want to assess the current state of the economy and predict the future. The purpose of this study was to investigate the micro and macro factors of economic policies affecting the financial performance of comp More

  Financial indicators are a good measure for policymakers who want to assess the current state of the economy and predict the future. The purpose of this study was to investigate the micro and macro factors of economic policies affecting the financial performance of companies. Fuzzy Delphi fan research method and in the second stage to prioritize the indicators and determine the internal relationships between the indicators, the fuzzy dimtel method was used to systematically and comprehensively study to identify all the measures that may affect the profitability stability and other basic indicators. Financial performance is effective and a complete database of these metrics is provided. The results showed that the four most effective factors on the performance of companies among micro-financial factors according to experts, respectively, were the value of the company to debt, asset growth, income size and liquidity of assets. Also, the four most effective factors on the performance of companies among microeconomic factors according to experts, respectively, were the total index, price index, cash return index and industry index. And the four most influential factors on the performance of companies among macroeconomic factors have been production growth, investment growth, exchange rate fluctuations and financial instability, respectively. Manuscript profile
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  2 - A comprehensive Model Including Macro and Micro Factors Affecting Investment Motives in Stock Exchange Market
  Ali Mohammadi Firouzeh Setoudeh
  As previous researches have shown, investors in stock exchange market are affectedby various factors. Therefore this research is aimed to identify and rank these influentialfactors. For this purpose a general model including macro (political and economical) andmicro (en More

  As previous researches have shown, investors in stock exchange market are affectedby various factors. Therefore this research is aimed to identify and rank these influentialfactors. For this purpose a general model including macro (political and economical) andmicro (enterprise information, market information and psychological variables) factors isintroduced. Questionnaire was formed by a synthesis of existing constructs in relevantliterature. Reliability tests and statistical analyses were performed to confirm scalevalidity and reliability and to answer the research questions. Structural equation modelwas applied for this purpose. Statistical analyses revealed that, except for scientificanalysis (technical and fundamental) all the factors are positively and significantly relatedto investment motives. Also Friedman test showed that financial information, politicalfactors and trade information are most influential factors in investor’s motive. It worth tomention that this general model has been used for the first time and previous studies havebeen considered a part of these variables. Manuscript profile
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  3 - Investigation of Micro and Macro Economic Factors Affecting Corporate Financial Performance: A Fuzzy Dimensional Approach
  Ebrahim Alizadeh HamidReza Vakilifard mohsen hamidian
  Financial indicators are good benchmarks for policymakers who want to assess the current state of the economy and predict the future, especially for creditors and the central bank, and there are several reasons to justify this. The data on which the financial indices ar More

  Financial indicators are good benchmarks for policymakers who want to assess the current state of the economy and predict the future, especially for creditors and the central bank, and there are several reasons to justify this. The data on which the financial indices are calculated is essentially defined by looking at the future and possibly taking into account market expectations of the macro data. Financial indicators may also directly affect the future state of the economy or be influenced by macroeconomic and micro indicators. This study attempts to conduct a systematic and comprehensive study to identify all the measures that may be likely to affect profitability and other key indicators of financial performance and provide a complete database of these measures. For this purpose, a combination of knowledge domain and content analysis methods has been used to select effective metrics. Finally, the most effective factors are determined through interviews with experts and the fuzzy DEMATEL method. Manuscript profile
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  4 - Shock Modeling of Influencing Variables on Stock Return Forecasting with the Approach of BMA-BVR Models
  Majid Abdi Seied Atefe Hosseini Amir Gholam Abri
  10.30495/eco.2022.1972863.2706
  The purpose of the research is to predict stock returns using Bayesian averaging and BVAR. The current research is based on the applied research method and MATLAB 2021 and EVIEWS12 have been used to estimate the model. The time period of the research includes the years More

  The purpose of the research is to predict stock returns using Bayesian averaging and BVAR. The current research is based on the applied research method and MATLAB 2021 and EVIEWS12 have been used to estimate the model. The time period of the research includes the years 2010 to 2019. First, 11 non-fragile variables out of 64 entered variables were identified with the Bayesian averaging model approach. Based on the results of the current ratio; ROE; P/E; oil revenue; The increasing coefficient of money in the whole period has a positive effect and inflation fluctuation variables; debt ratio; fluctuation of GDP growth; unofficial market exchange rate; Interest rate and systematic risk have a negative effect on yield in the whole period. Based on the results of variance analysis, the most explanatory of changes in stock returns is caused by the variable itself (20 percent), followed by interest rate variables (14 percent); Inflation volatility (13 percent) and debt ratio and systematic risk (10 percent) have the highest effect in explaining yield changes. Manuscript profile
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  5 - Stock return prediction modeling, a new approach to Bayesian dynamic averaging models and time-varying parameters
  Majid Abdi Seyedeh Atefeh Hosseini Amir Gholam Abri
  10.30495/afi.2022.1970890.1160
  Purpose: The current research seeks to provide a stock return prediction model using micro, market level and macroeconomic data.Methodology: The current research is applied in terms of research methodology. Bayesian averaging model and TVP_FAVAR were estimated in MATLAB More

  Purpose: The current research seeks to provide a stock return prediction model using micro, market level and macroeconomic data.Methodology: The current research is applied in terms of research methodology. Bayesian averaging model and TVP_FAVAR were estimated in MATLAB 2021 software environment. The time frame of the research includes the period of 2011 to 2021.Findings: According to the output, variables at the micro level, market level and macro economy affect this index; Also, based on the results of the TVPFAVAR model, it was observed that the effect of the effective variables on stock returns is generally positive and strong, and this effect is generally stronger in the long term than in the short term.Originality / Value: 64 variables affecting stock returns in three groups at the micro, market and macroeconomic levels were entered into the model, and then using the Bayesian averaging model approach, 11 non-fragile variables affecting stock returns, which are current ratio, ratio debt, rate of return on equity; Price-profit ratio, oil income, GDP growth fluctuation, informal market exchange rate, inflation fluctuation, money multiplier, interest rate and systematic risk were identified. For this purpose, to solve the problem of traditional models that do not have the ability to identify the most important variables affecting stock returns, the Bayesian averaging method and the generalized vector autoregression method of the time variable parameter have been used. Manuscript profile