Simulation of Basin Runoff Under Climate Change Conditions Based on SWAT Model
Subject Areas : Water resources managementMohammad Gharib Tavosi 1 , Mohsen Najarchi 2 , Mohammad Reza Jalali 3 , Hosein Mazaheri 4 , Saeid Shabanlou 5
1 - Ph.D. Candidate, Department of Civil Engineering, Arak Branch, Islamic Azad University, Arak, Iran
2 - Department of Civil Engineering, Arak Branch, Islamic Azad University, Arak, Iran.
3 - Department of Civil Engineering, Arak Branch, Islamic Azad University, Arak, Iran
4 - Department of Chemical Engineering, Arak Branch, Islamic Azad University, Arak, Iran.
5 - Department of Water Engineering, Kermanshah Branch, Islamic Azad University, Kermanshah, Iran.
Keywords: Pol-e-Shah Basin, Discharge Simulation, Climate Change, LARS-WG6,
Abstract :
Background and Aim: Evaluation of the climate change phenomenon and its probable consequences on basin hydrological processes will effectively help managers and planners of water resources in upcoming periods. The impact of climate change is evaluated through the simulation of hydrological processes via the runoff-precipitation physical model. Hydrological models provide a framework for evaluating the relationship between meteorology and water resources. The objective of this study is to simulate the runoff production in climate change condition based on climate scenarios and the SWAT model.
Method: Climate change and its consequences are one of the basic problems in water resources management, and it is necessary to estimate its effects in the future period. The area studied in this research is the Po-e-Shah catchment area with an area of 721 square kilometers, which is one of the sub-basins of the Alvand basin in Kermanshah province. This basin has many floods every year, which sometimes causes damages and flooding of agricultural lands. The Dirah River located in this basin is the source of water supply for part of the agricultural lands nearby and downstream of the river. Therefore, investigating the effect of climate change on the yield of this river is very important. In this research, AOGCM general circulation models are used to estimate monthly temperature and precipitation in the future period. The RMSE, MAE and NS indices are used to validate and evaluate the accuracy of estimation of general circulation models and data fitting. In this research, the runoff at the Pol-e-Shah hydrometry station is investigated first. Using SWAT CUP software, based on hydrometric station statistics and using SUFI2 optimization algorithm, parameters affecting flow rate are recalibrated for the period 1994 to 2011 and validated for the period 2012-2015. Then, in order to investigate the statistical indices of precipitation and temperature under the influence of climate change, using the LARS-WG6 software and using HADGEM2 and MIROC5 climate models under RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios, the micro-scaling and extraction of precipitation data and temperatures are performed for the statistical period from 2020 to 2080. Finally, to simulate the impact of climate change on runoff, the SWAT software is implemented under each of the climate scenarios in different statistical periods. Then, the results of monthly runoff simulation under climate scenarios are compared with recorded observational data.
Results: The results of the SWAT model efficiency evaluation indicate the proper performance of this model in the validation and verification period, so that the values of correlation coefficient and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient are obtained for the calibration stage 0.75 and 0.79 respectively and for the validation stage 0.71 and 0.61 respectively. The results of the SWAT model implementation show that in all climate scenarios, the pattern of monthly runoff production is consistent with the pattern of precipitation changes in different months in these scenarios. Therefore, in all future scenarios, the distribution of monthly runoff in different months is messed up compared to the base scenario so that in some months there is a decrease in runoff and in some months an increase in runoff. This shows the need to use dams and flow control structures to store water in high water months such as winter and spring and use it in low water months. The results indicate that the changes in the volume of annual production runoff under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate scenarios for the periods of 2045-2018 and 2072-2046 compared to the period of 2018-1991 vary between 60 and 87 million cubic meters on average. The amount of annual runoff volume changes in the period 2045-2018 is insignificant in most scenarios. In the period of 2072-2046, the volume of annual runoff is decreased between 3 and 10 percent in most scenarios.
Conclusion: The results showed that the decrease in precipitation and increase in temperature and thereby increase in evaporation cause changes in the current climate cycle, which leads to a decrease in runoff. Therefore, it is necessary to adapt and reduce the negative consequences of climate change on the water resources of the region to avoid from adverse effects of climate change on the water resources of the region by using the correct management of water resources and considering the needs of agriculture, drinking, industry and the environment in the coming years to lead to the best conservation of these resources. The results showed that in most of the climate scenarios, the precipitation displacement has happened. Therefore, it is necessary to change the cultivation pattern or change the date of cultivation of different crops according to the changes in precipitation and temperature changes in different months.
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