List of Articles macroeconomic variables

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  1 - Design a Model to Predict the Financial Crisis of the Iranian Capital market Using Smart Web Models
  Maryam Roohisara masoud taherinia Hassan Zalaqi Ahmed Sarlak
  10.30495/fed.2024.709339
  Abstract As the managers due to decision-making and stakeholders, namely investors, tend to predict the occurrence or non-occurrence of financial crisis in the organization under their management, so the present study is aimed to provide a model for predicting this cri More

  Abstract As the managers due to decision-making and stakeholders, namely investors, tend to predict the occurrence or non-occurrence of financial crisis in the organization under their management, so the present study is aimed to provide a model for predicting this crisis. To achieve the research purpose, smart web models including grey wolf, ant colony optimization, particle swarm optimization and genetics algorithms were used. For this purpose, the data obtained from the questionnaire completed by 20 experts in the quality section and the data obtained from 173 companies from 2009 to 2019 listed in the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) were used. 38 indices from the categories of macroeconomic indicators, industry factors, corporate characteristics, political, cultural and behavioral events were identified using the review of the theoretical basics. Then, 25 indicators with high impact on the financial crisis were selected using expert opinion and MICMAC analysis. Then, by reviewing the financial statements of 173 companies listed on the Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) and using Rahavard Novin software, the data were collected from 25 selected indicators and their impact on the financial crisis was examined using gray wolf, ant colony, particle swarm and genetics algorithm to determine the final model of the research. It was found that in terms of efficiency, the ant colony optimization method is the most efficient and the gray wolf method is the least efficient in predicting the financial crisis. Manuscript profile
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  2 - Personality types of stock market investors and their impact on managerial decisions: a study using agent-based simulation.
  Seyed Farhad Gooran Heydari Abbas  Toloui eshlaghi Ahmad Ebrahimi Mohammad Reza Motadel
  Given the complexities of the economy and considering the influential role of financial markets on the economy, as well as the importance of the economy for the country and society, methods and tools that can effectively and efficiently assess, predict, control, and gui More

  Given the complexities of the economy and considering the influential role of financial markets on the economy, as well as the importance of the economy for the country and society, methods and tools that can effectively and efficiently assess, predict, control, and guide the market and economy in a manner accessible to policymakers such as the Ministry of Economy and Finance, Securities and Exchange Organization, Central Bank, High Council of Stock Exchange, or Ministry of Industry, will be in a special position. This effectiveness and efficiency are achieved when attention to hidden layers of system relationships such as collective human behavior, which adds to the complexity of the market and economy, is not overlooked. In the present study, by employing the capacities of agent-based simulation in a mixed-method research, human behavior is combined using quantitative and qualitative methods and simulation technology as the third method of scientific research, in addition to comparative and inductive approaches. The research is descriptive and applied, and agent-to-agent simulations of real market players in NetLogo software with modeling the market, validation using Rust and Rand tests, and sensitivity analysis using the Borgonovo approach have been conducted. The results of the study indicate a direct relationship between investors' risk tolerance and stock market returns and the overall stock market index growth. With the prediction made in the designed model, in addition to risk type, the possibility of assessing and monitoring other behavioral characteristics of investors, as well as with consideration of the definition of other factors for other active market players, the study of their behavior's impact on the overall index and other important indicators is also available. Therefore, in this study, for the first time, the influence of the behaviors of macroeconomic variables on the behavior of all players present in the stock market was modeled and simulated using agent-based simulation capacities. Manuscript profile